Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?

It’s unclear whether Louisiana will end up with a new congressional map ahead of the 2024 election. Like Alabama, Louisiana has faced litigation over claims that its district lines impermissibly diluted the influence of Black voters. In 2022, the GOP-controlled legislature implemented a map that maintained the state’s status quo of one majority-Black seat among six total districts. But Democrats and voting rights advocates argued that Louisiana, which has a population that’s about one-third Black, should have a second district in which Black voters could elect the member of their choice. A lower federal court agreed, ruling in June 2022 that the map violated the Voting Rights Act and ordering the state to draw a new map. The legislature appealed, but the Supreme Court put the Louisiana case on hold while deliberating over the similar redistricting case in Alabama. This allowed Louisiana’s map to be used in the 2022 election.

But a redraw of Louisiana’s map became a renewed possibility after the Supreme Court ruled in June 2023 that Alabama’s congressional lines violated the VRA. Following that decision, SCOTUS lifted its hold on the Louisiana case. Nonetheless, the case remains up in the air following a late September decision by a federal appeals court that canceled the lower court’s next hearing in early October, in which it was expected to approve a remedial map for Louisiana after the state failed to propose an alternate map in 2022. The plaintiffs have asked the Supreme Court for emergency relief to block the appeals court’s decision, arguing the appeals court ruled improperly and in a way that could delay the potential implementation of a new map beyond 2024. In the meantime, the appeals court’s decision gives Louisiana more time to defend the current map and consider new lines.

The New Mexico Republican Party sued over the state’s congressional map last year, arguing that the Democratic-controlled legislature drew a gerrymander that violates the state constitution. Under the old lines, the state had two fairly safe Democratic seats and one relatively GOP-leaning seat. But in 2021, Democrats implemented a new map that made all three seats more competitive, but also gave each seat a Democratic lean. In the case of the GOP-leaning 2nd District, the new lines shifted the seat so that it took in Democratic-leaning and heavily Hispanic parts of Albuquerque. Not coincidentally, Democrats went on to flip the seat by a narrow margin in 2022, giving them control of all three of New Mexico’s congressional districts.

The map’s future will hinge on a three-part test the New Mexico Supreme Court laid out for this case, which asks whether the main reason for drawing a district was to entrench a party’s power by diluting the votes of the opposition party, whether the map substantially diluted the opposition party’s votes and if the defendants have a legitimate, nonpartisan reason for the lines. A lower state court held hearings in late September, so it may be some time before the case is decided.

New York redistricting is … complicated. If the state’s map is redrawn, it could be the most consequential redistricting action of the 2024 cycle and could endanger the reelections of several Republican representatives.

New York’s current congressional map was drawn by a special master after a state court struck down the Democratic legislature’s preferred map, which was severely biased toward Democrats. Democrats filed a lawsuit against the replacement map, arguing that it should only be temporary and that the state’s advisory redistricting commission should be entitled to take another crack at drawing the map. What they don’t mention is that, if the commission fails to pass a map, the Democratic legislature would once again step in and draw one instead — likely another gerrymander.

In July, a state court ruled that the commission should indeed redraw the map, but Republicans quickly appealed the decision. The New York Court of Appeals will hear the case in November. Although that’s the same court that threw out the Democratic gerrymander just last year, the author and swing vote in that 4-3 decision is no longer on the bench.

North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature looks ready to draw lines for a new congressional map this month in the latest twist in the state’s long history of sharp-elbowed partisan battles over redistricting. Prior to the 2022 election, the GOP-led legislature passed two different maps that would’ve been highly favorable to Republicans, but in each case state courts threw out the maps as partisan gerrymanders. The state ended up with a court-drawn map that would only be in effect for the 2022 election, which resulted in a 7-7 split in the state’s congressional delegation.

But in the 2022 election, Republicans won a 5-2 majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court, which undid the Democrats’ narrow advantage and significantly altered the state’s legal environment for redistricting. In April, the state Supreme Court overturned a 2022 ruling made by the previous panel that said partisan gerrymandering violated the state constitution, opening the door for the legislature to draw an advantageous map for Republicans. Under state law, the governor has no veto power over redistricting measures, so Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper cannot interfere in the GOP-led legislature’s line drawing. If the legislature’s initial mapmaking effort in 2021 is any indication, we can expect Republicans to shoot for a map on which the party stands a good chance of winning at least 10 seats.