South Carolina, Nevada primaries and Ohio special election: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win

The AP now estimates that virtually all of the vote is counted in Ohio's 6th District, and the final-ish margin is Rulli 55 percent, Kripchak 45 percent. According to a weighted average of presidential results in this district, this is an R+32 district, which means Democrats overperformed here by a whopping 22 points.

Obviously, that's a very impressive performance by Democrats. However, one special election on its own doesn't necessarily mean anything. That said, the average of a party's overperformance in special elections for the cycle has historically been correlated with its performance in the subsequent general election, and that's good news for Democrats. On average this cycle, they have now overperformed in federal special elections by an average of 7 points — not Ohio 6th-level, but still quite solid.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

It's 10 p.m. Eastern, and polls are now closed in the Silver State, our last primary state of the evening. Nevada law says that the state can't report results until the last voter in line has voted, so we may not see results right away. (But once we do, it will likely be a big chunk of the final tally.)

—Tia Yang, 538

In another race mostly situated in the Las Vegas area, Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford will be defending the blue-leaning 4th District, and the two principal GOP contenders are retired Air Force Lt. Col. David Flippo and former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee. Flippo has raised $927,000 to Lee's $851,000 — both candidates have self-funded more than half of their totals — but Lee may have the upper hand here, thanks to endorsements from Trump and Lombardo. However, Lee is a former Democrat who switched parties ahead of a failed bid for the Republican nomination for governor against Lombardo in 2022, which could weaken his appeal among primary voters.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Nevada's 3rd District is a light-blue seat around Las Vegas held by three-term Democratic Rep. Susie Lee that will likely host the state's most competitive House race. The two most notable Republican contenders may be video game music composer Marty O'Donnell and former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz, although policy analyst and advocate Drew Johnson and former state Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien are also in the mix. O'Donnell has Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo's endorsement, and he'd raised $541,000 as of May 22 ($500,000 out of his own pocket). That was less than the $922,000 Schwartz had raised ($900,000 in self-funding). But on May 24, O'Donnell gave himself an additional $700,000, meaning he's likely outdistanced Schwartz's total. Meanwhile, Johnson has raised $432,000 ($300,000 self-funded) and Helgelien has raised $282,000.

Interestingly, O'Donnell has said he won't accept money from corporate political action committees, a line we more typically hear from Democrats. This may help explain why Johnson has called O'Donnell a "Seattle liberal." Meanwhile, Schwartz has cast himself as the candidate who will "drain the swamp," but his post-treasurer electoral track record isn't inspiring: He lost GOP primaries for governor in 2018, U.S. House in 2020 and lieutenant governor in 2022. Helgelien left the state legislature in 2012, but she does have endorsements from Trump acolytes like Roger Stone and hard-right Republican Reps. Paul Gosar of Arizona and Anna Paulina Luna of Florida.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538