Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

As I mentioned earlier, only two Republican women are running in House races today, compared to 15 Democratic women. And only one woman, Maria Montero in the 7th, is running in a seat where the party could be competitive in November. Pennsylvania has slightly below average female representation in their state legislature (which is just 32 percent female), and they've never had a female U.S. senator or governor (of any party). A state's history of electing women to political office is actually a pretty good predictor of electing more women in the future. Research indicates that once a state has elected a woman to a particular office, future female candidates are more likely to be successful in seeking that same office. Experts suggest this is due to increased familiarity and acceptance of women in political leadership and the establishment of support networks and resources for female candidates.

ABC hasn't made a projection in Montero's race yet, but The Associated Press has already projected it for state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Per the latest results, with 50 percent of the expected vote reporting, Montero trails, with 28 percent of the vote to Mackenzie's 43 percent and business owner Kevin Dellicker's 30 percent.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

ABC News reports that Janelle Stelson is projected to win the Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania's 10th District. With 63 percent of the expected vote reporting, she leads with 44 percent, well ahead of Mike O'Brien's 23 percent in second place. Stelson will advance to the general election to face Rep. Scott Perry, who has arguably the most conservative voting record of any Republican who represents a seat that Trump would've won by less than 5 points in 2020 or that Biden would've carried. However, the GOP starts out as favorites for the general election, as ratings outlets view it as a Lean Republican seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

ABC News reports that progressive Philadelphia State Rep. Malcom Kenyatta is projected to win in the Democratic Auditor General primary. He's currently ahead of Mark Pinsley by around 23 percentage points, a significant improvement from the last time he appeared on a statewide primary ballot, winning just 11 percent of the vote in the 2022 Senate primary. He will face Republican incumbent Timothy DeFoor in November, who ran unopposed today.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

ABC News reports that Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is projected to win the GOP primary in the 1st District, conquering his right-flank challenge from anti-abortion activist Mark Houck. He's faced a primary challenger in every election since he was first elected in 2016, but has always triumphed. Fitzpatrick will once again go up against Democrat Ashley Ehasz this fall, whom he beat by 10 points in 2022.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538