South Carolina, Nevada primaries and Ohio special election: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win

Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: June 11, 2024, 5:25 PM EDT

June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.

In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.

Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Meredith Conroy Image
ByMeredith Conroy
Jun 11, 2024, 7:54 PM EDT

Will Republicans nominate a woman for governor of North Dakota?

As Geoffrey mentioned earlier, the Republican primary for governor in North Dakota between Rep. Kelly Armstrong and Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller has been combative. It could also be historic if Miller were to come out ahead. North Dakota is one of 18 states that has never had a female governor. Right now there are more women serving as governors than at any other time — just 12. Of those 12, only four are Republican — Govs. Noem of South Dakota, Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas, Ivey of Alabama and Reynolds of Iowa.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Kaleigh Rogers Image
ByKaleigh Rogers
Jun 11, 2024, 7:48 PM EDT

Speaking of campaign ads

Two of the races I’m watching tonight, the Republican primaries in South Carolina’s 3rd and 4th Districts, saw an advertising moment that made waves towards the end of last year. The incumbent representatives in both of those district — the 3rd’s Jeff Duncan and the 4th’s William Timmons -- each had scandals involving accusations of infidelity. In December, a radio spot pointing out the cheating scandals was funded by a conservative group, Restore Our Values, and was a real awkward moment as the campaigns heated up. Duncan actually decided not to seek reelection shortly afterward. Timmons, as Geoffrey detailed above, is still running but faces a competitive challenger in state Rep. Adam Morgan.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Jacob Rubashkin Image
ByJacob Rubashkin
Jun 11, 2024, 7:42 PM EDT

Mace jumps out to an early start

In South Carolina’s 1st District, the embattled Mace has jumped out to a lead with about 10 percent of the expected vote counted. She leads Templeton, 59 percent to 27 percent, according to the Associated Press. And remember, she needs to stay above 50 percent to avoid a runoff.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Jun 11, 2024, 7:30 PM EDT

Polls are closed in the Ohio special election

It's 7:30 p.m. Eastern, which means polls are now closed in Ohio. There are no primaries in the Buckeye State tonight, but there is a special election in the state's 6th District, which was represented by Republican Rep. Bill Johnson until January, when he resigned to lead Youngstown State University.

According to Daily Kos Elections, Ohio's 6th District voted for Trump 64 percent to 35 percent in 2020, so Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli should easily defeat Democratic Air Force veteran Michael Kripchak there today. However, we'll still be keeping an eye on Rulli's winning margin as an indicator of the national political mood. Special election performance over a partisan baseline has historically been a good predictor of general election outcomes.

That said, individual special elections can be idiosyncratic, so you really need to consider today's result in Ohio's 6th alongside the other special congressional elections we've had this cycle. So far, Democrats have overperformed the weighted partisan leans of the districts in those elections by an average of 4 percentage points. We'll see how much — or whether — Ohio's 6th moves that average.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

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