New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: January 23, 2024, 4:30 PM EST

Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.

ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.

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Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
Jacob Rubashkin Image
ByJacob Rubashkin
Jan 23, 2024, 9:46 PM EST

Trump is angry

Trump's victory speech tonight struck me by how angry it was, especially after his attempt to be a little more conciliatory following Iowa. He wouldn't even mention Haley by name, calling her an imposter instead. He suggested her ally Sununu was on drugs, and brought on Ramaswamy to launch more invectives in her direction. If you're Haley, and you relish getting under Trump's skin in a way that few other candidates have managed so far, why are you going to drop out? Haley is wily and has delighted in running against those who have dismissed her for as long as she's been in politics, so I imagine speeches like Trump's tonight only fuel her.

Republican presidential hopeful and former US President Donald Trump reacts during an Election Night Party in Nashua, New Hampshire, on Jan. 23, 2024.
Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Meredith Conroy Image
ByMeredith Conroy
Jan 23, 2024, 9:45 PM EST

Ramaswamy says Haley should drop out

Trump gave Ramaswamy 60 seconds on the mic, who used his time to suggest that Haley staying in the race is the "ugly underbelly of American politics." In political science we call that "exit talk," and according to research, women who run for the presidency have been subject to more "exit talk" than men.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Monica Potts Image
ByMonica Potts
Jan 23, 2024, 9:41 PM EST

Trump wants everyone to know that he is winning

In a rambling speech with his former challengers Sen. Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy behind him, Trump criticized Haley for giving what he called a victory speech. "She failed badly," he said. He also had words for Gov. Chris Sununu, who'd endorsed her. He said that he would beat Biden and also claimed again, falsely, that he won in 2020. Ramaswamy took over the mic to praise Trump before Trump transitioned to immigration, repeating many of his false claims about open borders. In all, he was ready to dismiss Haley and pivot to the general election.

PHOTO: Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump delivers remarks alongside supporters, campaign staff and family members during his primary night rally, Jan. 23, 2024 in Nashua, New Hampshire
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump delivers remarks alongside supporters, campaign staff and family members during his primary night rally, Jan. 23, 2024 in Nashua, New Hampshire.
Alex Wong/Getty Images

—Monica Potts, 538

ByMary Radcliffe
Jan 23, 2024, 9:40 PM EST

Biden outperforming his polls

As Dan mentioned earlier, the pre-election polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire didn’t seem to be missing Trump voters. But if Biden stays at 67 percent, as Nathaniel observed, it looks like polls of the Democratic primary in New Hampshire might have understated Biden’s support by quite a bit.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

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