South Carolina, Nevada primaries and Ohio special election: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win

In the solidly red 4th District around Greenville, third-term Rep. William Timmons is another Republican incumbent dealing with a high-profile primary challenger. Though Timmons is a reliable conservative, state Rep. Adam Morgan could successfully run even further to Timmons's right, seeing as he chairs the state House's Freedom Caucus — modeled after the congressional caucus, whose membership encouraged Morgan's bid and whose campaign arm has endorsed him. Moreover, Timmons still seems to be plagued by a scandal that jeopardized his reelection bid two years ago: In 2022, amid allegations that Timmons was unfaithful to his wife, he only won renomination with 53 percent against weak primary opposition.

One sign that Timmons is feeling the heat is that he's done something unusual in a GOP primary: He's attacked his opponent for being too extreme on abortion rights, running an ad criticizing Morgan for voting "to jail rape and incest victims" who sought abortions — a vote Morgan has defended as "an attempt to close a loophole." Timmons's maneuver could be an attempt to draw Democratic and independent votes in South Carolina's open primary system, even though the incumbent supports a 15-week federal abortion ban.

Timmons still has some notable advantages working for him. He's outraised Morgan $1.9 million to $578,000, helped out by a $900,000 loan to his campaign (Morgan has self-funded nearly half his campaign, too). Outside groups, mainly the pro-cryptocurrency Defend American Jobs super PAC, have spent $1.9 million to boost Timmons, compared with just $327,000 in outside spending supporting Morgan. And here, too, Trump has endorsed the incumbent, which Timmons and his allies have played up in campaign ads. Still, Morgan has emphasized his Republican bona fides, pitching himself as a Christian and "conservative fighter" in his ads.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

As usual, tonight we'll be tracking candidates in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina House, Senate and gubernatorial primaries whose campaign websites use the phrase "pro-life," "sanctity of life," "right to life," "protect life," "no abortion," "against abortion" or "unborn" and do not say abortion is an issue of states' rights.

In Maine and Nevada, the right to abortion is relatively protected, with access legal until 24 weeks of pregnancy. In Nevada, that protection is currently guaranteed by state law, but a measure to add a fundamental right to abortion to the state constitution is awaiting final approval to be on the ballot this November.

Perhaps in tune with that trend, no candidates from Maine, and no leading candidates in competitive Nevada primaries, have leaned into pro-life messaging. Two of the 12 Republican primary candidates for Nevada Senate are on our list, but not the favorite, Brown, who has backing from national Republican leaders. It's similar in the state's 3rd Congressional District, where one of seven Republican challengers is on the list, but not among the leading contenders in the race. The only candidate here who's likely to win today is incumbent Rep. Mark Amodei in Nevada's 2nd District, who faces only a minor primary challenge.

The story is different in North Dakota and South Carolina, which have some of the most restrictive anti-abortion laws in the country. North Dakota bans most abortions with very few exceptions, and South Carolina bans abortions after 6 weeks of pregnancy. Neither state will see an initiative on the ballot this fall.

Twelve candidates across six congressional districts in South Carolina are anti-abortion, including six in the crowded 3rd District race. In North Dakota, gubernatorial candidate Kelly Armstrong is the front-runner of two candidates running for the Republican nomination, and incumbent Sen. Kevin Cramer faces no challenger. The leading two of the five Republican primary candidates for the state's at-large congressional district are also on our list.

—Monica Potts, 538

The most-watched South Carolina race is in the 1st District, where second-term Republican Rep. Nancy Mace is defending her Lowcountry-based seat against a primary challenge from former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton. Mace sparked anger among some in the GOP last fall after she joined with seven other Republican House members to back the motion to vacate that ousted then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The move fit into her idiosyncratic track record as a onetime-ally of the old school GOP establishment who has evolved into an anti-establishment, Trump-minded conservative.

In fact, former President Donald Trump has endorsed her, a development Mace and her allies, such as Club for Growth Action, have emphasized in campaign ads. This reflects the incumbent's shifting positions, especially considering Trump endorsed Mace's primary challenger in 2022, whom Mace narrowly defeated. For her part, Templeton previously served in then-Gov. Nikki Haley's cabinet before mounting a failed gubernatorial bid in 2018. And while Mace has substantially outraised Templeton — $2.3 million to $663,000 as of May 22 — Templeton has received ample outside support. Groups have spent $5.4 million backing Templeton or attacking Mace, according to OpenSecrets, compared with $2.6 million supporting Mace or criticizing Templeton.

Notably, some pro-Templeton money may have come from sources allied to McCarthy, and Mace has denounced Templeton as McCarthy's "puppet." The McCarthy-aligned American Prosperity Alliance is running ads against Mace, and reporting by the Charleston Post and Courier found that the brand-new South Carolina Patriots PAC — which has spent $3.8 million to boost Templeton — received a small amount of money from the APA. SCP has run ads that argue Mace is weak on border security, while Templeton has played up her conservative business and immigration bona fides.

Limited public polling suggests Mace is more likely than not to survive. An early May survey by Kaplan Strategies found Mace leading Templeton 43 percent to 21 percent, while a late May poll from Emerson College/The Hill put Mace ahead 47 percent to 22 percent. But there's a small chance that this race could go to a June 25 runoff, as a third Republican candidate could win enough votes to keep Mace or Templeton from winning a majority.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

The second-biggest news of today here at 538 — after these primaries, natch — was the launch of our 2024 presidential forecast model. Our podcast host Galen Druke sat down with Editorial Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris to talk about what goes into the model and what it says is the most likely outcome in November:

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538