New York, Colorado and Utah primaries 2024: Bowman loses, Boebert wins

On Long Island, Democrats hope to seriously contest the 1st District, a seat Trump would've won by 2 points in 2020, which is currently held by first-term Republican Rep. Nick LaLota. Former CNN political commentator John Avlon and organic chemist Nancy Goroff are battling for the Democratic nomination. Goroff has outraised Avlon $2.3 million to $1.8 million, but her advantage stems from $1.2 million in self-funding.

Avlon has received many endorsements from party leaders, who seem to view him as the more electable pick. In the same vein, the WelcomePAC has spent nearly $1.7 million on ads that claim Goroff — who lost here as the Democratic nominee in 2020 — is a choice the party "can't afford." But Goroff's campaign has promoted her backing from pro-abortion rights groups EMILYs List and Planned Parenthood while hitting Avlon for his past ties to the GOP, including his work as an aide to Republican Rudy Giuliani during Giuliani's tenure as New York City's mayor.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for Senate, House and governor. Overall, 19 people of color — 12 Democrats and seven Republicans — are running in these contests, all for the House.

Each state has a candidate of color running in at least one race, but New York, which also has the most contests overall, is home to 10 of these candidates, including former Rep. Mondaire Jones, who is running in the 17th Congressional District. He tried to switch districts in 2022 due to redistricting and lost the primary in the 10th District, but this year he is running unopposed and hoping to unseat Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.

Finally, there are currently only four Black Republicans in the House, but Burns could add to that number if he wins his runoff in South Carolina (he is slightly favored against Biggs). Meanwhile, one of those four incumbents, Rep. Burgess Owens, is unopposed in Utah's 4th District.

—Monica Potts, 538

In Tuesday's marquee race, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman could lose renomination against Westchester County Executive George Latimer in New York's dark blue 16th District. This race is defined by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Gaza conflict, the influence of pro-Israel groups and controversies about Bowman's past behavior. Bowman has joined with fellow members of the progressive "Squad" and some other Democrats to criticize and oppose U.S. support for Israel, a position that made him a major target for pro-Israel groups.

Bowman lacks a strong electoral record, having won only 54 percent of the primary vote in his first reelection campaign in 2022. He also attracted scrutiny last September when he pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol Hill office building just before a high-profile vote to avoid a government shutdown, for which he was censured by the House and had to pay a fine. On top of this, old blog posts by Bowman came to light in January that included conspiracy theories about the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. All of this has helped boost the primary challenge from Latimer, who's also built up a strong local political reputation in Westchester County — where 9 in 10 of the district's voters live, according to Daily Kos Elections.

Still, the big story is Latimer's support from pro-Israel donors and organizations. Latimer has raised $5.8 million, $2.4 million of which came via individual donors who used the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as a conduit to contribute to his campaign. This has helped give him a financial leg up on Bowman, who has raised $4.3 million. And the monetary disparity grows far starker when we look at outside spending. Groups have spent a whopping $17.7 million either opposing Bowman or supporting Latimer, according to OpenSecrets, while they've spent only $3.0 million attacking Latimer or boosting Bowman. As a result, this has turned into the most expensive House primary on record, according to AdImpact.

The principal group behind the massive spending is United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, which has forked out $14.6 million on the race to take down Bowman. Despite the pro-Israel connection, the group's ads rarely mention the ongoing conflict, instead criticizing Bowman on issues such as not supporting President Joe Biden's position on a major infrastructure package in 2021 and a debt ceiling deal in 2023. Bowman and his allies haven't taken this lying down. In the last primary debate, Bowman attacked the "racist MAGA Republicans" — a reference to AIPAC's bipartisan sources of financial backing — supporting Latimer, a criticism leveled in ads put out by Bowman and outside groups backing him.

The most recent survey of the race — an Emerson College/The Hill/WPIX poll from early June — found Latimer ahead of Bowman 48 percent to 31 percent, which signals just how in danger Bowman is of becoming the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination in 2024.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

The Republican primary in Colorado's 8th District — one of the most competitive House districts in the nation — is causing a bit of intraparty drama (a common theme tonight). Republicans here are hoping to unseat first-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Yadira Caraveo in this highly competitive district that spans the Denver suburbs and rural counties to the north. (Caraveo is the first person to hold the seat, which was created after apportionment in the 2022 cycle.) At first blush, Gabe Evans would seem like a shoo-in for this race. He's an Army vet, former police officer and former state representative who has outraised his competitor, and he's been endorsed by both Trump and the Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity. But his competitor, retired doctor and former state Rep. Janak Joshi, got the controversial state party endorsement. As a result, it's unclear which direction the voters in this district may ultimately go, and if the candidate they choose will be strong enough to defeat Caraveo.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538