Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
The Associated Press (via The New York Times) is showing 12 percent of the expected vote already counted on the Democratic side. Write-ins — likely mostly votes for Biden — lead with 73 percent, followed by Phillips at 22 percent and Williamson at 4 percent. That would be a robust showing for the president.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
At around 4:30 p.m., Americans for Prosperity Regional Director Greg Moore said on X (formerly Twitter) that he'd heard from sources in the New Hampshire secretary of state office that towns around the state had gone through more than 80 percent of GOP primary ballots available statewide, and that some towns were calling to ask for more to avoid running out. Polls in much of the state closed at 7 p.m Eastern, but a few places are open until 8 p.m.
Now, the Koch-affiliated AFP endorsed Haley to much fanfare earlier this cycle, so high turnout certainly would make Haley supporters feel hopeful about the number of independent voters taking part in the primary, who generally are more likely to support Haley than Trump. Still, ABC News's current total expected vote total in New Hampshire is 330,000 votes. Although that figure may change as the night wears on — it could go higher or lower — that many votes would represent nearly 30 percent of the state's entire voting-eligible population — that is, anyone who is eligible to register and vote. A turnout rate at that mark would be on par with the highest turnout in the state's modern history, which was the highly-competitive 2008 Democratic presidential primary.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Voters head to the polls in high-stakes primary
Four years ago, Democratic primary voters faced a situation similar to Republicans today: they were choosing a presidential nominee to unseat an incumbent with a low approval rating. But there's an important difference. Democrats emphasized electability, and though Biden was few Democrats' top pick — having finished fourth in Iowa and then fifth in New Hampshire — he benefited from the perception that he would run well against Trump.
For today's Republicans, the situation is much simpler: Trump is both the overwhelming first choice and the candidate they view as most electable. In a November 2023 survey that I conducted with the pollster YouGov, I found that 66 percent of Republican primary voters nationally backed Trump, but also that 72 percent of them thought that Trump was most likely to beat Biden. Despite some polling showing Haley running better against Biden nationally, most Republican primary voters see no trade-off between backing their preferred candidate (Trump) and winning in November.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
In 2016, New Hampshire bailed Trump out after a disappointing finish in Iowa. Trump lost the Iowa caucuses by 3 percentage points to Sen. Ted Cruz before going on to win the New Hampshire primary decisively, beating then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich by nearly 20 points.
This time around, Trump won Iowa with an outright majority, but polls suggest that the contest in New Hampshire may be closer, even if Trump wins. What changed?
For one, in the eight intervening years, Trump’s base of support has shifted in subtle but meaningful ways. In 2016, Trump was an insurgent candidate who was challenged on the right by Cruz. But having served as president, Trump now defines the party’s right wing, and he enjoys overwhelming support from some of the party’s core constituencies: evangelical Christians, people who identify as Republicans and older (white) voters. And those voters are more numerous in the Iowa caucuses than the New Hampshire primary, giving Haley more of a chance in New Hampshire than she had in Iowa.
For example, in 2016, Trump did equally well in New Hampshire with voters who identified as Republicans and voters who identified as independents. In fact, part of his 2016 appeal was to those who were somewhat disaffected with the two parties. But in Iowa last week, Trump did much better among Republicans (54 percent) than among independents (42 percent) — and many more Iowa caucusgoers were Republican identifiers (82 percent) than we are likely to see today in New Hampshire, where undeclared voters can participate.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
