New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

At a certain point, this contest will be about delegate counts and not perceptions. But we haven’t reached that point yet.

Trump’s speech was highly focused on Nikki Haley, suggesting that, despite his victory tonight, she might be making the former president feel a bit threatened. He also continued to spread a clear falsehood about how the New Hampshire primary works — it’s not an open primary, and you have to change your party registration by October 6 in order to cast a primary vote.

However, narratives about outperforming expectations can only fuel a candidate for so long. It’s far from clear what the next few weeks hold for Haley — can she hang on? Will she be able to pick up delegates in later contests? Or was New Hampshire her best shot at a primary victory?

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

While Trump did win today by what’s looking to be a high single-digit/low double-digit margin, it’s worth noting that New Hampshire primary voters really don’t look like the rest of the Republican electorate. In a January poll from Suffolk University/USA Today/The Boston Globe, New Hampshire GOP primary voters were asked to rank how enthusiastic they were about Trump as the Republican nominee on a scale from 1 to 10. Voters were about equally likely to rank their enthusiasm for Trump as a 1 (33 percent) as they were a 10 (34 percent), with the remaining third of voters somewhere in between. Compare that to a national poll, taken around the same time, from YouGov/The Economist, in which 61 percent of Republican respondents said they would be enthusiastic about Trump as the nominee, and another 23 percent said they would be satisfied but not enthusiastic.

Haley’s low double-digit loss tonight might be among the best results she can hope for nationwide. Unless we see some dramatic change in the race (unlikely), tonight’s results continue to suggest that this contest is largely over, and Trump is highly likely to be the Republican nominee in November.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

I agree with what Jacob said above. Trump's attempts to dismiss Haley might serve to make her more committed to staying in. There's one thing that Haley's right about: Most Americans are actually not that hyped about a rematch between Biden and Trump. They would like someone else to vote for, in theory. But it's often some theoretical, perfect candidate. Up until tonight, Republican primary voters, in polls or in real-life voting, haven't really settled on one of the many Trump challengers. It's possible the winds could change and Haley could win them going forward. But loyalty to Trump has become a litmus test for Republicans, and it's not clear how many of those voters actually exist and are ready to vote for Haley. But if Haley's committed to finding them, the primary might not be over.

—Monica Potts, 538

With about half the expected votes in, both Trump and Haley have given their speeches, and we're getting ready to wrap up here. Haley's so far overperformed her polls by a few points and vowed to stay in the race, but didn't come close to an upset. What are everyone's final takeaways from tonight's result?

—Tia Yang, 538