538
Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
April 19, 2024 at 4:32 PM

How pollsters are (and aren't) fighting fraud

How do political pollsters protect against spam and bad-faith actors in their polls?
April 19, 2024 at 4:32 PM
How pollsters are (and aren't) fighting fraud
April 18, 2024 at 8:00 PM

Americans really love their governors

America’s governors are popular, but just how popular?
April 18, 2024 at 8:00 PM
Americans really love their governors
April 18, 2024 at 2:12 PM

Does it matter that Democrats are raising more money than Republicans?

538 breaks down the latest presidential, Senate and House fundraising reports.
April 18, 2024 at 2:12 PM
Does it matter that Democrats are raising more money than Republicans?
April 17, 2024 at 3:32 PM

The far right claims there's a 'uniparty' in Washington. Reality suggests otherwise.

The gap between Democrats and Republicans makes claims of a "uniparty" hard to swallow.
April 17, 2024 at 3:32 PM
The far right claims there's a 'uniparty' in Washington. Reality suggests otherwise.
April 12, 2024 at 2:36 PM

It's really hard to change Electoral College rules

Nebraska is only the latest to weigh changing its Electoral College system.
April 12, 2024 at 2:36 PM
It's really hard to change Electoral College rules
April 11, 2024 at 4:23 PM

The less you vote, the more you back Trump

Joe Biden is polling better than Donald Trump among voters who turn out more often.
April 11, 2024 at 4:23 PM
The less you vote, the more you back Trump
April 9, 2024 at 5:21 PM

Biden has forgiven billions in student loans. Voters may not have noticed.

Will President Joe Biden get credit for canceling billions in student loans?
April 9, 2024 at 5:21 PM
Biden has forgiven billions in student loans. Voters may not have noticed.
April 8, 2024 at 4:21 PM

Do Americans agree with Trump on abortion?

As Trump announces his plan on abortion, can you guess what Americans think about abortion and reproductive rights?
April 8, 2024 at 4:21 PM
Do Americans agree with Trump on abortion?
April 5, 2024 at 8:27 PM

Why it always feels like the government is about to shut down

Congress has increasingly turned to repeated stopgap bills to punt funding deadlines.
April 5, 2024 at 8:27 PM
Why it always feels like the government is about to shut down
April 4, 2024 at 2:40 PM

See how demographic swings could impact the 2024 election

Explore possible 2024 election outcomes with 538's Swing-O-Matic interactive.
April 4, 2024 at 2:40 PM
See how demographic swings could impact the 2024 election
April 3, 2024 at 10:16 AM

When will Trump make his VP pick?

History indicates that a running mate announcement will happen just before the national convention.
April 3, 2024 at 10:16 AM
When will Trump make his VP pick?
April 1, 2024 at 2:15 PM

Have Americans ever hated two candidates as much as Biden and Trump?

It's unusual for both presidential candidates to be this disliked. But history shows that favorability doesn't always predict the winner in November.
April 1, 2024 at 2:15 PM
Have Americans ever hated two candidates as much as Biden and Trump?
March 28, 2024 at 8:52 PM

Could Larry Hogan turn a blue Senate seat red in Maryland?

Is Larry Hogan popular enough to flip a Senate seat in solidly blue Maryland for the GOP?
March 28, 2024 at 8:52 PM
Could Larry Hogan turn a blue Senate seat red in Maryland?
1 month ago

House members seem to really hate their jobs

U.S. representatives are increasingly cutting their congressional careers off early.
1 month ago
House members seem to really hate their jobs
1 month ago

Who said it: Biden, Trump or someone from 'The Bachelor'?

We quizzed the 538 staff with 12 quotes about finding love — or votes.
1 month ago
Who said it: Biden, Trump or someone from 'The Bachelor'?
1 month ago

How IVF and abortion access could shape the 2024 election

538's polling column examines Americans' opinions on IVF and abortion access, Trump and Biden's job approval ratings and college athlete unionization.
1 month ago
How IVF and abortion access could shape the 2024 election
1 month ago

8 primaries to watch in Ohio, Illinois and California

538's preview of the Ohio, Illinois and California primaries on March 19, 2024.
1 month ago
8 primaries to watch in Ohio, Illinois and California
1 month ago

No one is coming to save us from Trump versus Biden 2.0

No, Nikki Haley is not going to run as a third-party candidate against Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
1 month ago
No one is coming to save us from a 2020 rematch
1 month ago

Trump is leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up

Early polls show President Joe Biden losing to former President Donald Trump. Does that matter?
1 month ago
Trump is leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up
1 month ago

LGBTQ+ voters look a lot like swing voters

An exclusive new poll of LGBTQ+ voters finds wide support for Joe Biden, but more moderate political views.
1 month ago
LGBTQ+ voters look a lot like swing voters
1 month ago

Biden’s State of the Union address won’t make or break his campaign

Why Joe Biden's State of the Union address might not matter.
1 month ago
1 month ago

Haley's campaign exposed cracks in Trump's GOP

Nikki Haley's presidential campaign revealed divisions in the Republican Party.
1 month ago
Haley's campaign exposed cracks in Trump's GOP
1 month ago

Can Haley stop a Trump sweep on Super Tuesday?

Donald Trump has a strong polling lead on Super Tuesday, but Nikki Haley might have a shot in a few states.
1 month ago
Can Haley stop a Trump sweep on Super Tuesday?
2 months ago

12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in California and Alabama

538's preview of the Senate and House primaries in California and Alabama on March 5.
2 months ago
12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in California and Alabama
2 months ago

12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in Texas and North Carolina

538's preview of the Senate, House and gubernatorial primaries in North Carolina and Texas on March 5.
2 months ago
12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in Texas and North Carolina
2 months ago

Could Arab American and Muslim voters cost Biden the 2024 election?

They're a small voting bloc, but Democrats can't take their support for granted. Plus, takeaways from the uncommitted campaign in Michigan.
2 months ago
Could Arab American and Muslim voters cost Biden the 2024 election?
2 months ago

What 538's new primary polling averages say about 3 key Senate races

538 has new primary polling averages for Senate races in California, Ohio and West Virginia.
2 months ago
What 538's new primary polling averages say about 3 key Senate races
2 months ago

Two years into the war, American support for Ukraine is down

New polls on Ukraine, Black History Month, the Supreme Court, political philosophy and TikTok.
2 months ago
Two years into the war, American support for Ukraine is down
2 months ago

Swing state Republican parties are in chaos. That could matter in November.

Republican Party rifts in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan could have an impact on the 2024 election.
2 months ago
Swing state Republican parties are in chaos. That could matter in November.
2 months ago

What the New York 3rd special election means for November

Democrats overperforming in special contests doesn't say much about the general election. Plus, why it's not a big deal that the polls were slightly off.
2 months ago
What the New York 3rd special election means for November
2 months ago

Who will replace George Santos?

Democrat Tom Suozzi leads Republican Mazi Pilip in polls.
2 months ago
Who will replace George Santos?
2 months ago

Americans believe in climate change, but do they believe in love?

538 rounds up recent polling on extreme weather, U.S. involvement in the Israel-Hamas war, the bipartisan border deal, the Super Bowl and Valentine’s Day.
2 months ago
Americans believe in climate change, but do they believe in love?
2 months ago

In defense of internal polling

What are internal polls, and can we trust them?
2 months ago
In defense of internal polling
2 months ago

Why Nevada might not matter in the GOP presidential race

Donald Trump and Nikki Haley won't square off in Nevada's primary or caucuses.
2 months ago
Why Nevada might not matter in the GOP presidential race
3 months ago

You can probably guess why Trump is dead set against the border bill

Biden is looking to boost his dismal approval ratings on immigration.
3 months ago
You can probably guess why Trump is dead set against the border bill
3 months ago

Which Senate candidates are winning the money race?

The 538 crew breaks down the latest congressional and presidential fundraising numbers from the last quarter of 2023.
3 months ago
Which Senate candidates are winning the money race?
3 months ago

Americans think democracy is in peril in the 2024 election

Democrats and Republicans fear very different threats to democracy.
3 months ago
Americans think democracy is in peril in the 2024 election
3 months ago

This could be the shortest presidential primary ever

Trump may wrap up the Republican nomination after only a few states have voted.
3 months ago
This could be the shortest presidential primary ever
3 months ago

How often every member of Congress voted with Biden in 2023

How often did Senate and House Democrats and Republicans vote with President Joe Biden in 2023?
3 months ago
How often every member of Congress voted with Biden in 2023
3 months ago

538 rates the 'best' pollsters in America

538's Elliot Morris discuss how to rate the "pollsters" in America using their "historical track record and methodological transparency of each polling firm’s polls".
3 months ago
538 rates the 'best' pollsters in America
3 months ago

DeSantis couldn't shake Trump's hold on the GOP

Donald Trump's hold on the GOP looms over Ron DeSantis's failed presidential campaign.
3 months ago
DeSantis couldn't shake Trump's hold on the GOP
3 months ago

Immigration, the economy and foreign policy could decide the New Hampshire primary

Republicans in the Granite State are generally more moderate than those in Iowa, but their top issues are largely aligned with those of the national party.
3 months ago
Immigration, the economy and foreign policy could decide the New Hampshire primary
3 months ago

Where do Republican voters stand ahead of the New Hampshire primary?

How Republican voters feel about the presidential candidates before the New Hampshire primary.
3 months ago
Where do Republican voters stand ahead of the New Hampshire primary?
3 months ago

Who will have the momentum out of Iowa?

How much of a polling bump will Donald Trump, Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis get out of Iowa?
3 months ago
Who will have the momentum out of Iowa?
3 months ago

Checking in on the early voting states

Galen Druke speaks to ABC News campaign reporters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
3 months ago
Checking in on the early voting states
3 months ago

Can a busy campaign schedule save Trump's GOP primary opponents?

538 tracked which GOP primary candidates are holding the most campaign events in Iowa and New Hampshire.
3 months ago
Can a busy campaign schedule save Trump's GOP primary opponents?
3 months ago

DeSantis and Haley need to win early, or it's over

An explanation of 538's new Republican primary delegate benchmarks.
3 months ago
What's each Republican candidate's path to the nomination?
3 months ago

College-educated voters aren't saving Nikki Haley — yet

Who are the voters driving Nikki Haley's rise in the polls?
3 months ago
What's driving Haley's rise in the GOP primary polls?
3 months ago

Christie's withdrawal is good news for Haley

Chris Christie's withdrawal from the GOP primary came at just the right time for Nikki Haley.
3 months ago
Christie's withdrawal is good news for Haley
3 months ago

January debates offer last shot for Trump's opponents to make their case

Three January debates offer former President Donald Trump’s primary opponents a last chance to make their case.
3 months ago
January debates offer last shot for Trump's opponents to make their case