Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
November 19, 2024 at 10:14 PM
What the gender gap tells us about Trump's win
Donald Trump's appeals to young men and men of color in the 2024 election campaign may have paid off.
November 19, 2024 at 10:14 PM
November 18, 2024 at 8:44 PM
Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world
Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024 elections.
November 18, 2024 at 8:44 PM
November 15, 2024 at 3:12 PM
Texas may finally pass school choice in 2025
A school-voucher-like program could pass in Texas after the 2024 election.
November 15, 2024 at 3:12 PM
November 14, 2024 at 9:09 PM
Why voters chose Trump
Despite Donald Trump's unpopularity, he won on immigration, the economy and leadership.
November 14, 2024 at 9:09 PM
November 14, 2024 at 6:27 PM
How the issue of immigration may evolve in a second Trump term
538's Galen Druke and Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discuss how much is known about the mass deportation and immigration policy of president-elect Donald Trump.
November 14, 2024 at 6:27 PM
November 14, 2024 at 6:06 PM
Are Latino voters shifting or in a realignment?
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke take a deep dive into whether the 2024 voting trends of Latino voters are a shift or a full-blown realignment.
November 14, 2024 at 6:06 PM
November 14, 2024 at 5:39 PM
What 2024 election polls showed about the Latino electorate
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.
November 14, 2024 at 5:39 PM
November 13, 2024 at 9:50 PM
Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part.
As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ABC News is reporting that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208.
November 13, 2024 at 9:50 PM
November 11, 2024 at 8:18 PM
How Democrats won Senate seats in states that Trump carried
The 2024 election had at least three split-ticket results, though presidential and Senate votes still closely aligned.
November 11, 2024 at 8:18 PM
November 8, 2024 at 9:21 PM
2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump
How accurate were polls of the 2024 election?
November 8, 2024 at 9:21 PM
November 6, 2024 at 2:50 PM
Republicans won the Senate
How big will the Republicans' U.S. Senate majority be?
November 6, 2024 at 2:50 PM
November 5, 2024 at 4:22 PM
What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?
The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
November 5, 2024 at 4:22 PM
November 5, 2024 at 5:45 AM
The biggest takeaway from the latest Iowa poll | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke discusses the latest Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa on the eve of Election Day.
November 5, 2024 at 5:45 AM
November 4, 2024 at 9:27 PM
49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election
Ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election related to abortion, voting, drugs, workers' rights, and more.
November 4, 2024 at 9:27 PM
November 1, 2024 at 5:57 PM
When will we know 2024 election results?
When will we know who won the 2024 presidential election? 538 shows you when to expect results in all 50 states.
November 1, 2024 at 5:57 PM
November 1, 2024 at 1:21 AM
The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024
Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are hosting competitive races for state legislative chambers in 2024.
November 1, 2024 at 1:21 AM
October 31, 2024 at 5:15 PM
The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania
538's final deep dive into swing states in the 2024 election focusing on Pennslyvania voters.
October 31, 2024 at 5:15 PM
October 30, 2024 at 7:29 PM
Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout
How accurate will the polls of the 2024 presidential election be?
October 30, 2024 at 7:29 PM
October 30, 2024 at 1:30 AM
How to look at early voting data responsibly
With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.
October 30, 2024 at 1:30 AM
October 30, 2024 at 1:27 AM
Does only 3% of America care about democracy?
The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.
October 30, 2024 at 1:27 AM
October 30, 2024 at 1:19 AM
How will young men vote in the 2024 election?
538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.
October 30, 2024 at 1:19 AM
October 29, 2024 at 4:50 PM
Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up
538's 2024 presidential election forecast shows a very close, toss-up race, with Trump taking a small lead.
October 29, 2024 at 4:50 PM
October 28, 2024 at 9:01 PM
2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How polling in 2024 compares with other recent election cycles.
October 28, 2024 at 9:01 PM
October 28, 2024 at 7:35 PM
In 2024, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states
There are 10 states with abortion rights initiatives in the 2024 election.
October 28, 2024 at 7:35 PM
1 month ago
Which states have the most — and least — accurate polls?
Polling is more accurate in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Can Democrats win Arizona again in 2024?
538's sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states of the 2024 election focuses on Arizona.
1 month ago
1 month ago
This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don't trust either party to fix it.
The 2024 presidential election in Duval County, Florida, could be decided by inflation and housing costs.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up
As a rural dog owner, I know Kristi Noem's story is far from normal.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate
What 538's 2024 Senate election forecast says.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?
Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles
Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.
1 month ago
1 month ago
The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy
How education is impacting the 2024 election and what school choice ballot measures are on the ballot.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?
The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why voting patterns may shift this election
538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election
Hurricanes Helene and Milton may not change many voters' minds, but they could dampen turnout in the hardest-hit areas.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024
538 does its fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Georgia, which could swing back to the GOP in 2024.
1 month ago
1 month ago
3 states could vote to mandate paid sick days
Paid sick leave is on the ballot in Alaska, Nebraska, and Missouri in the 2024 election.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris
Campaign visits probably won't make a difference in the 2024 presidential election.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024
Five states redrew their district lines and the changes could impact who wins the House in the 2024 election.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How 538's 2024 House election forecast works
The methodology of 538's 2024 House of Representatives forecast model.
1 month ago
1 month ago
The 2024 race to control the House couldn't be tighter
Introducing 538's forecast for U.S. House of Representatives races in 2024.
1 month ago
1 month ago
What Americans think about the war in Gaza, a year after the Oct. 7 attacks
A year after October 7, 2023, 538 looks at polls on how Americans feel about Israel, Palestine and conflict in the Middle East.
1 month ago
2 months ago
Which way are key demographic groups leaning in the 2024 election?
Polling averages of Kamala Harris's and Donald Trump's support among Black, Hispanic, white, young, old, male, female, college-educated and non-college-educated voters.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election
538 does its third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Michigan, which is dependent on Black and Arab American voters.
2 months ago
2 months ago
How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?
The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
2 months ago
2 months ago
What early polls say about who won the VP debate
Americans are split over whether Sen. JD Vance or Gov. Tim Walz won Tuesday's vice presidential debate.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Why VP debates aren't all that important
Historically, VP debates haven't really moved the polls.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Pro-Israel groups spent big to oust two Squad members in primaries
Pro-Israel groups focused their spending on defeating two members of the Squad, and had a fairly strong showing in Democratic primary endorsements.
2 months ago