New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

The presidential primaries aren’t the only races of note happening in New Hampshire tonight. There are also special elections for two seats in New Hampshire’s closely divided state House (Republicans have a 198-195 majority, with three independents and four vacancies, including those two).

And it looks like Republicans are on track to flip one of those seats that was previously held by a Democrat: According to Decision Desk HQ, Republican Michael Murphy leads Democrat Edith Tucker in Coos County District 6, 57 percent to 43 percent, with an estimated 82 percent of the vote counted. Although Biden carried this district by 12 points in 2020, the contested Republican presidential primary probably led to disproportionate turnout among Republicans.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

As more data comes in, we can get more precise estimates of the factors that predict where in New Hampshire Trump is doing especially well. One answer won't surprise readers: if one town's population has more college-educated adults by 20 percentage points, Trump's average vote share drops by 11 points. But in a state with a small immigrant population, it's noteworthy that towns with more foreign-born residents also tend to give lower levels of support to Trump.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Astute point from an astute guy.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

In 2020, the general election polls missed Trump's support in key states, and the election came down to the wire. So far in 2024, though, polls don't seem to be understating Trump support. We'll see if that continues to hold.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor