Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
2 months ago
What to expect from Trump's address to Congress
President Donald Trump's flurry of executive actions may foreshadow fewer congressional requests in his address to a joint session of Congress.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Who will win at the 2025 Oscars?
Other award shows can help us predict the winners of the 2025 Oscars.
2 months ago
2 months ago
How Trump's push for Canadian statehood would hurt the GOP
President Donald Trump's assertion that Canada should become the 51st state would likely lead to major Democratic electoral gains.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Americans voted for Trump, but don't support his agenda
What polls say about President Donald Trump's policies and executive orders.
2 months ago
2 months ago
How 'DEI' replaced 'structural racism' in the national conversation
How the conversation about DEI has evolved over time.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Why it matters that Trump is deleting government data
The potential side effects of President Donald Trump's deletion of government data.
2 months ago
2 months ago
What Americans think of Trump's support for Israel
538's polling column on what Americans think of President Trump's support for Israel, plus polls on U.S. expansion, the Russia-Ukraine war and Trump's approval rating.
2 months ago
2 months ago
How much is Trump to blame for high egg prices?
How much is Donald Trump to blame for high egg prices?
2 months ago
2 months ago
How Americans' changing views on health paved the way for RFK Jr.
The rise of misinformation online has helped fringe health ideas go mainstream and eased RFK Jr.'s path to confirmation as secretary of health and human services.
2 months ago
2 months ago
What do Americans think about Trump's tariffs?
Will Trump's tariffs hurt the economy, and how popular are they?
2 months ago
3 months ago
What's driving Haley's rise in the GOP primary polls?
Who are the voters driving Nikki Haley's rise in the polls?
3 months ago
3 months ago
Why abortion didn't lead Democrats to victory in the 2024 election
Why abortion didn't lead to a Democratic win in the 2024 election.
3 months ago
3 months ago
Why congressional Republicans aren't standing up to Trump
Most Republicans in Congress were elected in the Donald Trump era.
3 months ago
3 months ago
Trump has already issued (and revoked) a record number of executive orders
President Donald Trump has already issued (and revoked) a record number of executive orders.
3 months ago
3 months ago
The 2026 Michigan Senate race is already heating up
Sen. Gary Peters's decision to retire will affect control of the Senate, presidential aspirants and the rise or fall of other notable figures in Michigan politics.
3 months ago
3 months ago
How Biden reshaped the judiciary
President Joe Biden's judicial appointees were the most diverse ever, but Donald Trump's remain more influential.
3 months ago
3 months ago
What do Americans think about Musk's attempts to cut government?
A 538 politics chat on Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency.
3 months ago
3 months ago
How qualified are Trump's cabinet picks?
The experience and career paths of President Donald Trump's Cabinet picks.
3 months ago
3 months ago
How Americans feel about Republicans' proposed health care cuts
Polling shows Medicaid and other federal health programs are widely popular.
3 months ago
3 months ago
What polling tells us about Americans' support for Trump's mass deportations
What polling tells us about Americans' support for President Donald Trump's mass deportations.
3 months ago
3 months ago
No, Trump can't cancel the 2028 election. But he could still weaken democracy.
Experts say Donald Trump faces fewer barriers to consolidating power in his second term.
3 months ago
3 months ago
Introducing 538's presidential approval polling average for Donald Trump
Introducing 538's new average of President Donald Trump's job approval rating.
3 months ago
3 months ago
What we saw during Trump's first week in office
President Donald Trump's first week in office focused on immigration over the economy and continued to play to his base.
3 months ago
3 months ago
What the polls say about Trump's executive actions
Americans support Donald Trump’s immigration policies, but not much else.
3 months ago
3 months ago
The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024
Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are hosting competitive races for state legislative chambers in 2024.
3 months ago
3 months ago
How Americans are reacting to the Los Angeles wildfires
Polling shows many Americans blame climate change for the Los Angeles wildfires.
3 months ago
3 months ago
What can we expect from Trump's first 100 days?
He's vowed mass deportations, travel bans and expanded oil drilling.
3 months ago
3 months ago
Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world
Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024 elections.
3 months ago
3 months ago
2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How polling in 2024 compares with other recent election cycles.
3 months ago
3 months ago
How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024
Five states redrew their district lines and the changes could impact who wins the House in the 2024 election.
3 months ago
3 months ago
Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election
538 does its third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Michigan, which is dependent on Black and Arab American voters.
3 months ago
3 months ago
Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries
Progressive candidates won most of the open primary races they ran in for U.S. Senate, House and governor in 2024.
3 months ago
3 months ago
Americans really love their governors
America’s governors are popular, but just how popular?
3 months ago
3 months ago
What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table
Breaking down eight possible candidates for Kamala Harris's VP pick.
3 months ago
3 months ago
Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term
The Supreme Court tends to release unpopular opinions later in its term.
3 months ago
3 months ago
How often every member of Congress voted with Biden in 2023
How often did Senate and House Democrats and Republicans vote with President Joe Biden in 2023?
3 months ago
3 months ago
Can a busy campaign schedule save Trump's GOP primary opponents?
538 tracked which GOP primary candidates are holding the most campaign events in Iowa and New Hampshire.
3 months ago
3 months ago
These under-the-radar 2024 elections could have a big impact
The under-the-radar elections to watch in 2024.
3 months ago
3 months ago
What do Americans think of the Biden impeachment inquiry?
Americans narrowly support the House opening an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, but oppose actual impeachment.
3 months ago
3 months ago
Who were the strongest Senate and House candidates of 2024?
538 looks at the 2024 election results to see which Senate and House candidates were the strongest and weakest.
3 months ago
3 months ago
Why Trump is getting more popular
Donald Trump's favorability rating and popularity are near a record high.
3 months ago
4 months ago
Why the speaker vote should still worry Mike Johnson
Which Republicans initially opposed Mike Johnson for speaker of the House?
4 months ago
4 months ago
Key elections to watch in 2025
Races for governor, mayor and U.S. House special elections will be in the spotlight in 2025.
4 months ago
4 months ago
What I got wrong in 2024
Senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich roasts his predictions from 2024.
4 months ago
4 months ago
Jimmy Carter was ahead of his time on energy (and craft brewing)
Jimmy Carter's presidency in four charts.
4 months ago
4 months ago
How will Jimmy Carter be remembered?
538 analysts discuss President Jimmy Carter's legacy.
4 months ago
4 months ago
26 charts that helped explain 2024 in politics
The best charts 538 made in 2024.
4 months ago
4 months ago
Why most of Trump's Cabinet picks will get confirmed by the Senate
Why most of Donald Trump's Cabinet picks will probably be confirmed.
4 months ago
4 months ago
Our 2024 Superlatives | 538 politics podcast
On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew makes a yearbook and assigns superlatives.
4 months ago
4 months ago
Americans are unhappy with the state of health care and insurance
538's polling column about the state of health care, voters' trust in the 2024 election results and President Joe Biden's approval rating.
4 months ago