New York 3rd District special election: Suozzi projected to defeat Pilip

Democrats cut into Republicans’ already narrow House majority.

By538 and ABC News via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: February 13, 2024, 9:57 PM EST

Democrat Tom Suozzi has won the special election in New York’s 3rd District, defeating Republican Mazi Pilip to flip a House seat from red to blue. (The seat was formerly held by Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from Congress in December after a series of scandals.) As a result, Republicans’ already narrow House majority has been reduced to 219-213.

Throughout the night, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors have been live-blogging the results in real time and breaking down what (if anything) they mean for November. Read our full analysis below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
ByJacob Rubashkin
Feb 13, 2024, 9:57 PM EST

A near-upset in Oklahoma?

In the contest everyone is really here to talk about, the special election to fill Oklahoma's 39th state House district, Republicans are only narrowly escaping embarrassment in a district Trump carried by 26 points in 2020. The Edmond-based seat was vacant following the GOP incumbent's resignation over a DUI (scandal penalty, anyone?), and Republican attorney Erick Harris is leading Democratic accountant Regan Raff just 50 percent - 45 percent, according to Decision Desk HQ.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

ByBrittany Shepherd
Feb 13, 2024, 9:56 PM EST

He works hard for the money

Nathaniel, I wonder how much he could charge for a Big Board-style elections analysis on Cameo. I'd put my money on 538 dollars.

— Brittany Shepherd, ABC News

ByNathaniel Rakich
Feb 13, 2024, 9:58 PM EST

There's a new member of Election Twitter

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

ByBrittany Shepherd
Feb 13, 2024, 9:50 PM EST

The Squad shrugs off Suozzi ties

Pilip and Republicans in the district attempted to smear Suozzi with an attack they figured would brandish him with a big, fat Scarlet Letter here: Friend of the Squad. But Rep. Alexandria Ocascio-Cortez on CNN just now put major distance between her progressive group and the incredibly moderate Suozzi, who is the sort of Democrat who likely wouldn't even know what a DSA rose emoji on social media means: "The idea that we're part of the same kind of cadre in Congress is incorrect, it's wrong. But that doesn't mean that we're not on the same team." AOC went on to call Pilip's attempt to paint Suozzi as part of merry band of lefty Congressional troublemakers as "desperate."

And if early returns from Queens are any indication, it seems like those attempts didn't quite land.

—Brittany Shepherd, ABC News