Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?

New York redistricting is … complicated. If the state’s map is redrawn, it could be the most consequential redistricting action of the 2024 cycle and could endanger the reelections of several Republican representatives.

New York’s current congressional map was drawn by a special master after a state court struck down the Democratic legislature’s preferred map, which was severely biased toward Democrats. Democrats filed a lawsuit against the replacement map, arguing that it should only be temporary and that the state’s advisory redistricting commission should be entitled to take another crack at drawing the map. What they don’t mention is that, if the commission fails to pass a map, the Democratic legislature would once again step in and draw one instead — likely another gerrymander.

In July, a state court ruled that the commission should indeed redraw the map, but Republicans quickly appealed the decision. The New York Court of Appeals will hear the case in November. Although that’s the same court that threw out the Democratic gerrymander just last year, the author and swing vote in that 4-3 decision is no longer on the bench.

North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature looks ready to draw lines for a new congressional map this month in the latest twist in the state’s long history of sharp-elbowed partisan battles over redistricting. Prior to the 2022 election, the GOP-led legislature passed two different maps that would’ve been highly favorable to Republicans, but in each case state courts threw out the maps as partisan gerrymanders. The state ended up with a court-drawn map that would only be in effect for the 2022 election, which resulted in a 7-7 split in the state’s congressional delegation.

But in the 2022 election, Republicans won a 5-2 majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court, which undid the Democrats’ narrow advantage and significantly altered the state’s legal environment for redistricting. In April, the state Supreme Court overturned a 2022 ruling made by the previous panel that said partisan gerrymandering violated the state constitution, opening the door for the legislature to draw an advantageous map for Republicans. Under state law, the governor has no veto power over redistricting measures, so Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper cannot interfere in the GOP-led legislature’s line drawing. If the legislature’s initial mapmaking effort in 2021 is any indication, we can expect Republicans to shoot for a map on which the party stands a good chance of winning at least 10 seats.

Ohio’s 2024 map is set, and it will be the same congressional district map as 2022. But the path Ohio took to this outcome was anything but straightforward. In November 2021, the Republican-controlled state government enacted a map where the GOP might have won as many as 13 of the state’s 15 districts. But in January 2022, the Ohio Supreme Court struck down the map as a partisan gerrymander, placing the map in the hands of the Ohio Redistricting Commission. With a 5-2 edge on the board, Republicans passed a second map in March 2022 that still gave the GOP a good chance of capturing at least 10 districts, if not more. Although the state’s high court ruled that this map was also unconstitutional in July 2022, by then the timeline for the case left the second map in place for the 2022 elections, in which Republicans won 10 of the state’s House seats.

The same map will now be used in 2024, too, after the Ohio Supreme Court dismissed legal challenges to the map in September. The plaintiffs who opposed the map had themselves sought a dismissal because they were less likely to have success before the state’s high court after the 2022 midterms, when Republicans captured a firmer majority with the retirement of Republican Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor, who’d ruled against the state’s maps. If the mapmaking process had reopened for 2024, Republicans may have drawn lines even more favorable to the GOP. Under Ohio law, a map passed without bipartisan support can only remain in effect for two election cycles instead of a full decade, so because no Democrats supported the map currently in use, it will remain in effect through the 2024 election and then need to be redrawn before the 2026 election.

Before then, however, the state’s redistricting process could change due to a citizen-initiated constitutional amendment that proponents aim to put on the November 2024 ballot. The proposal would implement a 15-member commission made up of Republicans, Democrats and independents, with bans against the participation of recent officeholders, lobbyists or party officials. The amendment also includes measures against partisan gerrymandering.

Litigation over racial gerrymandering claims could result in South Carolina having to redraw part of its congressional map, which the GOP-controlled state government implemented in early 2022. Civil rights groups sued over the lines, arguing that the 1st, 2nd and 5th congressional districts constituted racial gerrymanders intended to discriminate against Black voters. In January, a panel of federal judges rejected the plaintiff’s claims regarding the 2nd and 5th districts, but struck down the 1st District as a racial gerrymander. The court ruled that in redrawing the seat, which had been competitive under the old lines, Republican mapmakers had impermissibly reduced the influence of Black voters in the Charleston area by moving many into the plurality-Black 6th District, which runs from Columbia to Charleston.

Whether this legal challenge will force the state to adjust its districts remains to be seen, however. In May, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case, and oral arguments will start in mid-October. One potential wrinkle is the role of Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn, a longtime powerbroker on Capitol Hill and leader in his state party. A ProPublica investigation found that Clyburn’s team had close contact with GOP officials during redistricting, and that his desire for additional Black voters to be added to his 6th District seat, which had lost substantial population over the past decade, potentially played a role in some of Republican mapping decisions.