Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

With Biden and Trump having sewn up their party's nominations, the Pennsylvania presidential primary is an afterthought today. But the Keystone State will definitely be at the forefront of the general election campaign: In 2016, Trump carried it by 0.7 percentage points, and in 2020, Biden won it by 1.2 points, making Pennsylvania one of the most competitive states in the country. And with 19 electoral votes, the state is the largest battleground-state prize in the Electoral College (if you don't include Florida, which has 30 electoral votes but may have a GOP lean now).

Early polling for the November election confirms the expectation that Pennsylvania will once again feature a hard-fought campaign. 538 hasn't released its general election polling averages yet — they're coming very soon — but Trump and Biden are running close to even in recent polls. The most recent one we have, a mid-April survey from Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research/Fox News, found them tied at 48 percent, with Trump edging ahead by 2 points when third-party candidates like Robert Kennedy Jr. were included as options.

Given Pennsylvania's importance, it's no surprise that both Biden and Trump are heavily focused on it. Biden just completed a campaign swing through the state last week, including a stop at his childhood home of Scranton. Just days earlier, Trump held a campaign rally in the Lehigh Valley ahead of the start of his hush-money trial in New York City. There'll certainly be more of that in Pennsylvania — and a gazillion attack ads on television and digital airwaves — before Election Day.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

We'll be keeping an eye on how candidates of color perform in tonight's House primaries. Racial diversity in Congress has steadily grown over the past two decades, with nonwhite representatives skewing heavily Democratic. In today's races, six candidates of color are running in Democratic primaries compared with four Republican hopefuls.

In the Pittsburgh-area 12th District, Democratic Rep. Summer Lee is seeking a second term after winning a fiercely contested primary by less than 1,000 votes in 2022, when she became the first Black woman to be elected to Congress from Pennsylvania. This year, she faces a primary challenge from Bhavini Patel, an Indian-American small business owner and Edgewood Borough Council member. Patel has aligned herself as a more moderate, pro-Israel foil to Lee, a member of The Squad — a group composed entirely of young progressives of color — who was heavily targeted by AIPAC in her first congressional bid.

Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans, another Black incumbent, is facing a primary challenger in Tracey Gordon, former Philadelphia register of wills. The majority Black, deep-blue 3rd District spans much of central and west Philadelphia, where tonight's winner is all but guaranteed to win the seat in November. The scandal-embroiled Gordon is an underdog candidate here, though she has some experience with that: She defeated a 40-year incumbent in the 2019 primary on the way to becoming the city's register of wills, but lost her reelection bid last May.

A six-way Democratic primary in the 10th District includes Harrisburg City Council member Shamaine Daniels and Blake Lynch, a former local radio executive. Daniels was the Democratic nominee in 2022, but was defeated by Republican Rep. Scott Perry, the former chair of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus. Whoever wins tonight will face Perry in November.

On the Republican side, attorney Maria Montero is one of three Republicans vying to face 7th District Democratic Rep. Susan Wild in what is anticipated to be a highly competitive general election. Entrepreneur Aaron Bashir, former Army chaplain Alfeia Goodwin and business executive James Hayes are each running unopposed in today's Republican primaries in their districts. All three are assured a spot on the ballot in November, but face long odds against Democratic incumbents in solidly blue districts.

—Irena Li, 538

Abortion is likely to once again be a big issue in this year's election cycle, and perhaps a winning issue for Democrats. The issue could divide Republicans, as some voters may prefer their party to focus on other issues, while others prefer candidates who promise to push for a national abortion ban. To that end, tonight we're tracking Republican primary candidates whose campaign websites use the phrase "pro-life," "sanctity of life," "right to life," "no abortion," "against abortion" or "unborn" and do not say abortion is an issue of states' rights:

Abortion remains legal, with restrictions, in Pennsylvania. It was a critical issue during the state's 2022 gubernatorial election. That year, Republicans in the state House and Senate and their candidate for governor, Doug Mastriano, promised to pass abortion restrictions, but voters elected Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, who supports access to abortion (and handed Democrats a bare majority in the state House as well).

Whether these candidates win or lose could tell us more about the potential battle lines on abortion in their respective districts, and in this critical swing state, for the general election.

—Monica Potts, 538

In Bucks County, just outside Philadelphia, steadfast moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is facing a primary challenge from the right for his seat in the 1st District. Mark Houck is an anti-abortion activist and head of a nonprofit ministry group for Catholic men who made a name for himself as a bit of an anti-abortion martyr when he was charged with assault (but found not guilty) after shoving a 72-year-old clinic volunteer in 2021 while protesting outside a Planned Parenthood in Philadelphia. Fitzpatrick was first elected to Congress in 2016, succeeding his brother (the late former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick). He's faced a primary challenger in every election since, but has always triumphed.

Fitzpatrick has made a reputation for himself locally and on the Hill as a moderate who keeps his distance from the MAGA right. He's got a track record of bipartisanship and moderate policy stances in Congress and refused to endorse Doug Mastriano, the GOP's far-right nominee for governor in 2022. He even snubbed Trump's visit to Bucks County earlier this month. His position on abortion has been a bit less clear — there's no mention of abortion on his reelection campaign website — though he has drawn ire from abortion rights groups. He's certainly no culture warrior like Houck, whose organization opposes "same-sex attraction disorders" and pornography, and works to shut down "sexually oriented businesses."

But whoever wins this primary isn't necessarily a shoe-in for the seat. Fitzpatrick or Houck will be going up against Democrat Ashley Ehasz. Fitzpatrick defeated Ehasz in 2022 by 10 percentage points, but the area is purple and shows signs of shifting blue — Biden won the district in 2020, and Democrats swept all five seats up for grabs in a recent local school board election. Fitzpatrick is the lone Republican in the districts surrounding Philadelphia, though his is the whitest of those collar counties and the conservative areas of the county are increasingly polarized. That could mean Fitzpatrick faces serious competition from Houck in the party primary, but Houck's far-right leanings could tilt the general election contest toward Democrats if he makes the ballot in November.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538