South Carolina, Nevada primaries and Ohio special election: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win

Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: June 11, 2024, 5:25 PM EDT

June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.

In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.

Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Monica Potts Image
ByMonica Potts
Jun 11, 2024, 11:20 PM EDT

First vote drop shows Johnson with an early lead in Nevada's 3rd

As we wrote earlier, Nevada's 3rd congressional district is likely to be one of the most competitive races in the state this fall, with 7 candidates vying to take on Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in this competitive district in the suburbs south of Las Vegas. With 79 percent of the expected vote reported, Johnson, a think-tank founder and policy analyst, has an early lead with 31 percent of the vote so far, according to the AP. Second is Schwartz, with 24 percent of the vote. Schwartz has been running in, and losing, Republican primaries in Nevada since 2012 — most recently a 2022 bid for lieutenant governor. Brian Nadell, who is on our list of anti-abortion candidates, is way behind, with 1 percent of the vote.

—Monica Potts, 538

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Jun 11, 2024, 11:17 PM EDT

Brown wins in Nevada

And the AP has projected the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Nevada for Brown. He'll take on Rosen in the fall in what will be one of the most competitive Senate races of 2024. In fact, considering the weakness of some of the other candidates Republicans will probably nominate for Senate, I'd consider Nevada to be the party's best pick-up opportunity outside the Big Three red states (West Virginia, Montana and Ohio).

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Republican Senate candidate, retired Army Capt. Sam Brown, thanks supporters while waiting for election results at his campaign office on June 14, 2022 in Reno, Nev.
Josh Edelson/Getty Images, FILE

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Jun 11, 2024, 11:15 PM EDT

Heading for a rematch in Nevada's 1st?

In Nevada's 1st District, 64 percent of the expected vote is counted already, and Robertson leads Larsen 49 percent to 38 percent for the right to take on Titus. As you might recall, Robertson was the GOP's nominee here in 2022 as well.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Jun 11, 2024, 11:12 PM EDT

Finally, votes in Nevada!

We finally have a bunch of votes in Nevada! It was our snarky comments that did it, I'm sure.

According to the AP, 57 percent of the expected vote is already reporting in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. As expected, Brown is crushing Gunter 57 percent to 17 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

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