Welcome
It’s time again for another Republican presidential debate — with another conspicuous absence and a slightly smaller stage.
Tonight’s debate will feature seven candidates, down from eight last month. Former President Donald Trump, who has a 41-percentage-point lead in 538’s national polling average, will again not be among them, as he has decided to skip at least the first two debates. Instead, we will hear from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy; former Vice President Mike Pence; South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott; former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley; former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.
Ramaswamy, DeSantis and Haley impressed Republican debate watchers last month, but within weeks, it became apparent that the debate did not significantly change the contours of the race. So this go-around, we’ll be watching to see whether any candidate takes a different approach to Trump (or the lack thereof) on the stage tonight. How will candidates make the case that they are the best alternative to Trump without having him there as a direct contrast? What issues will they try to differentiate themselves on?
The debate begins at 9 p.m. Eastern on Fox Business, but you’ll be hearing here from the crew at 538 and contributors from ABC News and PolitiFact throughout the night. Leading up to the debate, we’ll run through the state of the race so far. Once the event starts, we’ll make sure we’re addressing everything happening on stage, including what issues the candidates talk about, whom they attack, how they position themselves and what Americans think. Thanks for joining us.
—Analysis by Maya Sweedler of 538
