Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
42 minutes ago
What can we expect from Trump's first 100 days?
He's vowed mass deportations, travel bans and expanded oil drilling.
42 minutes ago
1 hour ago
Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world
Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024 elections.
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How polling in 2024 compares with other recent election cycles.
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024
Five states redrew their district lines and the changes could impact who wins the House in the 2024 election.
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election
538 does its third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Michigan, which is dependent on Black and Arab American voters.
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries
Progressive candidates won most of the open primary races they ran in for U.S. Senate, House and governor in 2024.
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
Americans really love their governors
America’s governors are popular, but just how popular?
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table
Breaking down eight possible candidates for Kamala Harris's VP pick.
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term
The Supreme Court tends to release unpopular opinions later in its term.
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
How often every member of Congress voted with Biden in 2023
How often did Senate and House Democrats and Republicans vote with President Joe Biden in 2023?
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
Can a busy campaign schedule save Trump's GOP primary opponents?
538 tracked which GOP primary candidates are holding the most campaign events in Iowa and New Hampshire.
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
These under-the-radar 2024 elections could have a big impact
The under-the-radar elections to watch in 2024.
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
What do Americans think of the Biden impeachment inquiry?
Americans narrowly support the House opening an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, but oppose actual impeachment.
1 hour ago
January 17, 2025 at 5:54 PM
How Americans are reacting to the Los Angeles wildfires
Polling shows many Americans blame climate change for the Los Angeles wildfires.
January 17, 2025 at 5:54 PM
January 17, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Who were the strongest Senate and House candidates of 2024?
538 looks at the 2024 election results to see which Senate and House candidates were the strongest and weakest.
January 17, 2025 at 5:38 PM
January 16, 2025 at 9:29 PM
How Biden reshaped the judiciary
President Joe Biden's judicial appointees were the most diverse ever, but Donald Trump's remain more influential.
January 16, 2025 at 9:29 PM
January 13, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Why Trump is getting more popular
Donald Trump's favorability rating and popularity are near a record high.
January 13, 2025 at 6:25 PM
January 7, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Why the speaker vote should still worry Mike Johnson
Which Republicans initially opposed Mike Johnson for speaker of the House?
January 7, 2025 at 6:27 PM
January 6, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Key elections to watch in 2025
Races for governor, mayor and U.S. House special elections will be in the spotlight in 2025.
January 6, 2025 at 2:43 PM
January 2, 2025 at 2:24 PM
What I got wrong in 2024
Senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich roasts his predictions from 2024.
January 2, 2025 at 2:24 PM
December 30, 2024 at 9:14 PM
Jimmy Carter was ahead of his time on energy (and craft brewing)
Jimmy Carter's presidency in four charts.
December 30, 2024 at 9:14 PM
December 30, 2024 at 8:16 PM
How will Jimmy Carter be remembered?
538 analysts discuss President Jimmy Carter's legacy.
December 30, 2024 at 8:16 PM
December 26, 2024 at 3:19 PM
26 charts that helped explain 2024 in politics
The best charts 538 made in 2024.
December 26, 2024 at 3:19 PM
1 month ago
Why most of Trump's Cabinet picks will get confirmed by the Senate
Why most of Donald Trump's Cabinet picks will probably be confirmed.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why abortion didn't lead Democrats to victory in the 2024 election
Why abortion didn't lead to a Democratic win in the 2024 election.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Our 2024 Superlatives | 538 politics podcast
On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew makes a yearbook and assigns superlatives.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Americans are unhappy with the state of health care and insurance
538's polling column about the state of health care, voters' trust in the 2024 election results and President Joe Biden's approval rating.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Where have all the Democrats gone?
Which counties swung right in the 2024 election?
1 month ago
1 month ago
After the 2024 election, Democrats are at a steep disadvantage in the Senate
Why it's hard for Democrats to win elections for U.S. Senate control.
1 month ago
1 month ago
America's swing to the right in 2024 was wide, if not always deep
Trump gained ground in every state and most counties in the 2024 election compared to 2020.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Trump's Cabinet woes are back, earlier than ever
President-elect Donald Trump could break the record for most failed Cabinet nominations to start a term.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why Democrats now support the Hunter Biden pardon
538's polling column about President Joe Biden's pardon of his son, Sarah McBride's favorability and the future of America.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Has the number of women in Congress hit a ceiling?
Neither party made significant gains in 2024, and Republican women still lag behind.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why Republicans start out as favorites in the 2026 Senate elections
Democrats need to flip four Senate seats in 2026 to reclaim a majority, but have few clear targets.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part.
As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ABC News is reporting that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208.
1 month ago
2 months ago
The 2024 presidential election was close, not a landslide
Donald Trump's close win over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election hasn't stopped him from claiming a mandate.
2 months ago
2 months ago
The congressional bathroom ban is the latest transgender policy battle
538's polling column about Republicans' transgender bathroom bans, Trump's transition, trust in polls and Thanksgiving plans.
2 months ago
2 months ago
How pollsters' methodology may have changed
538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik weigh in on whether pollsters changed their strategy in the last election cycle.
2 months ago
2 months ago
What the 2024 election tells us about past elections
538’s Galen Druke and the panel discuss what conclusions can be drawn from the 2024 presidential election and if it can tell us more about the 2016 and 2020 elections.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Gaetz is out. Will Trump's other Cabinet picks be confirmed?
Matt Gaetz has withdrawn, but will other Trump Cabinet nominees have trouble with confirmation?
2 months ago
2 months ago
What the gender gap tells us about Trump's win
Donald Trump's appeals to young men and men of color in the 2024 election campaign may have paid off.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Texas may finally pass school choice in 2025
A school-voucher-like program could pass in Texas after the 2024 election.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Why voters chose Trump
Despite Donald Trump's unpopularity, he won on immigration, the economy and leadership.
2 months ago
2 months ago
How the issue of immigration may evolve in a second Trump term
538's Galen Druke and Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discuss how much is known about the mass deportation and immigration policy of president-elect Donald Trump.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Are Latino voters shifting or in a realignment?
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke take a deep dive into whether the 2024 voting trends of Latino voters are a shift or a full-blown realignment.
2 months ago
2 months ago
What 2024 election polls showed about the Latino electorate
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.
2 months ago
2 months ago
How Democrats won Senate seats in states that Trump carried
The 2024 election had at least three split-ticket results, though presidential and Senate votes still closely aligned.
2 months ago
2 months ago
2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump
How accurate were polls of the 2024 election?
2 months ago
2 months ago
Republicans won the Senate
How big will the Republicans' U.S. Senate majority be?
2 months ago
2 months ago
What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?
The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
2 months ago