Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
Dan mentioned that voters see more ideological space between Haley and Trump, than they did between DeSantis and Trump. It's worth noting that Haley will appear more moderate to lots of people, just because she is a woman.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
The presidential primaries aren’t the only races of note happening in New Hampshire tonight. There are also special elections for two seats in New Hampshire’s closely divided state House (Republicans have a 198-195 majority, with three independents and four vacancies, including those two).
And it looks like Republicans are on track to flip one of those seats that was previously held by a Democrat: According to Decision Desk HQ, Republican Michael Murphy leads Democrat Edith Tucker in Coos County District 6, 57 percent to 43 percent, with an estimated 82 percent of the vote counted. Although Biden carried this district by 12 points in 2020, the contested Republican presidential primary probably led to disproportionate turnout among Republicans.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
As more data comes in, we can get more precise estimates of the factors that predict where in New Hampshire Trump is doing especially well. One answer won't surprise readers: if one town's population has more college-educated adults by 20 percentage points, Trump's average vote share drops by 11 points. But in a state with a small immigrant population, it's noteworthy that towns with more foreign-born residents also tend to give lower levels of support to Trump.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Astute point from an astute guy.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
