Jan 23, 2024, 7:54 PM EST
The diploma divide in New Hampshire
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on
Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Last Updated: January 23, 2024, 4:30 PM EST
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
Latest headlines:
- Jan 23, 2024, 8:14 PM EST
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- Jan 23, 2024, 7:30 PM EST
Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
Jan 23, 2024, 7:54 PM EST
Haley probably running behind where she needs to be
The capital city of Concord has just about fully reported now, based on data from ABC News. With 95 percent of the expected vote reported, Haley leads there by 8 points, 54 percent to 46 percent. That sounds great for her, but this is probably short of where she needs to be. Concord is a solid Democratic-leaning place — Biden won it by about 32 points in 2020 — so the registered independents here might be more favorable to her. But in the 2016 GOP primary, Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson combined for 41 percent in Concord, yet Trump has 46 percent right now. To have any chance, Haley probably needs places like this to be even more robust for her.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Jan 23, 2024, 7:52 PM EST
Why might voters choose Haley?
One issue where Haley stands out is in foreign policy. Her history as Trump's ambassador to the United Nations gives her experience, and her policy positions place her at odds with the frontrunner. The Republican Party has followed Trump's lead in recent year's and become more isolationist. But Haley has taken a more traditional stance and has called for continuing aid to Ukraine, an issue that's becoming less popular with her party's voters. But she also has taken a hard line against China and supports continuing aid for Israel, which the Republican base also supports.
—Monica Potts, 538
CJ Gunther/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Jan 23, 2024, 7:51 PM EST
Where Trump stands relative to 2016
Looking at towns where the vote is mostly counted, Trump is overperforming his 2016 benchmarks — but then again, he should be, since in 2016 he won with 35 percent of the vote in a many-candidate field. Trump will hope that the returns look like those in Farmington, where he's currently up 29 percentage points compared to his 2016 margin. But Haley will hope they look more like Newmarket or Conway, where Trump is only up by 15 or 16 percentage points.
— Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
