Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has paved the way for some bitter Democratic primary fights in 2024. Among those most critical of Israel's actions in the conflict has been The Squad, an informal group of around nine progressive Democrats who often clash with their party's establishment. Of that cohort, Rep. Summer Lee of Pittsburgh is the first to face a contested primary in 2024 — but she won't be the last. At least four members, including Lee, have potentially significant primary opposition in part because of their vocal denouncements of Israel — although increasingly negative views of the Middle East nation's actions among the Democratic base means the conflict may not be as helpful to The Squad's challengers as some may have expected.

Should Lee survive, she would join Reps. Greg Casar of Texas and Delia Ramirez of Illinois among those who've won renomination (Casar and Ramirez faced no opposition in their March primaries). But some members with primaries later this summer may have problems, especially the two who are arguably most endangered: New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman and Missouri Rep. Cori Bush. For one thing, they've each been outraised by their leading challengers, and they both have potential scandals that could derail their reelection efforts. Last fall, Bowman pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol office building right before a vote, which resulted in him paying a fine and receiving a censure from the House. And Bush faces investigations by the Department of Justice, Federal Election Commission and House Ethics Committee into alleged misuse of funds to pay her security team, including payments to her husband as part of that team.

Beyond those two, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar may be the other Squad member who could have some trouble. Two years ago, she defeated former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels by just 2 percentage points in the Democratic primary; now Samuels is back for a rematch, although Omar has already raised more than twice as much as the $2.4 million she'd brought in by the time of the 2022 primary>. Otherwise, there are few signs that New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Massachusetts Rep. Ayanna Pressley will have difficulties. Ocasio-Cortez does have a challenger, but his largely self-funded effort pales in comparison to Ocasio-Cortez's campaign war chest, while Tlaib's little-known opponents only just filed for the race and haven't reported raising any money. Pressley, meanwhile, has no primary opposition ahead of Massachusetts's May 7 candidate filing deadline.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

One of the most competitive races today could be the Democratic contest for the open state attorney general, where Pennsylvania voters have a full slate of five candidates to pick from. It seems to be anyone's contest here, with each candidate bringing endorsements and support from different Democratic factions to the table.

The fundraising leader in this race is Northeast Philadelphia State Rep. Jared Solomon, a veteran who's emphasized anti-corruption and public safety on the campaign trail and in the state legislature. But his good-government bent hasn't seemed to win him friends in the party — he came in last in balloting for the Democratic Party endorsement (which no candidate ended up winning). The next biggest fundraising numbers came from Delaware County DA Jack Stollseimer and former Bucks County Solicitor Joe Khan, who previously served as a prosecutor in Philadelphia.

But there are two other candidates who may have other advantages in their pockets: The top vote-getter in the inconclusive party endorsement contest was Eugene DePasquale, who likely has a name recognition advantage. A Pittsburgh native, he represented York County as a state rep before winning statewide office as auditor general, and he's the only candidate from Western Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, the most progressive candidate in the race is likely Keir Bradford-Grey, a former chief public defender in both Montgomery County and Philadelphia. She's backed by the progressive Working Families Party and is looking to become the state's first Black AG, and the first AG in the country with a background primarily as a public defender. Her showing could tell us something about Pennsylvania Democrats' mood at a time when progressive prosecutors like Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner have come under increased scrutiny.

Whoever wins will be gearing up for a competitive general election, where they'll face the winner of today's GOP primary between York County DA David Sunday, who has his party's endorsement, and state Rep. Craig Williams, another veteran who represents parts of Chester and Delaware Counties and served as the chamber's impeachment manager against Krasner last year.

Further down the ballot, Democrats are also choosing their candidates today to challenge incumbent Republicans for two other statewide posts. In the Democratic primary for auditor general, the state's top fiscal watchdog, progressive Philadelphia state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta earned the party nod, and is likely favored over Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley. For state treasurer, Erie state Rep. Ryan Bizzarro is similarly favored over Pittsburgh-area small business owner Erin McClelland. These races are expected to be highly competitive in November too: They were each decided by just a few percentage points in 2020, and Democrats have set their sights on reversing the results this time around.

—Tia Yang, 538

Today, five Democratic women will be up for reelection in the House: Reps. Summer Lee, Susan Wild, Madeleine Dean, Mary Scanlon and Chrissy Houlahan. Of these incumbents, only Lee is facing a challenger. In 2022 Lee, now a member of the progressive group known as The Squad, narrowly defeated Steve Irwin in the Democratic primary despite heavy opposition spending by AIPAC. This year, Lee's challenger is Bhavini Patel, an Indian-American small business owner. As Irena mentioned, Patel has aligned herself as a more moderate, pro-Israel foil to Lee, who's been endorsed by a full slate of progressive groups including the Justice Dems, Working Families Party, Congressional Progressive Caucus, Sunrise Movement and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Beyond the Democratic women running as incumbents, a couple running in open primaries for competitive races in November are on the ballot today, too. In the 1st District, Army Apache helicopter pilot Ashley Ehasz is running unopposed to face Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in November. Ehasz lost to Fitzpatrick in 2022 by about 10 percentage points and is backed by the pro-choice organization, EMILY's List.

In the 10th district, two women, Shamaine Daniels and Janelle Stelson, are running in a crowded primary field to face Rep. Scott Perry in November. Daniels lost to Perry in 2022 by less than 10 points. But it is Stelson who may have front-runner status, and has the backing of EMILY's List, today. I'll be watching the 10th to see if Daniels will get a rematch in November, or if support from EMILY's List (and some other key endorsements) gives Stelson the edge.

We'll be updating the table below as we track how each of these women do tonight:

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Pennsylvanians who plan to vote for Trump in November are more enthusiastic about their candidate than those who plan to vote for Biden, according to a March Morning Consult/Bloomberg swing state survey. Seventy-five percent of planned Trump voters said their vote is primarily for Trump, while 25 percent said it's primarily against Biden. On the other hand, Biden supporters are more likely to say their vote is against the former president: 58 percent said their vote is more for Biden, and 42 percent said it is more against Trump.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538