New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: January 23, 2024, 8:37 PM EST

Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.

ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
ByJacob Rubashkin logo
Jan 23, 2024, 8:37 PM EST

Why should Trump start debating now?

Dan, I'm not sure why Trump would risk getting on stage with her, especially when he can just snipe from Truth Social or in whatever town halls get scheduled between now and then. Avoiding the debates has worked wonderfully for Trump so far, and now that he's won New Hampshire, I don't see him adjusting that strategy. I think it would take an actual loss for him to feel pressured to show up. In fact, I don't think we'll see Trump on a debate stage at all this cycle, in the primary or general election.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

ByDan Hopkins logo
Jan 23, 2024, 8:33 PM EST

Haley tries to goad Trump into debating

In her post-primary speech, Haley tries to goad Trump into a debate. The question is: can Trump resist calls to debate in the long interregnum between now and the South Carolina primary? He has resisted them so far.

Republican presidential candidate former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley delivers remarks at her primary night rally at the Grappone Conference Center on Jan. 23, 2024 in Concord, N.H.
Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

ByMeredith Conroy logo
Jan 23, 2024, 8:32 PM EST

Does electability matter to Republicans?

I wrote about this earlier, but the “electability” question usually plagues women who run for the presidency because of the perception that a woman can’t win the White House (and hasn’t yet!). But Haley uses the electability argument to support her candidacy over and over again, and is in her speech now, in New Hampshire.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks during her New Hampshire presidential primary election night rally, in Concord, N.H., Jan. 23, 2024.
Brian Snyder/Reuters

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

ByJacob Rubashkin logo
Jan 23, 2024, 8:23 PM EST

Hanover still very anti-Trump

The New York Times is reporting more than 95 percent of the vote in Hanover, where Dartmouth is located. As expected, voters there still really don't like Trump! Haley leads him there, 86 percent to 13 percent. That's actually a slight improvement for Trump over his 2016 mark, when he won just 11 percent of the vote there. And remember that in Iowa, the only county Haley won, Johnson County, was home to the University of Iowa. Haley is doing great in the college town primary, but coming up short elsewhere.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

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