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December 19, 2024 at 6:51 PM

Why most of Trump's Cabinet picks will get confirmed by the Senate

Why most of Donald Trump's Cabinet picks will probably be confirmed.
December 19, 2024 at 6:51 PM
Will Trump's Cabinet nominees get confirmed?
December 18, 2024 at 7:27 PM

Why abortion didn't lead Democrats to victory in the 2024 election

Why abortion didn't lead to a Democratic win in the 2024 election.
December 18, 2024 at 7:27 PM
Abortion didn't affect the 2024 election as much as Democrats hoped.
December 17, 2024 at 9:16 PM

Our 2024 Superlatives | 538 politics podcast

On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew makes a yearbook and assigns superlatives.
December 17, 2024 at 9:16 PM
On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew makes a yearbook and assigns superlatives.
December 16, 2024 at 8:11 PM

Americans are unhappy with the state of health care and insurance

538's polling column about the state of health care, voters' trust in the 2024 election results and President Joe Biden's approval rating.
December 16, 2024 at 8:11 PM
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
December 12, 2024 at 11:46 PM

Where have all the Democrats gone?

Which counties swung right in the 2024 election?
December 12, 2024 at 11:46 PM
How every county shifted from the 2020 to 2024 election.
December 12, 2024 at 3:49 PM

After the 2024 election, Democrats are at a steep disadvantage in the Senate

Why it's hard for Democrats to win elections for U.S. Senate control.
December 12, 2024 at 3:49 PM
Democrats are at a disadvantage in the Senate.
December 10, 2024 at 9:58 PM

America's swing to the right in 2024 was wide, if not always deep

Trump gained ground in every state and most counties in the 2024 election compared to 2020.
December 10, 2024 at 9:58 PM
The 2024 election saw a broad swing to the right in how states and counties voted compared to 2020.
December 9, 2024 at 8:29 PM

Trump's Cabinet woes are back, earlier than ever

President-elect Donald Trump could break the record for most failed Cabinet nominations to start a term.
December 9, 2024 at 8:29 PM
Pete Hegseth, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for secretary of defense, and his wife Jennifer Rauchet arrive for meetings on Capitol Hill, Dec. 9, 2024, in Washington.
December 5, 2024 at 9:07 PM

Why Democrats now support the Hunter Biden pardon

538's polling column about President Joe Biden's pardon of his son, Sarah McBride's favorability and the future of America.
December 5, 2024 at 9:07 PM
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
December 4, 2024 at 4:25 PM

Has the number of women in Congress hit a ceiling?

Neither party made significant gains in 2024, and Republican women still lag behind.
December 4, 2024 at 4:25 PM
Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Kristen McDonald Rivet, Janelle Bynum, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez  and Jen Kiggans were among the women who won highly competitive House elections in 2024.
December 2, 2024 at 10:28 PM

Why Republicans start out as favorites in the 2026 Senate elections

Democrats need to flip four Senate seats in 2026 to reclaim a majority, but have few clear targets.
December 2, 2024 at 10:28 PM
At least 35 seats in the U.S. Senate are expected to be up for election in November 2026.
December 2, 2024 at 6:43 PM

Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part.

As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ABC News is reporting that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208.
December 2, 2024 at 6:43 PM
Republicans are set to control a very narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2024 election.
November 26, 2024 at 8:55 PM

The 2024 presidential election was close, not a landslide

Donald Trump's close win over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election hasn't stopped him from claiming a mandate.
November 26, 2024 at 8:55 PM
President-elect Donald Trump's 2024 win was historically narrow.
1 month ago

The congressional bathroom ban is the latest transgender policy battle

538's polling column about Republicans' transgender bathroom bans, Trump's transition, trust in polls and Thanksgiving plans.
1 month ago
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
1 month ago

How pollsters' methodology may have changed

538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik weigh in on whether pollsters changed their strategy in the last election cycle.
1 month ago
538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik weigh in on whether pollsters changed their strategy in the last election cycle.
1 month ago

What the 2024 election tells us about past elections

538’s Galen Druke and the panel discuss what conclusions can be drawn from the 2024 presidential election and if it can tell us more about the 2016 and 2020 elections.
1 month ago
538’s Galen Druke and the panel discuss what conclusions can be drawn from the 2024 presidential election and if it can tell us more about the 2016 and 2020 elections.
1 month ago

Gaetz is out. Will Trump's other Cabinet picks be confirmed?

Matt Gaetz has withdrawn, but will other Trump Cabinet nominees have trouble with confirmation?
1 month ago
Welcome to 538's latest politics chat.
1 month ago

What the gender gap tells us about Trump's win

Donald Trump's appeals to young men and men of color in the 2024 election campaign may have paid off.
1 month ago
Donald Trump once again saw notably higher support among men than women in 2024.
1 month ago

Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world

Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024 elections.
1 month ago
Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024.
1 month ago

Texas may finally pass school choice in 2025

A school-voucher-like program could pass in Texas after the 2024 election.
1 month ago
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had a great 2024 election — and he wasn't even on the ballot.
1 month ago

Why voters chose Trump

Despite Donald Trump's unpopularity, he won on immigration, the economy and leadership.
1 month ago
As Donald Trump prepares for a second term as president, 538 dug into the polls to see what Americans think about his policy opinions and rhetoric
1 month ago

How the issue of immigration may evolve in a second Trump term

538's Galen Druke and Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discuss how much is known about the mass deportation and immigration policy of president-elect Donald Trump.
1 month ago
538's Galen Druke and Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discuss how much is known about the mass deportation and immigration policy of president-elect Donald Trump.
1 month ago

Are Latino voters shifting or in a realignment?

Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke take a deep dive into whether the 2024 voting trends of Latino voters are a shift or a full-blown realignment.
1 month ago
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke take a deep dive into whether the 2024 voting trends of Latino voters are a shift or a full-blown realignment.
1 month ago

What 2024 election polls showed about the Latino electorate

Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.
1 month ago
Polls of Latino voters during the 2024 election were a mixed bag of accuracy.  Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.
1 month ago

How Democrats won Senate seats in states that Trump carried

The 2024 election had at least three split-ticket results, though presidential and Senate votes still closely aligned.
1 month ago
At least three Democratic Senate candidates are poised to win their contests in states that Donald Trump carried in the 2024 presidential race.
1 month ago

2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump

How accurate were polls of the 2024 election?
1 month ago
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump and former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla.
2 months ago

Republicans won the Senate

How big will the Republicans' U.S. Senate majority be?
2 months ago
Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno speaks during a watch party on election night, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Westlake, Ohio.
2 months ago

What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?

The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
2 months ago
An Electoral College tie in the 2024 presidential election is unlikely but plausible.
2 months ago

The biggest takeaway from the latest Iowa poll | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke discusses the latest Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa on the eve of Election Day.
2 months ago
538's Galen Druke discusses the latest Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa on the eve of Election Day.
2 months ago

49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election

Ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election related to abortion, voting, drugs, workers' rights, and more.
2 months ago
There are dozens of interesting ballot measures on the ballot on Nov. 5.
2 months ago

When will we know 2024 election results?

When will we know who won the 2024 presidential election? 538 shows you when to expect results in all 50 states.
2 months ago
When to expect election results in all 50 states.
2 months ago

The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024

Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are hosting competitive races for state legislative chambers in 2024.
2 months ago
The 2024 election has a number of highly-contested races for state legislatures around the country.
2 months ago

The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania

538's final deep dive into swing states in the 2024 election focusing on Pennslyvania voters.
2 months ago
Pennsylvania is one of seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
2 months ago

Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout

How accurate will the polls of the 2024 presidential election be?
2 months ago
Either candidate could win all seven main swing states.
2 months ago

How to look at early voting data responsibly

With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.
2 months ago
How to look at early voting data responsibly
2 months ago

Does only 3% of America care about democracy?

The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.
2 months ago
Does only 3% of America care about democracy?
2 months ago

How will young men vote in the 2024 election?

538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.
2 months ago
How will young men vote in the 2024 election?
2 months ago

Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up

538's 2024 presidential election forecast shows a very close, toss-up race, with Trump taking a small lead.
2 months ago
A 538 Election Update for Friday, Oct. 18.
2 months ago

2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality

How polling in 2024 compares with other recent election cycles.
2 months ago
The 2024 election cycle has fewer polls than past years, but data suggests that they're of higher quality.
2 months ago

In 2024, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states

There are 10 states with abortion rights initiatives in the 2024 election.
2 months ago
Signs supporting the Right to Abortion Initiative are displayed during a rally on Sept. 5, 2024 in Bozeman, Montana.
2 months ago

Which states have the most — and least — accurate polls?

Polling is more accurate in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.
2 months ago
538 looks at polling reliability across the country – including the key battleground states.
2 months ago

Can Democrats win Arizona again in 2024?

538's sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states of the 2024 election focuses on Arizona.
2 months ago
Arizona is one of seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
2 months ago

This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don't trust either party to fix it.

The 2024 presidential election in Duval County, Florida, could be decided by inflation and housing costs.
2 months ago
Jacksonville has experienced some of the steepest increases in cost of living in the country since the pandemic.
2 months ago

Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up

As a rural dog owner, I know Kristi Noem's story is far from normal.
2 months ago
Governor of South Dakota Kristi Noem delivers remarks as she attends the 2024 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center in Maryland, February 23, 2024.
2 months ago

Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate

What 538's 2024 Senate election forecast says.
2 months ago
Introducing 538's 2024 Senate forecast
2 months ago

Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?

Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
2 months ago
The team at 538 takes a look at Wisconsin’s voting history and significance as a battleground state.
2 months ago

Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
2 months ago
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
2 months ago

Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles

Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.
2 months ago
A customer charges his Tesla at a new Rove EV charging center on E. 17th Street in Santa Ana, Calif., on Oct. 9, 2024.
2 months ago

The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy

How education is impacting the 2024 election and what school choice ballot measures are on the ballot.
2 months ago
Several states are voting on education-related ballot measures in 2024.
2 months ago

Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?

The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
2 months ago
The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.