Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

In one of tonight's competitive statewide races, Pittsburgh-area small business owner Erin McClelland is in the lead over Erie State Rep. Ryan Bizzarro on the back of the mail-in vote from Allegheny County. With around 40 percent of the expected vote in, McClelland is leading with around 57 percent to 43 percent of the vote, according to the state election returns site. Bizzarro may close in on this lead, since he's doing better in other parts of the state — but he's only barely in the lead there as well. (For example, he's up by less than 3 points in Philly and losing by 8 points in Bucks.)

Bizzarro has the state party's nomination and state campaign finance reports show that he outspent McClelland $348,000 to $23,000 in the cycle! This is an impressive showing. It may say something about regional power dynamics in the state, since Bizzarro is one of the few candidates in today's statewide contests who doesn't hail from either the Philly or Pittsburgh regions.

—Tia Yang, 538

ABC News reports that Lee is projected to defeat Patel in the 12th District Democratic primary. She currently leads 59 percent to 41 percent with 73 percent of the expected vote reporting. Lee is the first member of the progressive group of House members known as The Squad to face a primary challenge this cycle, but she's turned back her opposition. She will be easily favored to win in November in a seat that Biden would've carried by 20 points in 2020.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

As Geoffrey just mentioned, Summer Lee is leading her primary challenger, Bhavini Patel, in the 12th District. Political science research actually finds that incumbent women in Congress are more likely to face challengers than incumbent men. This is due to several factors, such as a history of women's underrepresentation which gives the impression that female incumbents are more vulnerable; this leads to higher quality challengers, too.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

The three Republicans running for the chance to defeat Rep. Susan Wild in Pennsylvania's competitive 7th District are all anti-abortion. With 26 percent of the expected vote in, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie has a lead with 42 percent of the vote. Mackenzie has told a local news station that the issue is best left to the states because there's no consensus at the federal level. In Pennsylvania, he's voted for a constitutional amendment saying there's no right to taxpayer-funded abortions.

—Monica Potts, 538