New York, Colorado and Utah primaries 2024: Bowman loses, Boebert wins

Utah may be safely Republican, but the MAGA faction of the party is looking to pick up seats from the traditional Republican faction in Tuesday's primaries. And the biggest prize of all is the state's open U.S. Senate seat, currently held by anti-Trump Sen. Mitt Romney.

The front-runner to replace Romney is Rep. John Curtis, whose temperament — and attitude toward Trump — are closest to Romney's. Although he hasn't taken a high-profile stand against Trump like voting for impeachment, Curtis declined to endorse Trump during this year's presidential primaries and has avoided commenting on Trump's legal issues. Another tell: Though Romney hasn't made an endorsement, much of the incumbent's political operation is behind Curtis, who is known on Capitol Hill for being the rare Republican to talk about climate change and for owning 300 pairs of quirky dress socks.

Curtis faces three opponents who are, to varying degrees, more enthusiastic about Trump. Former state House Speaker Brad Wilson has raised the most money ($2.0 million from donors, $3.0 million from himself), but his efforts to strike a happy medium between moderate and MAGA (he introduced a resolution to pay tribute to Trump shortly after his second impeachment but also blocked an effort to censure Romney for voting to convict; he endorsed Trump for president, but only after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out) may end up pleasing no one. Meanwhile, businessman Jason Walton has vocally defended Trump and is well funded thanks to a $2.5 million loan to his own campaign, but Trump himself opted to support underfunded Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs instead.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

With 59 percent of the expected vote reporting in South Carolina's 3rd District GOP runoff, Biggs leads Burns about 53 percent to 47 percent, according to the AP. Looking at the returns and the county-level expected vote, Burns probably will gain some ground as we get more votes from Pickens and Greenville counties, which are counties he leads in and which have among the largest number of outstanding votes left to be tallied. However, with more than half the expected vote in, Biggs is probably at least a small favorite to win at this point.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In the solidly red 24th District in Upstate New York, Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney faces a primary challenge from businessman Mario Fratto, who held Tenney to a 14-point win in her 2022 primary race. Having previously represented a seat located more in central New York, Tenney opted to run in the new 24th District in 2022 after redistricting even though she previously represented very little of it. Her weak performance partly reflected that unfamiliarity, but she's now a better-known quantity to voters in the region (and the 24th didn't change that much on a new map implemented earlier this year). Still, Fratto has tried to get to Tenney's right by claiming she's a "RINO" — Republican in name only — who has been insufficiently conservative in office. He's self-funded most of his challenge, raising $508,000 overall, but that's put him well behind Tenney's $2.0 million in receipts. Tenney has accused Fratto of being close to Nick Fuentes, a white supremacist and antisemitic leader — a claim Fratto denies. But she also felt threatened enough to run ads promoting her endorsement from Trump and attacking Fratto as "dangerously liberal."

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In the central New York-based 22nd District, Republican Rep. Brandon Williams ranks among Democrats' top targets in the House because Biden would have carried this seat by 11 percentage points in 2020, according to Daily Kos Elections. The two-way race for the Democratic nomination features DeWitt Town Councilor Sarah Klee Hood and state Sen. John Mannion in what looks to be a competitive tilt. Klee Hood narrowly lost the 2022 Democratic primary here, and she's led in fundraising with $1.4 million to Mannion's $869,000. However, Mannion represents nearly 30 percent of this seat in the state Senate, and the former high school teacher has also received $302,000 in outside spending support from teachers unions.

The only survey we've seen of this race was a late March poll by GBAO for Mannion's campaign that found him ahead 42 percent to 20 percent, but that was three months ago. Klee Hood, an Air Force veteran, has emphasized her unwavering support for abortion rights, a potential opening due to criticism Mannion has received for past comments in which he stated support for existing restrictions on abortion access. In his ads, Mannion has promised to defend abortion rights and has highlighted his long career in education.

But last week, a group of former aides to Mannion accused him of creating a hostile work environment by screaming and cursing at them, while also accusing Mannion's wife of discomforting behavior and making transphobic remarks. Mannion pushed back at the allegations, arguing that he'd never had a workplace complaint filed against him and questioning the late-breaking claims as a "false political attack."

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538