Republican debate highlights and analysis: Candidates squabble in Simi Valley

We at 538 have been tracking how many days each candidate has spent campaigning in each state. And some interesting patterns have emerged:
Some candidates — like Ramaswamy and Haley — have really focused on retail politics, while others — like Trump and Scott — have held relatively few campaign events. (Perhaps their strategy is more reliant on TV ads.)>
Hutchinson, DeSantis and Pence have focused their campaigning on Iowa, whose culturally conservative and religious GOP electorate may be a good fit for their politics. By contrast, Christie and Hurd have focused their efforts on New Hampshire, whose large population of independent voters may be more receptive to their anti-Trump message.
The candidates are largely ignoring Nevada, even though it’s the third state on the primary calendar. Through Tuesday, the 10 major candidates have spent a total of 162 campaign days in Iowa and 124 in New Hampshire, but only four in Nevada!

—Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of 538

Trump maintains a lead of 32 percentage points over his nearest competitor in Iowa, according to the latest polls. Trump and Haley have both improved their polling by about 6 points since the August debate, while DeSantis’s numbers remain virtually unchanged.

According to an early September Emerson College poll, 79 percent of likely caucusgoers who say they plan to vote for Trump also say they are definitely going to vote for him. By contrast, voters who support other candidates say they might change their mind: Seventy-one percent of Scott supporters, 70 percent of Haley supporters, 56 percent of DeSantis supporters and 46 percent of Ramaswamy supporters indicated they could vote for a different candidate.

And in a September survey from Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research/Fox Business, 46 percent of likely Iowa caucusgoers list Trump as their first-choice candidate, but only 7 percent list Trump as their second choice. This may indicate that consolidation in the rest of the Republican field could significantly reduce Trump’s lead in the state, as few voters who aren’t already indicating support for Trump seem interested in voting for him.

—Analysis by 538

—Galen Druke of 538

The candidates who are not on the debate stage tonight are still trying to make their case to voters, but face the challenge of being out of the almost-literal spotlight tonight. Some are also starting to be more candid about their prospects.

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who is pitching himself as a moderate conservative alternative to Trump, is in the difficult position of having been onstage at last month’s debate – and then not qualifying for tonight’s event.

Instead of trekking to California, Hutchinson spoke in Detroit this morning, not far from where Trump, who’s off the debate stage by choice, is holding a rally tonight. "I'm here, in Detroit, because I want to debate. Donald Trump is here in Detroit tonight because he wants to avoid a debate,” Hutchinson said at the presser.

Media attention is largely focused elsewhere today; only four cameras were at Hutchinson's event, according to ABC News campaign reporters Libby Cathey and Fritz Farrow.
Hutchinson wrote earlier this week that he is going to try to “increase my polling numbers to 4% in an early state before Thanksgiving,” setting a self-imposed benchmark for himself without directly saying whether he would withdraw or not if he doesn’t make it there.

He’s not the only one having a moment of campaign contemplation. Fellow offstage candidate and former Texas Rep. Will Hurd wrote today that he’ll continue campaigning, with a focus on New Hampshire, but that “our campaign is at an inflection point.” And last month, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez suspended his campaign about a week after the first debate aired. We’ll have to see if others follow in his footsteps after the dust settles from tonight, but it looks like Hutchinson and Hurd plan on staying in the game for now.

—Oren Oppenheim of ABC News