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Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas primaries 2024: Live results and analysis

Cori Bush could lose, and Michigan will pick its Senate candidates.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: August 6, 2024, 9:38 PM EDT

Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states have yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. This Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas are heading to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.

The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hangs in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member faces a serious challenger backed by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump is being challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.

Meanwhile, both parties will lock in their nominees for Michigan's critical Senate race, and Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri's next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields will be set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines will be drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors are breaking down the election results as they come in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Follow along with our full live blog below!

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
0 minutes ago

Slotkin flipped her seat in 2018

As Geoffrey just mentioned, the AP has projected that Elissa Slotkin will win the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan. She has backing from EMILYs List, which will help in November, given that that race is expected to be close. Slotkin is one of several Democratic women who flipped her district from red to blue in 2018, which was a record-setting year for Democratic women running and winning. She was also one of many "Obama alum" who ran and won that cycle.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

2 minutes ago

Schmidt has won the GOP primary for LaTurner's open seat

In the GOP primary for Rep. Jake LaTurner's open seat, the AP projects that former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt has secured his spot on the ballot this fall — and most likely a seat in Congress in this safe red district. With 43 percent of expected votes reporting, Schmidt has taken in 50 percent of the vote, while his main opponents, former LaTurner staffer Jeff Kahrs and rancher and feedlot owner Shawn Tiffany are each sitting around 20 percent.

In this Nov. 8, 2022, file photo, Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt, Republican candidate for governor of Kansas, announces that the race is too close to call and thanks people for staying, at a Republican watch party in Topeka, Kan.
Reed Hoffmann/AP, FILE

Both Kahrs and Tiffany tried to run to Schmidt's right and were close on his tail in fundraising, but Schmidt — who was also Kansas Republicans' gubernatorial nominee in 2022 — benefited from statewide name recognition, Trump's endorsement and the support of over $300,000 in outside spending, including $186,000 from Americans for Prosperity's super PAC. That was enough to secure him a win tonight.

—Tia Yang, 538

8 minutes ago

Kehoe's margin would be a blow to polls

Nathaniel, if that margin holds in the Missouri gubernatorial race, pollsters will have some 'splaining to do. For most of the year, Ashcroft had a comfortable lead, and Kehoe pulled even only at the beginning of July. Since then, the two have been neck and neck in one of the most-polled primary races of the cycle.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

9 minutes ago

Bailey has a comfortable lead for Missouri AG

According to the AP, 13 percent of the estimated vote is counted in the Republican primary for Missouri attorney general, and Bailey leads Scharf 63 percent to 37 percent. This is shaping up to be an easy win for the staunchly conservative incumbent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538