538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.
Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.
Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
In the 1st District, GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is well ahead of his challenger from the right, anti-abortion activist Mark Houck. With 20 percent of the expected vote reporting, Fitzpatrick has 83 percent to Houck’s 17 percent. In fact, the Associated Press has already called this race and projected Fitzpatrick to win. ABC News, however, has yet to make a projection, so hang tight!
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538
In Pennsylvania, as in many states around the country, voters name the economy as the most important issue facing the state. In a mid-March Emerson College/The Hill survey, 36 percent of respondents said "the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" was the most important issue facing Pennsylvania. The next most chosen issue was crime (12 percent), followed by immigration and "threats to democracy" (11 percent each) and healthcare (9 percent).
Republicans were particularly concerned about the economy and immigration, with 47 and 21 percent selecting those two issues, respectively, and no other issue chosen by more than 9 percent of Republican voters. Democrats also selected the economy first, but with less gusto: 27 percent said the economy is the most important issue, followed by threats to democracy (16 percent), healthcare (15 percent) and crime (13 percent).
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Today's House primaries in Pennsylvania feature a dearth of Republican women: Of the 19 GOP candidates running today, just two are women. To get a sense of how lopsided this is, as we saw earlier, 12 out of the 25 candidates running for the U.S. House on the Democratic side are women.
Since about the mid-1990s, Democrats have been electing more women to Congress than Republicans, due in large part to more Democratic women running. That said, in both the 2020 and 2022 cycles, more Republican women ran in primaries than ever before. But what's more important to electing more women is where women are running, and if they are competing in places they can win in November.
Things are more interesting in the 7th District race Kaleigh just previewed, where the Democratic incumbent, Rep. Susan Wild, barely eked out a win in 2022 against a female Republican nominee, Lisa Scheller. Scheller isn't running for the GOP nomination this cycle, but another woman, attorney Maria Montero, is on the ballot today against state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie and Kevin Dellicker, a veteran and cybersecurity business owner.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
The Lehigh Valley, around Allentown in eastern Pennsylvania, is the backdrop to what is set to be one of the most competitive House races in the state (and the nation) this fall: the 7th District. Democratic Rep. Susan Wild will be squaring off against one of three Republicans vying to challenge the three-term congresswoman. In 2022, Wild held onto her seat by just 2 points in this competitive district, and Republicans are hoping they can finally flip it. Razor-thin races like this will help determine if the GOP can maintain control of the House.
The three Republicans battling it out in the GOP primary are Kevin Dellicker, a consulting company owner who was the runner-up in the 2022 primary, attorney Maria Montero, and state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, a local boy who has represented the region in the general assembly since 2012. Dellicker has outraised his opponents by about double, according to recent FEC filings, bringing in $447,000 to Mackenzie's $272,000 and Montero's $214,000. But Mackenzie has received substantial outside support to the tune of almost half a million dollars from Americans for Prosperity Action, a libertarian super PAC founded by the Koch brothers. There's no polling available for this race and not a ton of daylight between the three candidates when it comes to policy positions on hot-button issues like immigration, abortion and climate change, so it could be anyone's race. However, the heavy spending on Mackenzie's campaign and his local name recognition are distinct advantages.
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538
