538's 2024 presidential election forecast shows a very close, toss-up race, with Trump taking a small lead.

Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

How education is impacting the 2024 election and what school choice ballot measures are on the ballot.

The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.

538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.

Hurricanes Helene and Milton may not change many voters' minds, but they could dampen turnout in the hardest-hit areas.

538 does its fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Georgia, which could swing back to the GOP in 2024.

Paid sick leave is on the ballot in Alaska, Nebraska, and Missouri in the 2024 election.

Campaign visits probably won't make a difference in the 2024 presidential election.

Five states redrew their district lines and the changes could impact who wins the House in the 2024 election.

The methodology of 538's 2024 House of Representatives forecast model.

Introducing 538's forecast for U.S. House of Representatives races in 2024.

A year after October 7, 2023, 538 looks at polls on how Americans feel about Israel, Palestine and conflict in the Middle East.

Polling averages of Kamala Harris's and Donald Trump's support among Black, Hispanic, white, young, old, male, female, college-educated and non-college-educated voters.

538 does its third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Michigan, which is dependent on Black and Arab American voters.

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.

The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Americans are split over whether Sen. JD Vance or Gov. Tim Walz won Tuesday's vice presidential debate.

Historically, VP debates haven't really moved the polls.

Pro-Israel groups focused their spending on defeating two members of the Squad, and had a fairly strong showing in Democratic primary endorsements.

Progressive candidates won most of the open primary races they ran in for U.S. Senate, House and governor in 2024.

538’s Galen Druke discusses where Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are leading in the 20204 presidential election.

538's second deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states in the 2024 presidential election.

GOP efforts to recruit and support female candidates in primaries stalled this year, while Democratic women could expand their ranks after a strong showing.

The latest 538 forecast of the 2024 presidential election has Harris and Trump essentially tied.

How 538 decides which polls to include in its aggregation and models.

538 has released U.S. Senate polling averages for the 2024 general election.

538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting block.

538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris' approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.

University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss data on "linked fate" across interracial voters and voters of different political ideologies.

What are Kamala Harris's views on Israel, and will pro-Palestinian "uncommitted" voters prefer her over Joe Biden?

538's first deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states in the 2024 presidential election, plus a look at the Robinson-Stein governor's race.

What the 538 election forecast says after the Harris-Trump presidential debate.

Not all political polls are created equal. Here's 538's guide to interpreting them.

Taylor Swift’s fans largely lean Democratic, but her support of Kamala Harris could boost engagement.

Heading into the debate, Americans have higher expectations of Kamala Harris, but favor Donald Trump on key issues.

538 breaks down six high-profile primaries for the U.S. House and governor in New Hampshire and Delaware.

538 political podcast host Galen Druke joins the show to discuss the polling numbers showing that Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump.

538's "what-if" interactive lets you pick the winner of each state and see how it would shift the range of outcomes in our 2024 presidential election forecast.

Will there be long lines at the polls and voter confusion over new voting laws in the 2024 election?

We clear up some confusion over ActiVote, a prolific pollster with unique methods.

538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.

Test your knowledge of public opinion on Democratic nominee Kamala Harris's policy positions.

The Democrats' Biden-Harris switch shows that the strong political party may be making a comeback.

Why Washington’s primary suggests House Democrats could gain nationally but lose a seat locally.

Former President Donald Trump got a small boost after the RNC, but Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy has reset the race.

At the DNC, Democrats played to their party's strengths on issues like abortion rights, health care and protecting democracy.

Why racist attacks from Donald Trump probably won't hurt Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich speaks with three young voters from Chicago as the 2024 Democratic National Convention takes place.

While most viewers are partisans, party conventions help energize the party bases, which are key to success in November.