What can we take away from Trump's big Palmetto State victory?
Former President Donald Trump has won the South Carolina Republican primary, ABC News projects. It was a swift and embarrassing defeat for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who rose to political prominence as South Carolina’s governor. Nevertheless, in her concession speech, Haley vowed to continue her campaign into Super Tuesday on March 5.
Throughout the evening, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
The first few primaries to me don’t seem to suggest the kind of strength that I would expect from a universally known, pretty well-liked (within his party) former president. So, is Trump doing well in this race, or is he just doing better than Haley? And does that mean anything for November?
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
The South has historically been a politically distinct region. This distinctive character — associated for a long time with strong, conservative Democratic affiliation — has been really important in explaining how the Democratic presidential nomination calendar has evolved. Super Tuesday was initially pushed to strengthen Southern influence and give an advantage to moderate candidates. South Carolina itself was moved to a more prominent spot in the primary calendar because many of its Democratic primary voters are African American — unlike in the traditional early states of New Hampshire and Iowa.
But what does this mean for Republicans? The South has been a Republican stronghold for most of the twentieth century, though Democratic presidential candidates have pulled off occasional victories. And South Carolina hasn't been a distinctly regional primary for Republicans (though Georgian Newt Gingrich won the GOP primary there in 2012). Nikki Haley doesn’t seem to be enjoying much home state (or region) advantage there. And Trump, who is from New York, is consistently popular in the South.
The larger point here is probably that, now that it’s generally in the Republican column, the South has been much less exemplary of unique regional politics, and instead has similar issue positions and priorities as other Republican strongholds.
—Julia Azari, 538 contributor
Only a third of the estimated vote is counted so far, but Trump is leading Haley only 59 percent to 40 percent. If that 19-point lead holds, it would be a pretty far cry from the 28-point lead that the polls foresaw, even though they “called” the correct winner. It’s a good reminder that polls of presidential primaries historically have a lot of error.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
If voters are focused on immigration, as the preliminary exit polling shows, that almost certainly plays to Trump’s strengths. In a February poll from The Citadel School of Humanities and Social Sciences, 85 percent of likely GOP primary voters in South Carolina said that they supported the use of state funds under Gov. Henry McMaster’s order to deploy South Carolina National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border last year, while just 11 percent opposed the decision. Among South Carolina voters overall, 57 percent supported the decision, while 35 percent opposed it. This echoes Trump’s position on the issue.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
