538
Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
July 26, 2024 at 4:35 PM

Quiz: How well do you know the top dogs of politics?

Take a break from the horse race and match these dogs to their political owners.
July 26, 2024 at 4:35 PM
Dogs and politicians have a long and storied history.
July 26, 2024 at 2:35 PM

What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table

Breaking down eight possible candidates for Kamala Harris's VP pick.
July 26, 2024 at 2:35 PM
Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear and Roy Cooper are on the list of potential Democratic vice presidential picks.
July 23, 2024 at 8:52 PM

Is Kamala Harris the presumptive Democratic nominee? Not quite.

Now that Joe Biden has dropped out, what happens next for Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party?
July 23, 2024 at 8:52 PM
Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at her campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, on July 22, 2024.
July 22, 2024 at 9:52 PM

What do the polls say about a Harris vs. Trump matchup?

While Harris consistently polled worse than Biden did against Trump before the debate, she’s since fared the same or better in close to half of the post-debate polls.
July 22, 2024 at 9:52 PM
Limited polls have tested Kamala Harris against Donald Trump in a general-election matchup.
July 19, 2024 at 12:49 PM

This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don't trust either party to fix it.

The 2024 presidential election in Duval County, Florida, could be decided by inflation and housing costs.
July 19, 2024 at 12:49 PM
Jacksonville has experienced some of the steepest increases in cost of living in the country since the pandemic.
July 18, 2024 at 7:52 PM

What you might've missed at the RNC

Who spoke at the Republican National Convention (RNC) and what it means for the 2024 election.
July 18, 2024 at 7:52 PM
SlackChat Kaleigh Rogers
July 18, 2024 at 2:40 AM

What is a convention delegate?

FiveThirtyEight's Galen Druke sits down with ABC News reporter Will Ganns to breakdown the complicated question around party conventions: why are delegates a thing?
July 18, 2024 at 2:40 AM
FiveThirtyEight's Galen Druke sits down with ABC News reporter Will Ganns to breakdown the complicated question around party conventions: why are delegates a thing?
July 17, 2024 at 6:39 PM

Will the RNC give Trump a polling bounce?

538 looks at the history of convention bounces in the polls, and why a Trump bounce after the 2024 RNC may be complicated by the recent shooting and other events.
July 17, 2024 at 6:39 PM
"Trump" campaign signs inside the Fiserv Forum ahead of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 15, 2024.
July 17, 2024 at 2:57 PM

Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.

Nikki Haley has endorsed Donald Trump, but which Haley primary voters will break with the Republican Party in the 2024 general election?
July 17, 2024 at 2:57 PM
Will Nikki Haley's supporters back Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the 2024 general election?
July 15, 2024 at 7:19 PM

What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028

Why Trump's vice presidential pick might not matter as much as you think.
July 15, 2024 at 7:19 PM
The three front-runners to be Trump’s VP are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sens. Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance.
July 15, 2024 at 7:17 PM

Welcome to Milwaukee

The 2024 Republican National Convention is underway. Here’s why the Republican Party chose Milwaukee as the host city.
July 15, 2024 at 7:17 PM
The 2024 Republican National Convention is underway. Here’s why the Republican Party chose Milwaukee as the host city.
July 12, 2024 at 2:34 PM

Americans were worried about Biden's age long before the debate

Polls say Americans think Joe Biden is too old to be president.
July 12, 2024 at 2:34 PM
President Joe Biden speaks to supporters during a campaign rally at Sherman Middle School, July 5, 2024, in Madison, Wisconsin.
July 11, 2024 at 8:55 PM

4 reasons to beware of post-debate polling takes

This soon after the debate, with relatively little robust polling, there are early indications that President Joe Biden has lost ground, but it's hard to say much more.
July 11, 2024 at 8:55 PM
It takes time to gauge how campaign developments may have affected the polls.
July 10, 2024 at 7:13 PM

What the Democrats doubting Biden have in common

At first, there may not seem to be a pattern in who is calling on Biden to step down and who's supporting him. But a closer look reveals there are some similarities.
July 10, 2024 at 7:13 PM
President Joe Biden listens as Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump speaks during their debate in Atlanta, GA, June 27, 2024.
July 10, 2024 at 4:33 PM

Why 538's forecast hasn't moved much post-debate

Why 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model is still a toss-up after the debate.
July 10, 2024 at 4:33 PM
"An election update for July 9, 2024.
July 9, 2024 at 10:03 PM

Can Biden recover from the debate?

Avoiding public appearances and minimizing camera time isn’t a scandal, but it doesn’t bode well.
July 9, 2024 at 10:03 PM
Can Biden recover from the debate?
July 9, 2024 at 9:18 PM

What do Democrats really think about Biden continuing to run?

Voters are more concerned about his age than a few years ago, polls show.
July 9, 2024 at 9:18 PM
What do Democrats really think about Biden continuing to run?
July 9, 2024 at 9:05 PM

Why Biden will probably stay in the race despite Democratic dissent

538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to shed light on similarities between Biden today and Trump in 2016.
July 9, 2024 at 9:05 PM
Why Trump will probably stay in the race despite Republican dissent
July 8, 2024 at 2:29 PM

Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term

The Supreme Court tends to release unpopular opinions later in its term.
July 8, 2024 at 2:29 PM
The Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions later in its term.
July 3, 2024 at 4:06 PM

Voters are mad as hell in the UK and France

How the United Kingdom and France elections work and who will win.
July 3, 2024 at 4:06 PM
The U.S., U.K. and France are all holding major elections in 2024.
July 3, 2024 at 3:14 AM

538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence

Despite Justice Barrett siding with the majority on the presidential immunity case, she dissented on a section of the ruling. 538 has more.
July 3, 2024 at 3:14 AM
538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence
July 3, 2024 at 12:15 AM

SCOTUS ruled on presidential immunity. What does that mean for Trump?

It's very unlikely Trump will stand trial before the 2024 presidential election: 538
July 3, 2024 at 12:15 AM
Win McNamee/Getty Images
July 2, 2024 at 7:07 PM

What the polls say after the first presidential debate

Trump looks to have gained at least some ground, but how much the polls end up moving remains to be seen.
July 2, 2024 at 7:07 PM
Trump gained slightly in national polls in the days after the first presidential debate.
1 month ago

Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

Poll results from after the first 2024 presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
1 month ago
Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election on June 27.
1 month ago

Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate

New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.
1 month ago
VIDEO: Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate
1 month ago

Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?

Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
1 month ago
VIDEO: Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?
1 month ago

Who won the 1st presidential debate?

538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
1 month ago
VIDEO: Who won the 1st presidential debate?
1 month ago

Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

A new 538/Ipsos poll conducted before the debate shows where Biden and Trump stand.
1 month ago
Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election on June 27.
1 month ago

Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS

From the earliest moments of the night, President Joe Biden's biggest political weakness -- his age and perceived frailty -- became a clear liability on the debate stage.
1 month ago
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden during a presidential debate hosted by CNN, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta.
1 month ago

Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president

Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
1 month ago
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
1 month ago

Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think

Will the June 27 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden matter in the polls?
1 month ago
Joe Biden, 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, right, and President Donald Trump speak during the U.S. presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, Oct. 22, 2020.
1 month ago

All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday

Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
1 month ago
Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
1 month ago

Upcoming debate is different than other debates

The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
1 month ago
The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
1 month ago

How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?

The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
1 month ago
The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
1 month ago

What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate

President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
1 month ago
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
1 month ago

15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina

Tuesday's elections include notable U.S. House primary races in New York, Colorado and Utah.
1 month ago
Rep. Jamaal Bowman speaks at a re-election rally at Maceachron Park on June 21, 2024 in Hastings-on-Hudson, New York.
1 month ago

Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world? 

Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
1 month ago
Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
1 month ago

Do global election trends provide insight into the US election? 

Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 
1 month ago
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 
1 month ago

Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?

Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
1 month ago
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
1 month ago

Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. came up short of qualifying for the first general election debate.
1 month ago
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to the media at a Cesar Chavez Day event at Union Station on March 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.
1 month ago

It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.

Why Americans feel bad about the economy even though economic data is strong.
1 month ago
High costs may partially explain Americans' dissatisfaction with the economy.
1 month ago

A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about

538's polling column examines Americans' opinion on access to the abortion medication mifepristone, the economy and threats to democracy, Pride month and polling itself.
1 month ago
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
1 month ago

7 primaries to watch in Virginia and Oklahoma

Tuesday's elections include notable U.S. House primary races in Virginia and Oklahoma.
1 month ago
VA-05 candidates Rep. Bob Good and state Sen. John McGuire
1 month ago

Biden, Trump virtually tied in 538 poll

Former President Donald Trump has a slight edge over President Joe Biden.
1 month ago
VIDEO: Biden, Trump virtually tied in 538 poll
1 month ago

Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election

It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
1 month ago
President Joe Biden stands with his son Hunter Biden, who earlier in the day was found guilty on all three counts in his criminal gun charges trial, after President Biden arrived at the Delaware Air National Guard Base in New Castle, Del., June 11, 2024.
2 months ago

Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

Announcing 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model.
2 months ago
Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast.
2 months ago

Abortion-rights ballot measures are leading in the polls

What the polls say about 2024 abortion-rights ballot measures in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and South Dakota.
2 months ago
Several abortion-rights ballot measures are on the ballot this year.
2 months ago

Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early

National polling conducted immediately after Trump's guilty verdict reflects a slight swing toward Biden.
2 months ago
Former President Donald Trump, flanked by attorneys Todd Blanche and Emil Bove, arrives for his criminal trial at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York, NY on  May 29, 2024.
2 months ago

How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction

538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
2 months ago
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
2 months ago

Republicans are ramping up election fraud claims ahead of November

Republicans continue to embrace election denialism by pushing efforts to ban noncitizens from voting (which is already illegal).
2 months ago
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson speaks during a news conference on the steps of the U.S. Capitol introducing the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, to require proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections, May 8, 2024, in Washington.