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1 hour ago

Will the RNC give Trump a polling bounce?

538 looks at the history of convention bounces in the polls, and why a Trump bounce after the 2024 RNC may be complicated by the recent shooting and other events.
1 hour ago
"Trump" campaign signs inside the Fiserv Forum ahead of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 15, 2024.
July 17, 2024 at 2:57 PM

Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.

Nikki Haley has endorsed Donald Trump, but which Haley primary voters will break with the Republican Party in the 2024 general election?
July 17, 2024 at 2:57 PM
Will Nikki Haley's supporters back Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the 2024 general election?
July 15, 2024 at 7:19 PM

What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028

Why Trump's vice presidential pick might not matter as much as you think.
July 15, 2024 at 7:19 PM
The three front-runners to be Trump’s VP are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sens. Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance.
July 15, 2024 at 7:17 PM

Welcome to Milwaukee

The 2024 Republican National Convention is underway. Here’s why the Republican Party chose Milwaukee as the host city.
July 15, 2024 at 7:17 PM
The 2024 Republican National Convention is underway. Here’s why the Republican Party chose Milwaukee as the host city.
July 12, 2024 at 2:34 PM

Americans were worried about Biden's age long before the debate

Polls say Americans think Joe Biden is too old to be president.
July 12, 2024 at 2:34 PM
President Joe Biden speaks to supporters during a campaign rally at Sherman Middle School, July 5, 2024, in Madison, Wisconsin.
July 11, 2024 at 8:55 PM

4 reasons to beware of post-debate polling takes

This soon after the debate, with relatively little robust polling, there are early indications that President Joe Biden has lost ground, but it's hard to say much more.
July 11, 2024 at 8:55 PM
It takes time to gauge how campaign developments may have affected the polls.
July 10, 2024 at 7:13 PM

What the Democrats doubting Biden have in common

At first, there may not seem to be a pattern in who is calling on Biden to step down and who's supporting him. But a closer look reveals there are some similarities.
July 10, 2024 at 7:13 PM
President Joe Biden listens as Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump speaks during their debate in Atlanta, GA, June 27, 2024.
July 10, 2024 at 4:33 PM

Why 538's forecast hasn't moved much post-debate

Why 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model is still a toss-up after the debate.
July 10, 2024 at 4:33 PM
"An election update for July 9, 2024.
July 9, 2024 at 10:03 PM

Can Biden recover from the debate?

Avoiding public appearances and minimizing camera time isn’t a scandal, but it doesn’t bode well.
July 9, 2024 at 10:03 PM
Can Biden recover from the debate?
July 9, 2024 at 9:18 PM

What do Democrats really think about Biden continuing to run?

Voters are more concerned about his age than a few years ago, polls show.
July 9, 2024 at 9:18 PM
What do Democrats really think about Biden continuing to run?
July 9, 2024 at 9:05 PM

Why Biden will probably stay in the race despite Democratic dissent

538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to shed light on similarities between Biden today and Trump in 2016.
July 9, 2024 at 9:05 PM
Why Trump will probably stay in the race despite Republican dissent
July 8, 2024 at 2:29 PM

Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term

The Supreme Court tends to release unpopular opinions later in its term.
July 8, 2024 at 2:29 PM
The Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions later in its term.
July 3, 2024 at 4:06 PM

Voters are mad as hell in the UK and France

How the United Kingdom and France elections work and who will win.
July 3, 2024 at 4:06 PM
The U.S., U.K. and France are all holding major elections in 2024.
July 3, 2024 at 3:14 AM

538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence

Despite Justice Barrett siding with the majority on the presidential immunity case, she dissented on a section of the ruling. 538 has more.
July 3, 2024 at 3:14 AM
538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence
July 3, 2024 at 12:15 AM

SCOTUS ruled on presidential immunity. What does that mean for Trump?

It's very unlikely Trump will stand trial before the 2024 presidential election: 538
July 3, 2024 at 12:15 AM
Win McNamee/Getty Images
July 2, 2024 at 7:07 PM

What the polls say after the first presidential debate

Trump looks to have gained at least some ground, but how much the polls end up moving remains to be seen.
July 2, 2024 at 7:07 PM
Trump gained slightly in national polls in the days after the first presidential debate.
June 28, 2024 at 7:52 PM

Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

Poll results from after the first 2024 presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
June 28, 2024 at 7:52 PM
Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election on June 27.
June 28, 2024 at 7:52 PM

Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate

New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.
June 28, 2024 at 7:52 PM
VIDEO: Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate
June 28, 2024 at 6:06 PM

Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?

Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
June 28, 2024 at 6:06 PM
VIDEO: Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?
June 28, 2024 at 5:31 PM

Who won the 1st presidential debate?

538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
June 28, 2024 at 5:31 PM
VIDEO: Who won the 1st presidential debate?
June 28, 2024 at 5:02 AM

Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

A new 538/Ipsos poll conducted before the debate shows where Biden and Trump stand.
June 28, 2024 at 5:02 AM
Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election on June 27.
June 28, 2024 at 4:54 AM

Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS

From the earliest moments of the night, President Joe Biden's biggest political weakness -- his age and perceived frailty -- became a clear liability on the debate stage.
June 28, 2024 at 4:54 AM
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden during a presidential debate hosted by CNN, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta.
June 26, 2024 at 9:36 PM

Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president

Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
June 26, 2024 at 9:36 PM
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
June 26, 2024 at 6:58 PM

Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think

Will the June 27 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden matter in the polls?
June 26, 2024 at 6:58 PM
Joe Biden, 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, right, and President Donald Trump speak during the U.S. presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, Oct. 22, 2020.
June 26, 2024 at 12:57 AM

All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday

Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
June 26, 2024 at 12:57 AM
Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
June 26, 2024 at 12:38 AM

Upcoming debate is different than other debates

The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
June 26, 2024 at 12:38 AM
The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
June 25, 2024 at 9:17 PM

How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?

The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
June 25, 2024 at 9:17 PM
The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
June 25, 2024 at 9:12 PM

What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate

President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
June 25, 2024 at 9:12 PM
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
June 25, 2024 at 2:56 PM

15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina

Tuesday's elections include notable U.S. House primary races in New York, Colorado and Utah.
June 25, 2024 at 2:56 PM
Rep. Jamaal Bowman speaks at a re-election rally at Maceachron Park on June 21, 2024 in Hastings-on-Hudson, New York.
1 month ago

Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world? 

Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
1 month ago
Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
1 month ago

Do global election trends provide insight into the US election? 

Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 
1 month ago
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 
1 month ago

Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?

Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
1 month ago
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
1 month ago

Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. came up short of qualifying for the first general election debate.
1 month ago
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to the media at a Cesar Chavez Day event at Union Station on March 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.
1 month ago

It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.

Why Americans feel bad about the economy even though economic data is strong.
1 month ago
High costs may partially explain Americans' dissatisfaction with the economy.
1 month ago

A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about

538's polling column examines Americans' opinion on access to the abortion medication mifepristone, the economy and threats to democracy, Pride month and polling itself.
1 month ago
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
1 month ago

7 primaries to watch in Virginia and Oklahoma

Tuesday's elections include notable U.S. House primary races in Virginia and Oklahoma.
1 month ago
VA-05 candidates Rep. Bob Good and state Sen. John McGuire
1 month ago

Biden, Trump virtually tied in 538 poll

Former President Donald Trump has a slight edge over President Joe Biden.
1 month ago
VIDEO: Biden, Trump virtually tied in 538 poll
1 month ago

Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election

It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
1 month ago
President Joe Biden stands with his son Hunter Biden, who earlier in the day was found guilty on all three counts in his criminal gun charges trial, after President Biden arrived at the Delaware Air National Guard Base in New Castle, Del., June 11, 2024.
1 month ago

Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

Announcing 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model.
1 month ago
Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast.
1 month ago

Abortion-rights ballot measures are leading in the polls

What the polls say about 2024 abortion-rights ballot measures in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and South Dakota.
1 month ago
Several abortion-rights ballot measures are on the ballot this year.
1 month ago

Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early

National polling conducted immediately after Trump's guilty verdict reflects a slight swing toward Biden.
1 month ago
Former President Donald Trump, flanked by attorneys Todd Blanche and Emil Bove, arrives for his criminal trial at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York, NY on  May 29, 2024.
1 month ago

How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction

538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
1 month ago
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
2 months ago

Republicans are ramping up election fraud claims ahead of November

Republicans continue to embrace election denialism by pushing efforts to ban noncitizens from voting (which is already illegal).
2 months ago
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson speaks during a news conference on the steps of the U.S. Capitol introducing the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, to require proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections, May 8, 2024, in Washington.
2 months ago

What to know about the UK’s July general election

With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
2 months ago
With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
2 months ago

Will Nikki Haley supporters vote for Trump?

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
2 months ago
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
2 months ago

How will Trump's hush money trial impact the 2024 election?

Will the outcome of Trump's hush money trial matter to voters in November?
2 months ago
Welcome to 538's latest politics chat.
2 months ago

Senate Democrats are polling well. That could help Biden.

Senate Democrats are polling better than President Joe Biden. What does that mean for 2024?
2 months ago
President Joe Biden walks toward Air Force One at Andrews Air Force Base, Md., Oct. 20, 2021, with Sen. Bob Casey.
2 months ago

It doesn’t matter which candidate you’d rather have a beer with

In the third episode of our mini-series "Campaign Throwback," we explore whether Americans really choose their presidents based on personal relatability.
2 months ago
Welcome to the third episode of our miniseries "Campaign Throwback,"
2 months ago

6 elections to watch in Georgia, Oregon and Idaho

538 previews the May 21 primaries in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky.
2 months ago
Candidates running in the Democratic primary for Oregon's 5th Congressional District, attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner (left) and Oregon state Rep. Janelle Bynum.
2 months ago

Democracy is a top concern for many voters. We asked them why.

538 partnered with PerryUndem to conduct focus groups with undecided swing-state voters and delve deeper into how they're thinking about the state of our democracy.
2 months ago
In this Jan. 6, 2021, file photo, an image of President Donald Trump appears on video screens before his speech to supporters from the Ellipse at the White House in Washington, D.C., as the Congress prepares to certify the electoral college votes.