South Carolina, Nevada primaries and Ohio special election: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win

Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: June 11, 2024, 5:25 PM EDT

June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.

In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.

Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Jun 11, 2024, 10:43 PM EDT

North Dakota’s Measure 1 seems doomed in court

Mary, you mentioned potential legal challenges for North Dakota’s ballot measure setting congressional age limits. It's pretty clearly unconstitutional under current Supreme Court precedent; the court found in 1995's U.S. Term Limits v. Thornton that states can't impose qualifications to run for office beyond those set forth in the Constitution. (And while the Constitution sets a minimum age to be elected to Congress, it's silent about a maximum.) However, congressional expert Matt Glassman writes on X that this ballot measure could be a way to get the Supreme Court to reconsider that precedent — which could open the door to congressional term limits as well.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Meredith Conroy Image
ByMeredith Conroy
Jun 11, 2024, 10:39 PM EDT

Fedorchak's projected win is a milestone for GOP women this cycle

With Fedorchak's projected win in North Dakota’s at-large district, she becomes the first non-incumbent Republican woman to win an open primary in a safe red district this cycle. Why have Republican women had such a slow start in primaries this year? We wrote about some possible explanations last week.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

ByMary Radcliffe
Jun 11, 2024, 10:36 PM EDT

North Dakota Congressional age limit measure is projected to pass

According to the AP, the Congressional age limit ballot measure in North Dakota is projected to pass. With 70 percent of the expected vote reported, support for the measure is at 61 percent. As I mentioned earlier, this makes North Dakota the first state in the nation to enact such a law, but it undoubtedly will face legal challenges in the coming years.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

ByMary Radcliffe
Jun 11, 2024, 10:34 PM EDT

Speaking of anti-abortion Republicans in South Carolina ...

I checked back in on the three "sister senators" in the state Senate I mentioned earlier, who banded together to successfully filibuster against a near-total abortion ban in the state. According to the AP, Gustafson is projected to lose renomination in the state's 27th to Blackmon. In the 23rd, Shealy is 4 percentage points ahead of Carlisle Kennedy with 88 percent of the expected vote reporting. But with Shealy holding only 40 percent of the vote so far, that race looks to be heading to a runoff. And in the state's 41st, we've got quite the nail-biter: With 80 percent of the expected vote reporting, Senn is behind Leber by just 0.4 points. All together, it looks like all three women are in danger of losing their seats to anti-abortion male challengers.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Related Topics