Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
July 26, 2024 at 4:35 PM
Quiz: How well do you know the top dogs of politics?
Take a break from the horse race and match these dogs to their political owners.
July 26, 2024 at 4:35 PM
July 26, 2024 at 2:35 PM
What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table
Breaking down eight possible candidates for Kamala Harris's VP pick.
July 26, 2024 at 2:35 PM
July 23, 2024 at 8:52 PM
Is Kamala Harris the presumptive Democratic nominee? Not quite.
Now that Joe Biden has dropped out, what happens next for Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party?
July 23, 2024 at 8:52 PM
July 22, 2024 at 9:52 PM
What do the polls say about a Harris vs. Trump matchup?
While Harris consistently polled worse than Biden did against Trump before the debate, she’s since fared the same or better in close to half of the post-debate polls.
July 22, 2024 at 9:52 PM
July 19, 2024 at 12:49 PM
This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don't trust either party to fix it.
The 2024 presidential election in Duval County, Florida, could be decided by inflation and housing costs.
July 19, 2024 at 12:49 PM
July 18, 2024 at 7:52 PM
What you might've missed at the RNC
Who spoke at the Republican National Convention (RNC) and what it means for the 2024 election.
July 18, 2024 at 7:52 PM
July 18, 2024 at 2:40 AM
What is a convention delegate?
FiveThirtyEight's Galen Druke sits down with ABC News reporter Will Ganns to breakdown the complicated question around party conventions: why are delegates a thing?
July 18, 2024 at 2:40 AM
July 17, 2024 at 6:39 PM
Will the RNC give Trump a polling bounce?
538 looks at the history of convention bounces in the polls, and why a Trump bounce after the 2024 RNC may be complicated by the recent shooting and other events.
July 17, 2024 at 6:39 PM
July 17, 2024 at 2:57 PM
Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.
Nikki Haley has endorsed Donald Trump, but which Haley primary voters will break with the Republican Party in the 2024 general election?
July 17, 2024 at 2:57 PM
July 15, 2024 at 7:19 PM
What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028
Why Trump's vice presidential pick might not matter as much as you think.
July 15, 2024 at 7:19 PM
July 15, 2024 at 7:17 PM
Welcome to Milwaukee
The 2024 Republican National Convention is underway. Here’s why the Republican Party chose Milwaukee as the host city.
July 15, 2024 at 7:17 PM
July 12, 2024 at 2:34 PM
Americans were worried about Biden's age long before the debate
Polls say Americans think Joe Biden is too old to be president.
July 12, 2024 at 2:34 PM
July 11, 2024 at 8:55 PM
4 reasons to beware of post-debate polling takes
This soon after the debate, with relatively little robust polling, there are early indications that President Joe Biden has lost ground, but it's hard to say much more.
July 11, 2024 at 8:55 PM
July 10, 2024 at 7:13 PM
What the Democrats doubting Biden have in common
At first, there may not seem to be a pattern in who is calling on Biden to step down and who's supporting him. But a closer look reveals there are some similarities.
July 10, 2024 at 7:13 PM
July 10, 2024 at 4:33 PM
Why 538's forecast hasn't moved much post-debate
Why 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model is still a toss-up after the debate.
July 10, 2024 at 4:33 PM
July 9, 2024 at 10:03 PM
Can Biden recover from the debate?
Avoiding public appearances and minimizing camera time isn’t a scandal, but it doesn’t bode well.
July 9, 2024 at 10:03 PM
July 9, 2024 at 9:18 PM
What do Democrats really think about Biden continuing to run?
Voters are more concerned about his age than a few years ago, polls show.
July 9, 2024 at 9:18 PM
July 9, 2024 at 9:05 PM
Why Biden will probably stay in the race despite Democratic dissent
538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to shed light on similarities between Biden today and Trump in 2016.
July 9, 2024 at 9:05 PM
July 8, 2024 at 2:29 PM
Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term
The Supreme Court tends to release unpopular opinions later in its term.
July 8, 2024 at 2:29 PM
July 3, 2024 at 4:06 PM
Voters are mad as hell in the UK and France
How the United Kingdom and France elections work and who will win.
July 3, 2024 at 4:06 PM
July 3, 2024 at 3:14 AM
538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence
Despite Justice Barrett siding with the majority on the presidential immunity case, she dissented on a section of the ruling. 538 has more.
July 3, 2024 at 3:14 AM
July 3, 2024 at 12:15 AM
SCOTUS ruled on presidential immunity. What does that mean for Trump?
It's very unlikely Trump will stand trial before the 2024 presidential election: 538
July 3, 2024 at 12:15 AM
July 2, 2024 at 7:07 PM
What the polls say after the first presidential debate
Trump looks to have gained at least some ground, but how much the polls end up moving remains to be seen.
July 2, 2024 at 7:07 PM
1 month ago
Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
Poll results from after the first 2024 presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate
New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?
Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Who won the 1st presidential debate?
538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
A new 538/Ipsos poll conducted before the debate shows where Biden and Trump stand.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS
From the earliest moments of the night, President Joe Biden's biggest political weakness -- his age and perceived frailty -- became a clear liability on the debate stage.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think
Will the June 27 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden matter in the polls?
1 month ago
1 month ago
All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday
Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Upcoming debate is different than other debates
The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?
The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
1 month ago
1 month ago
What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
1 month ago
1 month ago
15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina
Tuesday's elections include notable U.S. House primary races in New York, Colorado and Utah.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world?
Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Do global election trends provide insight into the US election?
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. came up short of qualifying for the first general election debate.
1 month ago
1 month ago
It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.
Why Americans feel bad about the economy even though economic data is strong.
1 month ago
1 month ago
A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about
538's polling column examines Americans' opinion on access to the abortion medication mifepristone, the economy and threats to democracy, Pride month and polling itself.
1 month ago
1 month ago
7 primaries to watch in Virginia and Oklahoma
Tuesday's elections include notable U.S. House primary races in Virginia and Oklahoma.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Biden, Trump virtually tied in 538 poll
Former President Donald Trump has a slight edge over President Joe Biden.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election
It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
1 month ago
2 months ago
Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast
Announcing 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Abortion-rights ballot measures are leading in the polls
What the polls say about 2024 abortion-rights ballot measures in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and South Dakota.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early
National polling conducted immediately after Trump's guilty verdict reflects a slight swing toward Biden.
2 months ago
2 months ago
How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Republicans are ramping up election fraud claims ahead of November
Republicans continue to embrace election denialism by pushing efforts to ban noncitizens from voting (which is already illegal).
2 months ago