Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

Today, five Democratic women will be up for reelection in the House: Reps. Summer Lee, Susan Wild, Madeleine Dean, Mary Scanlon and Chrissy Houlahan. Of these incumbents, only Lee is facing a challenger. In 2022 Lee, now a member of the progressive group known as The Squad, narrowly defeated Steve Irwin in the Democratic primary despite heavy opposition spending by AIPAC. This year, Lee's challenger is Bhavini Patel, an Indian-American small business owner. As Irena mentioned, Patel has aligned herself as a more moderate, pro-Israel foil to Lee, who's been endorsed by a full slate of progressive groups including the Justice Dems, Working Families Party, Congressional Progressive Caucus, Sunrise Movement and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Beyond the Democratic women running as incumbents, a couple running in open primaries for competitive races in November are on the ballot today, too. In the 1st District, Army Apache helicopter pilot Ashley Ehasz is running unopposed to face Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in November. Ehasz lost to Fitzpatrick in 2022 by about 10 percentage points and is backed by the pro-choice organization, EMILY's List.

In the 10th district, two women, Shamaine Daniels and Janelle Stelson, are running in a crowded primary field to face Rep. Scott Perry in November. Daniels lost to Perry in 2022 by less than 10 points. But it is Stelson who may have front-runner status, and has the backing of EMILY's List, today. I'll be watching the 10th to see if Daniels will get a rematch in November, or if support from EMILY's List (and some other key endorsements) gives Stelson the edge.

We'll be updating the table below as we track how each of these women do tonight:

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Pennsylvanians who plan to vote for Trump in November are more enthusiastic about their candidate than those who plan to vote for Biden, according to a March Morning Consult/Bloomberg swing state survey. Seventy-five percent of planned Trump voters said their vote is primarily for Trump, while 25 percent said it's primarily against Biden. On the other hand, Biden supporters are more likely to say their vote is against the former president: 58 percent said their vote is more for Biden, and 42 percent said it is more against Trump.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

With Biden and Trump having sewn up their party's nominations, the Pennsylvania presidential primary is an afterthought today. But the Keystone State will definitely be at the forefront of the general election campaign: In 2016, Trump carried it by 0.7 percentage points, and in 2020, Biden won it by 1.2 points, making Pennsylvania one of the most competitive states in the country. And with 19 electoral votes, the state is the largest battleground-state prize in the Electoral College (if you don't include Florida, which has 30 electoral votes but may have a GOP lean now).

Early polling for the November election confirms the expectation that Pennsylvania will once again feature a hard-fought campaign. 538 hasn't released its general election polling averages yet — they're coming very soon — but Trump and Biden are running close to even in recent polls. The most recent one we have, a mid-April survey from Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research/Fox News, found them tied at 48 percent, with Trump edging ahead by 2 points when third-party candidates like Robert Kennedy Jr. were included as options.

Given Pennsylvania's importance, it's no surprise that both Biden and Trump are heavily focused on it. Biden just completed a campaign swing through the state last week, including a stop at his childhood home of Scranton. Just days earlier, Trump held a campaign rally in the Lehigh Valley ahead of the start of his hush-money trial in New York City. There'll certainly be more of that in Pennsylvania — and a gazillion attack ads on television and digital airwaves — before Election Day.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

We'll be keeping an eye on how candidates of color perform in tonight's House primaries. Racial diversity in Congress has steadily grown over the past two decades, with nonwhite representatives skewing heavily Democratic. In today's races, six candidates of color are running in Democratic primaries compared with four Republican hopefuls.

In the Pittsburgh-area 12th District, Democratic Rep. Summer Lee is seeking a second term after winning a fiercely contested primary by less than 1,000 votes in 2022, when she became the first Black woman to be elected to Congress from Pennsylvania. This year, she faces a primary challenge from Bhavini Patel, an Indian-American small business owner and Edgewood Borough Council member. Patel has aligned herself as a more moderate, pro-Israel foil to Lee, a member of The Squad — a group composed entirely of young progressives of color — who was heavily targeted by AIPAC in her first congressional bid.

Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans, another Black incumbent, is facing a primary challenger in Tracey Gordon, former Philadelphia register of wills. The majority Black, deep-blue 3rd District spans much of central and west Philadelphia, where tonight's winner is all but guaranteed to win the seat in November. The scandal-embroiled Gordon is an underdog candidate here, though she has some experience with that: She defeated a 40-year incumbent in the 2019 primary on the way to becoming the city's register of wills, but lost her reelection bid last May.

A six-way Democratic primary in the 10th District includes Harrisburg City Council member Shamaine Daniels and Blake Lynch, a former local radio executive. Daniels was the Democratic nominee in 2022, but was defeated by Republican Rep. Scott Perry, the former chair of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus. Whoever wins tonight will face Perry in November.

On the Republican side, attorney Maria Montero is one of three Republicans vying to face 7th District Democratic Rep. Susan Wild in what is anticipated to be a highly competitive general election. Entrepreneur Aaron Bashir, former Army chaplain Alfeia Goodwin and business executive James Hayes are each running unopposed in today's Republican primaries in their districts. All three are assured a spot on the ballot in November, but face long odds against Democratic incumbents in solidly blue districts.

—Irena Li, 538