Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
Geoffrey, I wonder if Nevada will factor into Haley’s decision about whether to drop out. If she does get some favorable media attention from winning the primary, maybe that will improve her standing in South Carolina. Alternatively, if “none of the above” embarrasses her, maybe she’ll drop out.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Haley focused her speech on South Carolina's Feb. 24 primary. But that's not technically the next contest in the Republican presidential primary. The next Republican electoral event is actually Nevada's GOP primary on Feb. 6. However, the Nevada GOP opted against using the state-run primary and instead will use caucuses on Feb. 8 to allocate delegates to candidates. As a result, the Nevada primary is a kind of "beauty contest" — a vote with no bearing on delegate allocation.
But it gets a bit stranger from there. As part of the filing rules for the caucuses, the Nevada GOP required candidates to not enter the primary taking place two days earlier. Some candidates, including Trump, didn't file for the primary. But Haley, perhaps thinking Trump winning the caucuses was a sure thing, filed for the primary and not the caucuses. So now Haley is essentially unopposed in the primary — there are a few minor candidates and drop-outs like Tim Scott and Mike Pence — and Trump is unopposed in the caucuses. Will Haley be able to play up a win in Nevada? Unclear.
But it's also possible that pro-Trump Republicans could make a concerted effort to take advantage of Nevada's unusual "none of these candidates" ballot option. Encouraging Trump voters to cast a vote for none of the above could keep Haley from winning with a majority, should enough choose it. All of this may feel about as crazy as putting your life's savings on black at the roulette table. However, state parties can opt against using a state-run primary to allocate their delegates and instead use a party-run event like a caucus — there are many examples throughout the history of presidential nomination contests. It's just not usually something that happens in an early-voting state.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Dan mentioned that voters see more ideological space between Haley and Trump, than they did between DeSantis and Trump. It's worth noting that Haley will appear more moderate to lots of people, just because she is a woman.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
The presidential primaries aren’t the only races of note happening in New Hampshire tonight. There are also special elections for two seats in New Hampshire’s closely divided state House (Republicans have a 198-195 majority, with three independents and four vacancies, including those two).
And it looks like Republicans are on track to flip one of those seats that was previously held by a Democrat: According to Decision Desk HQ, Republican Michael Murphy leads Democrat Edith Tucker in Coos County District 6, 57 percent to 43 percent, with an estimated 82 percent of the vote counted. Although Biden carried this district by 12 points in 2020, the contested Republican presidential primary probably led to disproportionate turnout among Republicans.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
