538
Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
3 hours ago

How 538's 2024 House election forecast works

The methodology of 538's 2024 House of Representatives forecast model.
3 hours ago
How 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast works.
4 hours ago

The 2024 race to control the House couldn't be tighter

Introducing 538's forecast for U.S. House of Representatives races in 2024.
4 hours ago
Introducing 538's 2024 House forecast
October 8, 2024 at 2:48 PM

What Americans think about the war in Gaza, a year after the Oct. 7 attacks

A year after October 7, 2023, 538 looks at polls on how Americans feel about Israel, Palestine and conflict in the Middle East.
October 8, 2024 at 2:48 PM
Israeli army battle tanks operate in southern Israel near the border with the Gaza Strip, May 29, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict in the Palestinian territory between Israel and the Hamas movement.
October 4, 2024 at 6:52 PM

Which way are key demographic groups leaning in the 2024 election?

Polling averages of Kamala Harris's and Donald Trump's support among Black, Hispanic, white, young, old, male, female, college-educated and non-college-educated voters.
October 4, 2024 at 6:52 PM
A deep dive into the crosstabs of presidential polls.
October 3, 2024 at 7:58 PM

Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election

538 does its third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Michigan, which is dependent on Black and Arab American voters.
October 3, 2024 at 7:58 PM
Michigan is a pivotal swing state in the 2024 presidential election.
October 3, 2024 at 6:42 PM

How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
October 3, 2024 at 6:42 PM
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
October 3, 2024 at 4:38 PM

Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?

The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
October 3, 2024 at 4:38 PM
The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
October 2, 2024 at 5:48 PM

What early polls say about who won the VP debate

Americans are split over whether Sen. JD Vance or Gov. Tim Walz won Tuesday's vice presidential debate.
October 2, 2024 at 5:48 PM
People watch the debate between Senator JD Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz at the Gaf East Bar in Manhattan, October 1, 2024.
October 1, 2024 at 3:04 PM

Why VP debates aren't all that important

Historically, VP debates haven't really moved the polls.
October 1, 2024 at 3:04 PM
Democratic vice presidential candidate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz speaks during a campaign rally, Aug. 9, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz. Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance speaks to supporters during a campaign event at the Northwestern Michigan Fair grounds, Sept. 25, 2024, in Traverse City, Mich.
September 30, 2024 at 7:49 PM

Pro-Israel groups spent big to oust two Squad members in primaries

Pro-Israel groups focused their spending on defeating two members of the Squad, and had a fairly strong showing in Democratic primary endorsements.
September 30, 2024 at 7:49 PM
Pro-Israel groups spent big  on Democratic primaries in 2024, including to oppose Squad members Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush.
September 30, 2024 at 7:34 PM

Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries

Progressive candidates won most of the open primary races they ran in for U.S. Senate, House and governor in 2024.
September 30, 2024 at 7:34 PM
538 tracked how candidates endorsed by major progressive groups did in 2024 Democratic primaries.
September 30, 2024 at 2:19 PM

Economy is key, margins small in latest polling: 538

538’s Galen Druke discusses where Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are leading in the 20204 presidential election.
September 30, 2024 at 2:19 PM
VIDEO: Economy is key, margins small in latest polling: 538
September 27, 2024 at 9:17 PM

Why the GOP could win Nevada for the first time in 20 years

538's second deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states in the 2024 presidential election.
September 27, 2024 at 9:17 PM
Nevada is one of seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
September 27, 2024 at 3:04 PM

Efforts to elect more Republican women stalled in the 2024 primaries

GOP efforts to recruit and support female candidates in primaries stalled this year, while Democratic women could expand their ranks after a strong showing.
September 27, 2024 at 3:04 PM
More Democratic than Republican women ran in and won their congressional and gubernatorial primary contests in 2024.
September 24, 2024 at 7:24 PM

This could be the closest presidential election since 1876

The latest 538 forecast of the 2024 presidential election has Harris and Trump essentially tied.
September 24, 2024 at 7:24 PM
There is a divide between the northern and southern battleground states.
September 24, 2024 at 5:16 PM

538's polls policy and FAQs

How 538 decides which polls to include in its aggregation and models.
September 24, 2024 at 5:16 PM
Frequently asked questions about how 538 collects polls.
September 24, 2024 at 5:06 PM

What polling says about key 2024 Senate races

538 has released U.S. Senate polling averages for the 2024 general election.
September 24, 2024 at 5:06 PM
538 has released polling averages for key 2024 U.S. Senate races.
September 21, 2024 at 12:47 AM

What to know about 'Black Voters for Trump' | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting block.
September 21, 2024 at 12:47 AM
538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting bloc.
September 20, 2024 at 11:08 PM

How Harris talks about race and gender on the campaign trail | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris' approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.
September 20, 2024 at 11:08 PM
538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris’s approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.
September 20, 2024 at 11:06 PM

How important is identity to Black voters? | 538 Politics podcast

University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss data on "linked fate" across interracial voters and voters of different political ideologies.
September 20, 2024 at 11:06 PM
University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss data on "linked fate" across interracial voters and voters of different political ideologies.
September 20, 2024 at 4:07 PM

Can Harris win back Biden's Israel-Gaza critics?

What are Kamala Harris's views on Israel, and will pro-Palestinian "uncommitted" voters prefer her over Joe Biden?
September 20, 2024 at 4:07 PM
People gather to protest a campaign event for Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris on Aug. 14, 2024 in New York City.
September 20, 2024 at 2:15 PM

How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024

538's first deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states in the 2024 presidential election, plus a look at the Robinson-Stein governor's race.
September 20, 2024 at 2:15 PM
538 North Carolina story
September 17, 2024 at 7:20 PM

Polls show Harris gaining after the presidential debate

What the 538 election forecast says after the Harris-Trump presidential debate.
September 17, 2024 at 7:20 PM
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaking at the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's Phoenix Awards Dinner in Washington, Sept. 14, 2024.
September 16, 2024 at 2:49 PM

How to read political polls in 2024

Not all political polls are created equal. Here's 538's guide to interpreting them.
September 16, 2024 at 2:49 PM
538's guide for how to interpret polls.
1 month ago

How Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris could change the election end game

Taylor Swift’s fans largely lean Democratic, but her support of Kamala Harris could boost engagement.
1 month ago
Pop star Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president and encouraged fans to register to vote on Tuesday, Sept. 10.
1 month ago

What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate

Heading into the debate, Americans have higher expectations of Kamala Harris, but favor Donald Trump on key issues.
1 month ago
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will face off in their first head-to-head presidential debate on Sept. 10.
1 month ago

6 primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Delaware

538 breaks down six high-profile primaries for the U.S. House and governor in New Hampshire and Delaware.
1 month ago
 Former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire speaks at a campaign rally in Gilford, N.H., Sept. 22, 2020/New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Chuck Morse speaks during a debate in Henniker, N.H., Sept. 7, 2022.
1 month ago

Polling shows close presidential race ahead of debate

538 political podcast host Galen Druke joins the show to discuss the polling numbers showing that Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump.
1 month ago
VIDEO: Polling shows close presidential race ahead of debate
1 month ago

Customize our 2024 presidential election forecast

538's "what-if" interactive lets you pick the winner of each state and see how it would shift the range of outcomes in our 2024 presidential election forecast.
1 month ago
See how 538's presidential forecast would change if Harris or Trump win a specific state.
1 month ago

The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion

Will there be long lines at the polls and voter confusion over new voting laws in the 2024 election?
1 month ago
People wait in line for early voting for the midterm elections at Ponce De Leon Library on Nov. 4, 2022 in Atlanta.
1 month ago

Can a smartphone app conduct political polls?

We clear up some confusion over ActiVote, a prolific pollster with unique methods.
1 month ago
ActiVote is a voter-education tool that also conducts polls via its smartphone app.
1 month ago

Harris's candidacy has caused a surge in voter enthusiasm | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
1 month ago
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
1 month ago

Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's platform?

Test your knowledge of public opinion on Democratic nominee Kamala Harris's policy positions.
1 month ago
How popular are Vice President Kamala Harris and her policy positions?
1 month ago

Is the Democratic Party a strong party?

The Democrats' Biden-Harris switch shows that the strong political party may be making a comeback.
1 month ago
Vice President Kamala Harris officially accepts the presidential nomination at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 22, 2024.
1 month ago

What can Washington's primary tell us about the fight for the House majority?

Why Washington’s primary suggests House Democrats could gain nationally but lose a seat locally.
1 month ago
House primary results in Washington state tend to predict general election trends both locally and nationally.
1 month ago

Harris got a polling bounce before her convention, not after

Former President Donald Trump got a small boost after the RNC, but Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy has reset the race.
1 month ago
Vice President Kamala Harris's position in the polls has remained steady since the Democratic National Convention
1 month ago

How did Democrats talk about issues at a DNC devoted to ideals?

At the DNC, Democrats played to their party's strengths on issues like abortion rights, health care and protecting democracy.
1 month ago
Attendees hold freedom signs on the second day of the Democratic National Convention, August 20, 2024, at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois.
1 month ago

3 reasons why racist attacks on Harris could backfire

Why racist attacks from Donald Trump probably won't hurt Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.
1 month ago
Former President Donald Trump participating in a Q&A with Rachel Scott, senior congressional correspondent for ABC News, during the National Association of Black Journalists Annual Convention and Career Fair at Hilton Chicago July 31, 2024.
2 months ago

Chicago's young voters talk 2024 presidential election at the DNC

538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich speaks with three young voters from Chicago as the 2024 Democratic National Convention takes place.
2 months ago
Chicago's young voters voice their opinion on 2024 presidential election
2 months ago

Yes, party conventions matter

While most viewers are partisans, party conventions help energize the party bases, which are key to success in November.
2 months ago
Political conventions tend to attract viewers who are already politically engaged and partisan-affiliated.
2 months ago

Harris is starting to rebuild the Biden coalition

Amid the DNC, we look at how Kamala Harris's support among Black and Hispanic voters, young voters, women, men and non-college-educated white voters compares with Biden.
2 months ago
538 took a deep dive into Harris's polling numbers
2 months ago

Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke discusses Harris' policy positions, or the lack thereof, with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, and whether this could be an advantage for her.
2 months ago
Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast
2 months ago

Who are presidential delegates and what are their roles?

538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich explains the role of delegates and how they're selected as the 2024 DNC kicks off in Chicago.
2 months ago
Who are presidential delegates and what are their roles?
2 months ago

JD Vance is more unpopular than Sarah Palin

Vance is one of the least popular vice-presidential picks this century.
2 months ago
Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance reacts to the cheering crowd during a campaign event in Reno, Nev., July 30, 2024.
2 months ago

Will Harris's late start help or hurt her in the general election?

Kamala Harris isn't the first candidate to secure a presidential nomination this late.
2 months ago
Harris isn't the only presidential nominee to clinch her party's nomination late in the election cycle.
2 months ago

6 primaries to watch in Minnesota and Wisconsin

538 breaks down six high-profile primaries for the U.S. Senate and House in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
2 months ago
lhan Omar and Don Samuels
2 months ago

Americans don't like Project 2025

538's polling column about Project 2025, vaccines, the child tax credit and which party is more "weird."
2 months ago
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
2 months ago

Why immigration is a better issue for Trump than it was in 2020

Why immigration is such a good issue for Donald Trump and Republicans.
2 months ago
Public opinion on immigration has swung toward Republicans.
2 months ago

What is civic respect? | 538 Politics Podcast

Political science professors Elizabeth Theiss-Morse and Jeff Spinner-Halev talk about sweeping claims and how they relate to civic respect.
2 months ago
Political science professors Elizabeth Theiss-Morse and Jeff Spinner-Halev talk about sweeping claims and how they relate to civic respect.
2 months ago

The challenges ahead for the Harris-Walz campaign | 538 Politics Podcast

ABC News Politics Reporter Brittany Shepherd discusses the Harris-Walz campaign and its challenges.
2 months ago
ABC News Politics Reporter Brittany Shepherd discusses the Harris-Walz campaign and its challenges.