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June 28, 2024 at 7:52 PM

Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

Poll results from after the first 2024 presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
June 28, 2024 at 7:52 PM
Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election on June 27.
June 28, 2024 at 7:52 PM

Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate

New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.
June 28, 2024 at 7:52 PM
VIDEO: Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate
June 28, 2024 at 6:06 PM

Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?

Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
June 28, 2024 at 6:06 PM
VIDEO: Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?
June 28, 2024 at 5:31 PM

Who won the 1st presidential debate?

538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
June 28, 2024 at 5:31 PM
VIDEO: Who won the 1st presidential debate?
June 28, 2024 at 5:02 AM

Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

A new 538/Ipsos poll conducted before the debate shows where Biden and Trump stand.
June 28, 2024 at 5:02 AM
Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election on June 27.
June 28, 2024 at 4:54 AM

Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS

From the earliest moments of the night, President Joe Biden's biggest political weakness -- his age and perceived frailty -- became a clear liability on the debate stage.
June 28, 2024 at 4:54 AM
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden during a presidential debate hosted by CNN, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta.
June 26, 2024 at 9:36 PM

Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president

Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
June 26, 2024 at 9:36 PM
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
June 26, 2024 at 6:58 PM

Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think

Will the June 27 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden matter in the polls?
June 26, 2024 at 6:58 PM
Joe Biden, 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, right, and President Donald Trump speak during the U.S. presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, Oct. 22, 2020.
June 26, 2024 at 12:57 AM

All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday

Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
June 26, 2024 at 12:57 AM
Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
June 26, 2024 at 12:38 AM

Upcoming debate is different than other debates

The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
June 26, 2024 at 12:38 AM
The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
June 25, 2024 at 9:17 PM

How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?

The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
June 25, 2024 at 9:17 PM
The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
June 25, 2024 at 9:12 PM

What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate

President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
June 25, 2024 at 9:12 PM
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
June 25, 2024 at 2:56 PM

15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina

Tuesday's elections include notable U.S. House primary races in New York, Colorado and Utah.
June 25, 2024 at 2:56 PM
Rep. Jamaal Bowman speaks at a re-election rally at Maceachron Park on June 21, 2024 in Hastings-on-Hudson, New York.
June 21, 2024 at 12:15 AM

Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world? 

Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
June 21, 2024 at 12:15 AM
Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
June 20, 2024 at 11:57 PM

Do global election trends provide insight into the US election? 

Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 
June 20, 2024 at 11:57 PM
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 
June 20, 2024 at 10:11 PM

Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?

Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
June 20, 2024 at 10:11 PM
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
June 20, 2024 at 6:37 PM

Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. came up short of qualifying for the first general election debate.
June 20, 2024 at 6:37 PM
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to the media at a Cesar Chavez Day event at Union Station on March 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.
June 19, 2024 at 1:11 PM

It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.

Why Americans feel bad about the economy even though economic data is strong.
June 19, 2024 at 1:11 PM
High costs may partially explain Americans' dissatisfaction with the economy.
June 18, 2024 at 6:40 PM

A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about

538's polling column examines Americans' opinion on access to the abortion medication mifepristone, the economy and threats to democracy, Pride month and polling itself.
June 18, 2024 at 6:40 PM
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
June 18, 2024 at 2:55 PM

7 primaries to watch in Virginia and Oklahoma

Tuesday's elections include notable U.S. House primary races in Virginia and Oklahoma.
June 18, 2024 at 2:55 PM
VA-05 candidates Rep. Bob Good and state Sen. John McGuire
June 13, 2024 at 3:01 PM

Biden, Trump virtually tied in 538 poll

Former President Donald Trump has a slight edge over President Joe Biden.
June 13, 2024 at 3:01 PM
VIDEO: Biden, Trump virtually tied in 538 poll
June 12, 2024 at 6:46 PM

Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election

It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
June 12, 2024 at 6:46 PM
President Joe Biden stands with his son Hunter Biden, who earlier in the day was found guilty on all three counts in his criminal gun charges trial, after President Biden arrived at the Delaware Air National Guard Base in New Castle, Del., June 11, 2024.
June 11, 2024 at 12:55 PM

Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

Announcing 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model.
June 11, 2024 at 12:55 PM
Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast.
June 7, 2024 at 8:25 PM

Abortion-rights ballot measures are leading in the polls

What the polls say about 2024 abortion-rights ballot measures in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and South Dakota.
June 7, 2024 at 8:25 PM
Several abortion-rights ballot measures are on the ballot this year.
1 month ago

Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early

National polling conducted immediately after Trump's guilty verdict reflects a slight swing toward Biden.
1 month ago
Former President Donald Trump, flanked by attorneys Todd Blanche and Emil Bove, arrives for his criminal trial at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York, NY on  May 29, 2024.
1 month ago

How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction

538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
1 month ago
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
1 month ago

Republicans are ramping up election fraud claims ahead of November

Republicans continue to embrace election denialism by pushing efforts to ban noncitizens from voting (which is already illegal).
1 month ago
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson speaks during a news conference on the steps of the U.S. Capitol introducing the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, to require proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections, May 8, 2024, in Washington.
1 month ago

What to know about the UK’s July general election

With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
1 month ago
With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
1 month ago

Will Nikki Haley supporters vote for Trump?

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
1 month ago
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
1 month ago

How will Trump's hush money trial impact the 2024 election?

Will the outcome of Trump's hush money trial matter to voters in November?
1 month ago
Welcome to 538's latest politics chat.
1 month ago

Senate Democrats are polling well. That could help Biden.

Senate Democrats are polling better than President Joe Biden. What does that mean for 2024?
1 month ago
President Joe Biden walks toward Air Force One at Andrews Air Force Base, Md., Oct. 20, 2021, with Sen. Bob Casey.
1 month ago

Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.

Nikki Haley has endorsed Donald Trump, but which Haley primary voters will break with the Republican Party in the 2024 general election?
1 month ago
Will Nikki Haley's supporters back Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the 2024 general election?
1 month ago

It doesn’t matter which candidate you’d rather have a beer with

In the third episode of our mini-series "Campaign Throwback," we explore whether Americans really choose their presidents based on personal relatability.
1 month ago
Welcome to the third episode of our miniseries "Campaign Throwback,"
1 month ago

6 elections to watch in Georgia, Oregon and Idaho

538 previews the May 21 primaries in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky.
1 month ago
Candidates running in the Democratic primary for Oregon's 5th Congressional District, attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner (left) and Oregon state Rep. Janelle Bynum.
1 month ago

Democracy is a top concern for many voters. We asked them why.

538 partnered with PerryUndem to conduct focus groups with undecided swing-state voters and delve deeper into how they're thinking about the state of our democracy.
1 month ago
In this Jan. 6, 2021, file photo, an image of President Donald Trump appears on video screens before his speech to supporters from the Ellipse at the White House in Washington, D.C., as the Congress prepares to certify the electoral college votes.
1 month ago

Biden’s path to winning the Electoral College runs through the Midwest

Polls suggest Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be pivotal states for Biden's chances of winning the Electoral College.
1 month ago
President Joe Biden speaks to guests at the Pieper-Hillside Boys and Girls Club Mar. 13, 2024, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
1 month ago

Are 'soccer moms' actually swing voters?

In the second episode of our miniseries "Campaign Throwback," we get to the bottom of how suburban women became a political obsession.
1 month ago
Welcome to the second episode of our podcast miniseries "Campaign Throwback."
2 months ago

Maryland's contentious Senate race  

The 538 crew dive into Tuesday's Democratic primary election in Maryland.
2 months ago
The 538 crew dive into Tuesday's Democratic primary election in Maryland.
2 months ago

10 primaries to watch in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia

538 breaks down the key primaries in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia.
2 months ago
Rep. David Trone and Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks participate in a Senate Democratic primary forum in Baltimore, Md., April 19, 2024.
2 months ago

Consolidating the Democratic base

538 Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich discusses what can be done to consolidate the Democratic vote behind President Joe Biden.
2 months ago
538 Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich discusses what can be done to consolidate the Democratic vote behind President Joe Biden.
2 months ago

Biden still trails Trump in various polls

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks why the end of the primaries, weeks of Biden campaigning and millions spent on advertising have changed the polls so little.
2 months ago
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks why the end of the primaries, weeks of Biden campaigning and millions spent on advertising have changed the polls so little.
2 months ago

What are the odds Democrats will win the popular vote?

The 538 crew plays a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold” and puts their wisdom to the test.
2 months ago
VIDEO: What are the odds Democrats will win the popular vote?
2 months ago

What are the odds of a Trump win this November?

The betting markets place the likelihood of Trump winning the 2024 election at 47% — but does 538 agree?
2 months ago
VIDEO: What are the odds of a Trump win this November?
2 months ago

Could we see a Biden-Trump debate?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold” and look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of certain events this election season.
2 months ago
VIDEO: Could we see a Biden-Trump debate?
2 months ago

Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up

As a rural dog owner, I know Kristi Noem's story is far from normal.
2 months ago
Governor of South Dakota Kristi Noem delivers remarks as she attends the 2024 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center in Maryland, February 23, 2024.
2 months ago

5 primaries to watch in Indiana

In the Indiana primaries, it's the establishment GOP versus the tea party in multiple House seats.
2 months ago
Rep. Victoria Spartz speaks during a Northern Hamilton County GOP Meeting, Apr. 22, 2024, in Sheridan, Ind.
2 months ago

Young people disapprove of Biden’s Israel policy. It may not mean much for November.

Despite campus protests over Israel's war with Hamas, polls find that young people rank other issues, like the economy, as much more important to their vote in November.
2 months ago
Students march and rally on Columbia University campus in support of a protest encampment supporting Palestinians, despite a 2pm deadline issued by university officials to disband or face suspension, during the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in New York City, April 29, 2024.
2 months ago

House members seem to really hate their jobs

U.S. representatives are increasingly cutting their congressional careers off early.
2 months ago
Rep. Mike Gallagher is seen outside a House Republican Conference speaker election meeting in Longworth Building on Oct. 24, 2023.
2 months ago

Voters don't like Biden's economy — but why?

Voters aren't happy with Biden's handling of the economy, but can't really explain why.
2 months ago
President Joe Biden applauds at the conclusion of the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner, April 27, 2024, in Washington. D.C.
2 months ago

538 algorithm groups House members by how they actually vote

538 researcher and editor Cooper Burton joins the podcast to break down a new algorithm built to cluster House members into “quiet caucuses” based on their voting trends.
2 months ago
VIDEO: 538 algorithm groups House members by how they actually vote