Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
2 hours ago
Why George Santos was too toxic for the House GOP
George Santos's 23 federal indictments proved toxic enough for many House Republicans to set aside due process concerns and vote to expel.
2 hours ago
December 1, 2023, 6:48 PM
2024 is the 1st ‘AI Election.’ What does that mean? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Galen Druke speaks with Ethan Bueno de Mesquita about his white paper, "Preparing for Generative AI in the 2024 Election: Recommendations and Best Practices Based on Academic Research."
December 1, 2023, 6:48 PM
December 1, 2023, 5:26 PM
Why is Biden losing support from people of color?
While white Americans have been lukewarm about Biden for most of his administration, the president has been losing support among Black, Hispanic and Asian Americans.
December 1, 2023, 5:26 PM
November 28, 2023, 6:33 AM
Why the GOP may be ready to say goodbye to Santos| FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew discuss how likely Rep. George Santos is to be expelled from Congress.
November 28, 2023, 6:33 AM
November 27, 2023, 11:05 PM
538's polls policy and FAQs
How 538 decides which polls to include in its aggregation and models.
November 27, 2023, 11:05 PM
November 22, 2023, 4:27 PM
Why Biden should be thankful it's not 2024 yet
What do President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump and other politicians have to be thankful for this week?
November 22, 2023, 4:27 PM
November 20, 2023, 3:41 PM
The Utah 2nd District special election could be closer than you think
In all likelihood, Republican Celeste Maloy will succeed her former boss in Congress — but it wouldn’t be surprising if this special election was closer than expected.
November 20, 2023, 3:41 PM
November 17, 2023, 3:07 PM
The Squad's views on Israel could bolster primary opposition in 2024
The war between Israel and Hamas has not only shifted the American political landscape, but it's also paved the way for some bitter Democratic primary fights in 2024.
November 17, 2023, 3:07 PM
November 16, 2023, 3:54 PM
What the 2023 elections can — and can't — tell us about 2024
Off-year election results aren’t the best predictor of future elections. As a result, it’s not clear what, if anything, we learned about 2024 from last week's elections.
November 16, 2023, 3:54 PM
November 15, 2023, 4:08 PM
Who might Trump pick as his vice president?
In the 538 politics chat, we break down the race to become former President Donald Trump's VP pick.
November 15, 2023, 4:08 PM
November 14, 2023, 5:04 PM
Why Tim Scott's presidential campaign failed
On Sunday, Sen. Tim Scott dropped out of the race for president. It was an anti-climactic end for a campaign that, on paper, looked like it had a lot of potential.
November 14, 2023, 5:04 PM
November 14, 2023, 3:24 PM
Will the Maine shooting change public opinion on guns?
Polling says most Americans want stricter gun laws but don't think they'll get them.
November 14, 2023, 3:24 PM
November 10, 2023, 5:21 PM
Joe Manchin was a unicorn. Now he's retiring.
Republicans were already in a good position to flip the Senate in 2024 before Manchin’s announcement. But his retirement strengthens their odds even further.
November 10, 2023, 5:21 PM
November 8, 2023, 12:46 PM
538 analysis of Election Day 2023
ABC News’ Linsey Davis spoke with host and producer of “FiveThirtyEight Politics,” Galen Druke, about Americans casting their votes in local elections and the impact on the 2024 Presidential Election.
November 8, 2023, 12:46 PM
November 7, 2023, 8:22 PM
Where does the 2024 election stand one year out?
Who is ahead in the 2024 presidential election, Biden or Trump?
November 7, 2023, 8:22 PM
November 7, 2023, 3:08 PM
The biggest races to watch on Election Day 2023
Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia and dozens of other states are heading to the polls.
November 7, 2023, 3:08 PM
1 month ago
The third Republican debate stage will be less crowded
538 looks at who has and hasn't qualified so far for the third Republican presidential debate in Miami.
1 month ago
1 month ago
2023 elections to watch: Kentucky governor
Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is popular, but Kentucky is a red state.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Adam Kinzinger muses: ‘I would love to run against Ted Cruz'
The former congressman and recent Texas transplant explains why he's not done with politics just yet.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Adam Kinzinger muses: 'I would love to run against Ted Cruz'
Former U.S. Rep Adam Kinzinger joins the 538 politics podcast to talk about the GOP and his future plans in politics.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why it doesn't matter that Mike Pence dropped out of the GOP primary
538 looks at why Mike Pence's departure from the GOP primary field isn't likely to change the state of the race.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Virginia's legislative contests may be the most important races in 2023
Virginia's legislative elections might be the most important races in 2023.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Abortion rights are on the ballot in Ohio this Election Day
538's analysis of Ohio Issue 1, the ballot measure to protect abortion rights in the state constitution.
1 month ago
1 month ago
What Americans think about the war in Israel-Gaza
What polls say about Americans' support of Israel and President Biden’s handling of the crisis.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Voters under 30 are trending left of the general electorate
Young voters are trending left on key policy issues and could transform national politics in 2024 and beyond -- if they bother to show up at the ballot box.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How misinformation amplifies the Israel-Hamas conflict
Ian Bremmer from the Eurasia Group reveals how misinformation increases tensions in Gaza.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Our first-ever House speaker draft | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew looks at who will take control after 20 days of a speaker-less House.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Young voters could have a big impact in 2024, study says
Americans under 30 hold more liberal views than the general electorate across a range of policy issues.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How House Republicans failed to elect a speaker
Intraparty strife and a slim GOP majority have led to an impasse in the House speaker race.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoil the election for Biden — or Trump?
538's analysis of whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could siphon off more votes from Biden or Trump, or whether his candidacy will affect the final results at all.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How Americans feel about the war in Israel | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew looks at the latest polling on how Americans are reacting to the ongoing war in Gaza.
1 month ago
2 months ago
Will Jim Jordan or Steve Scalise — or even Kevin McCarthy — be the next speaker of the House?
Who might win the election for speaker of the House, Steve Scalise or Jim Jordan?
2 months ago
2 months ago
538 has new state-level Republican primary polling averages
Trump leads in the early states, but Haley shows signs of strength.
2 months ago
2 months ago
The Supreme Court starts its new term with dismal approval ratings
At the start of its new term, the Supreme Court remains extremely unpopular with the American public.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Would Trump pick a vice president from his primary opponents?
Will Donald Trump choose one of his primary opponents to be his running mate or vice president?
2 months ago
2 months ago
How outlier polls happen — and what to do with them
The ABC News/Washington Post poll of Biden and Trump is an outlier. How do outlier polls happen and how should we interpret/look at/treat them?
2 months ago
2 months ago
The biggest differences between Republican primary voters and the general electorate
We look at some key demographics and beliefs in the Cooperative Election Study.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Seven Republicans appear to have made the second debate
Seven Republican candidates appear to have qualified for the party's second primary debate.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Trump is weaker among independents than Republicans in primary polls
Independents don’t support former President Donald Trump as much as Republicans in GOP primary polls.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Democrats have been winning big in special elections
Democrats have been doing really well in special elections, a trend that could be a harbinger of a very good year for them in 2024.
2 months ago