New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

The capital city of Concord has just about fully reported now, based on data from ABC News. With 95 percent of the expected vote reported, Haley leads there by 8 points, 54 percent to 46 percent. That sounds great for her, but this is probably short of where she needs to be. Concord is a solid Democratic-leaning place — Biden won it by about 32 points in 2020 — so the registered independents here might be more favorable to her. But in the 2016 GOP primary, Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson combined for 41 percent in Concord, yet Trump has 46 percent right now. To have any chance, Haley probably needs places like this to be even more robust for her.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

One issue where Haley stands out is in foreign policy. Her history as Trump's ambassador to the United Nations gives her experience, and her policy positions place her at odds with the frontrunner. The Republican Party has followed Trump's lead in recent year's and become more isolationist. But Haley has taken a more traditional stance and has called for continuing aid to Ukraine, an issue that's becoming less popular with her party's voters. But she also has taken a hard line against China and supports continuing aid for Israel, which the Republican base also supports.

—Monica Potts, 538

Looking at towns where the vote is mostly counted, Trump is overperforming his 2016 benchmarks — but then again, he should be, since in 2016 he won with 35 percent of the vote in a many-candidate field. Trump will hope that the returns look like those in Farmington, where he's currently up 29 percentage points compared to his 2016 margin. But Haley will hope they look more like Newmarket or Conway, where Trump is only up by 15 or 16 percentage points.

— Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

If voters in New Hampshire are thinking about the general election, Dan, that could be a problem for Trump. Last week, just 52 percent of Iowa caucusgoers voted for Trump. But according to a December YouGov/CBS News poll, likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters view the former president differently than those in Iowa. In that survey, 64 percent of likely voters in Iowa said that Trump would definitely beat Biden in November, while only 51 percent of New Hampshire voters said the same. Voters who said they were considering other candidates also had different reasons in the two states: 70 percent of likely New Hampshire voters who were considering voting against Trump said that one reason, of those provided to them, was that Trump is controversial, while only 57 percent of Iowans considering other candidates said the same. And more New Hampshirites were concerned about Trump's ability to beat Biden than Iowans considering other candidates.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538