Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
December 19, 2024 at 6:51 PM
Why most of Trump's Cabinet picks will get confirmed by the Senate
Why most of Donald Trump's Cabinet picks will probably be confirmed.
December 19, 2024 at 6:51 PM
December 18, 2024 at 7:27 PM
Why abortion didn't lead Democrats to victory in the 2024 election
Why abortion didn't lead to a Democratic win in the 2024 election.
December 18, 2024 at 7:27 PM
December 17, 2024 at 9:16 PM
Our 2024 Superlatives | 538 politics podcast
On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew makes a yearbook and assigns superlatives.
December 17, 2024 at 9:16 PM
December 16, 2024 at 8:11 PM
Americans are unhappy with the state of health care and insurance
538's polling column about the state of health care, voters' trust in the 2024 election results and President Joe Biden's approval rating.
December 16, 2024 at 8:11 PM
December 12, 2024 at 11:46 PM
Where have all the Democrats gone?
Which counties swung right in the 2024 election?
December 12, 2024 at 11:46 PM
December 12, 2024 at 3:49 PM
After the 2024 election, Democrats are at a steep disadvantage in the Senate
Why it's hard for Democrats to win elections for U.S. Senate control.
December 12, 2024 at 3:49 PM
December 10, 2024 at 9:58 PM
America's swing to the right in 2024 was wide, if not always deep
Trump gained ground in every state and most counties in the 2024 election compared to 2020.
December 10, 2024 at 9:58 PM
December 9, 2024 at 8:29 PM
Trump's Cabinet woes are back, earlier than ever
President-elect Donald Trump could break the record for most failed Cabinet nominations to start a term.
December 9, 2024 at 8:29 PM
December 5, 2024 at 9:07 PM
Why Democrats now support the Hunter Biden pardon
538's polling column about President Joe Biden's pardon of his son, Sarah McBride's favorability and the future of America.
December 5, 2024 at 9:07 PM
December 4, 2024 at 4:25 PM
Has the number of women in Congress hit a ceiling?
Neither party made significant gains in 2024, and Republican women still lag behind.
December 4, 2024 at 4:25 PM
December 2, 2024 at 10:28 PM
Why Republicans start out as favorites in the 2026 Senate elections
Democrats need to flip four Senate seats in 2026 to reclaim a majority, but have few clear targets.
December 2, 2024 at 10:28 PM
December 2, 2024 at 6:43 PM
Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part.
As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ABC News is reporting that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208.
December 2, 2024 at 6:43 PM
November 26, 2024 at 8:55 PM
The 2024 presidential election was close, not a landslide
Donald Trump's close win over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election hasn't stopped him from claiming a mandate.
November 26, 2024 at 8:55 PM
1 month ago
The congressional bathroom ban is the latest transgender policy battle
538's polling column about Republicans' transgender bathroom bans, Trump's transition, trust in polls and Thanksgiving plans.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How pollsters' methodology may have changed
538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik weigh in on whether pollsters changed their strategy in the last election cycle.
1 month ago
1 month ago
What the 2024 election tells us about past elections
538’s Galen Druke and the panel discuss what conclusions can be drawn from the 2024 presidential election and if it can tell us more about the 2016 and 2020 elections.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Gaetz is out. Will Trump's other Cabinet picks be confirmed?
Matt Gaetz has withdrawn, but will other Trump Cabinet nominees have trouble with confirmation?
1 month ago
1 month ago
What the gender gap tells us about Trump's win
Donald Trump's appeals to young men and men of color in the 2024 election campaign may have paid off.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world
Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024 elections.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Texas may finally pass school choice in 2025
A school-voucher-like program could pass in Texas after the 2024 election.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why voters chose Trump
Despite Donald Trump's unpopularity, he won on immigration, the economy and leadership.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How the issue of immigration may evolve in a second Trump term
538's Galen Druke and Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discuss how much is known about the mass deportation and immigration policy of president-elect Donald Trump.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Are Latino voters shifting or in a realignment?
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke take a deep dive into whether the 2024 voting trends of Latino voters are a shift or a full-blown realignment.
1 month ago
1 month ago
What 2024 election polls showed about the Latino electorate
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How Democrats won Senate seats in states that Trump carried
The 2024 election had at least three split-ticket results, though presidential and Senate votes still closely aligned.
1 month ago
1 month ago
2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump
How accurate were polls of the 2024 election?
1 month ago
2 months ago
Republicans won the Senate
How big will the Republicans' U.S. Senate majority be?
2 months ago
2 months ago
What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?
The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
2 months ago
2 months ago
The biggest takeaway from the latest Iowa poll | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke discusses the latest Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa on the eve of Election Day.
2 months ago
2 months ago
49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election
Ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election related to abortion, voting, drugs, workers' rights, and more.
2 months ago
2 months ago
When will we know 2024 election results?
When will we know who won the 2024 presidential election? 538 shows you when to expect results in all 50 states.
2 months ago
2 months ago
The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024
Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are hosting competitive races for state legislative chambers in 2024.
2 months ago
2 months ago
The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania
538's final deep dive into swing states in the 2024 election focusing on Pennslyvania voters.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout
How accurate will the polls of the 2024 presidential election be?
2 months ago
2 months ago
How to look at early voting data responsibly
With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Does only 3% of America care about democracy?
The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.
2 months ago
2 months ago
How will young men vote in the 2024 election?
538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up
538's 2024 presidential election forecast shows a very close, toss-up race, with Trump taking a small lead.
2 months ago
2 months ago
2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How polling in 2024 compares with other recent election cycles.
2 months ago
2 months ago
In 2024, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states
There are 10 states with abortion rights initiatives in the 2024 election.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Which states have the most — and least — accurate polls?
Polling is more accurate in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Can Democrats win Arizona again in 2024?
538's sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states of the 2024 election focuses on Arizona.
2 months ago
2 months ago
This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don't trust either party to fix it.
The 2024 presidential election in Duval County, Florida, could be decided by inflation and housing costs.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up
As a rural dog owner, I know Kristi Noem's story is far from normal.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate
What 538's 2024 Senate election forecast says.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?
Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles
Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.
2 months ago
2 months ago
The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy
How education is impacting the 2024 election and what school choice ballot measures are on the ballot.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?
The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
2 months ago