Will New York’s 1st District be competitive this fall?
While Democrats see New York as central to their path back to the House majority, the 1st District is often the red-headed step-child of the half-dozen competitive Empire State seats. National Democratic strategists are far more excited about the prospect of beating Republican incumbents in the 4th District (Anthony D’Esposito), 17th District (Mike Lawler), 19th District (Marc Molinaro) and 22nd District (Brandon Williams) than they are about taking on LaLota.
Long Island has been very difficult for Democrats not named Tom Suozzi over the past three years, and the 1st was even redrawn to be one Biden would have carried narrowly in 2020 to one Trump would have carried narrowly. Avlon will need to leverage his national network to get his contest more attention and funding, especially given how expensive it is to air TV ads in the New York media market.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections