Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

Yeah, Nathaniel, polling suggests that those endorsements could make a real difference. According to a February poll from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs, 70 percent of Republican primary voters said that Trump's endorsement would make them more likely to support a state-legislative candidate, and 64 percent said the same of Abbott's endorsement. In addition, 60 percent said that they would be less likely to support a candidate who voted against Abbott's school voucher legislation. And in a YouGov/University of Texas poll from February, a plurality of Republicans (37 percent) said that the Texas House was not justified in impeaching Paxton, compared with 28 percent who said it was justified and 35 percent who weren't sure.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Sitting governors and attorneys general don't usually openly try to defeat incumbents of their own party, but Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton are just built different, I guess. Today's Texas primaries are the culmination of two separate intraparty power struggles from the past year, in which Abbott and Paxton are actively trying to defeat Republicans who have defied them in the state legislature.

In May 2023, the Texas state House impeached Paxton on charges of bribery and abuse of office. He was later acquitted by the state Senate, but he has embarked on a revenge tour against those who supported his impeachment by endorsing primary challengers to 35 incumbent Republicans.

Meanwhile, Abbott suffered a massive political defeat last year when a group of mostly rural Republican legislators blocked his top priority, a school voucher program. In what the Houston Chronicle has called a "legacy-defining" campaign, Abbott has spent more than $4 million trying to oust 10 anti-voucher Republicans running for reelection.

Even Trump has gotten in on the act: He has endorsed at least eight primary challengers to sitting representatives, all of whom either voted against vouchers or voted to impeach Paxton (who is a close Trump ally).

If Paxton, Abbott and Trump are successful, the Republican caucus in the Texas state House will look very different — and further right — next year. Throughout the night, I'll be watching for how many incumbents they successfully topple.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

In Los Angeles, voters will decide which candidates will face off in November for seven of its 15 city council seats. Arguably one of the most powerful city councils in the country, it's been riddled with scandal the past few years.

In 2022, leaked audio revealed then-City Council President Nury Martinez making racist comments in a meeting that included two other council members, which ultimately led to her resignation. One of the other members who was part of that conversation, Kevin de León, remains on the council after surviving months of protests, calls for his resignation (including from President Biden) and a recall attempt. Today he's running for a second four-year term against seven challengers, including two former political allies, state Assemblymembers Miguel Santiago and Wendy Carrillo. Santiago specifically has scooped up the endorsement of the key labor unions that once backed de León, as well as the Los Angeles County Democratic Party.

Overall, policing, affordable housing and homelessness are big issues in the city, the second largest in the nation, and how the council decides to handle those issues in the future could help set the tone for the rest of the country. Today's elections could help decide, in part, how progressive the council will be: In other races, business interests have been targeting progressive Councilmember Nithya Raman, and spending to bolster the council's only non-Democrat, independent John Lee, who faces an ethics probe and a more progressive challenger.

—Monica Potts, 538

The race for Senate in Texas will surely be one of the most closely watched races of the year. There are nine candidates running in the Democratic primary to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz, but the front-runner is Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player and civil rights attorney who has represented the Dallas area since 2019. Allred has raised the most funds (to the tune of $21 million) and attracted donations from party influencers. The biggest question tonight is whether Allred can pull more than 50 percent of the vote and avoid a May runoff.

There are also a handful of U.S. representatives in Texas with at least some danger of losing their seats tonight, as Jacob covered earlier. Keep your eyes on Houston Democrat Lizzie Fletcher in the 7th District, who is facing a challenger from the left in Pervez Agwan; Democrat Sheila Jackson Lee in the 18th District, whose run for Houston mayor last year destabilized her campaign against former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards; and Republican Tony Gonzales in the 23rd District, who is facing multiple challengers and may also end up in runoff territory.

And there are some open seats up for grabs, creating hotly contested primary races. In the 12th District around Fort Worth, it's the familiar GOP battle between results-focused conservatism of the old guard versus the firebrand populism of MAGA. State Rep. Craig Goldman represents the establishment candidate, while business owner John O'Shea fills the role of MAGA candidate. In the 26th District, two far-right candidates are leading a slate of 11 to fill the open seat in this deep-red stronghold: Brandon Gill, who heavily promoted his father-in-law, Dinesh D'Souza's, conspiracy-theory-laden film "2000 Mules" on his website, and Southlake Mayor John Huffman. And lastly, with Allred making a play for the Senate, his Dallas-area 32nd District is up for grabs. Ten Democrats are running in the primary, though two in particular seem to be leading the pack: state Rep. Julie Johnson and trauma surgeon Brian Williams.

If you're interested in reading more on these races, check out my full preview from last week. Otherwise, I'll have more on these races and other takeaways from Texas after polls begin to close there at 8 p.m. Eastern.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538