Good values in stocks among the ruins in Europe?

ByABC News
October 27, 2011, 6:54 PM

— -- Europe is the next big thing.

The problem is, Europe has always been the next big thing — at least since 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell. Or 1999, when the euro was introduced. Or since Thursday, when the 17 nations of the eurozone came to an agreement on how to handle the Greek debt crisis. Waiting for Europe to break out has been like watching a soccer match: long and vaguely disappointing.

Rather than focus on Europe's potential, however, it may be best to focus on Europe's bargains, which have increased sharply this year. Even though European markets rallied Thursday, you can still find plenty of good deals.

The Greek crisis, in a nutshell, is this: Greece borrowed a great deal of money. People loaned Greece money because they relied on economic data from the Greek government, which was wildly inaccurate.

The European Central Bank loaned Greece money to cover its debts, while demanding that the country tighten its budget. Eventually, however, it became clear that even with the austerity programs, Greece still probably wouldn't be able to pay its debts.

Under the new agreement, some holders of Greek bonds will get 50 cents on the dollar for their investment, which will reduce the Greek debt burden.

European banks, many of which hold Greek bonds, will have to increase their capital — the cushion against losses.

Finally, the European Financial Stability Facility will increase its line of credit to 1 trillion euros. (On Thursday, a euro was worth $1.421, so a trillion euros would be $1.421 trillion.) The EFSF will use its borrowing power to shore up the markets for other troubled EU nations, notably Italy, Spain and Portugal.

Problems? You betcha. "It would be nice to have some details," says Kathy Jones, fixed-income strategist for Charles Schwab, the discount brokerage. For example: Which Greek bondholders take the haircut?

Typically, you can't promise one bondholder — the European Central Bank, say — 100 cents on the dollar and another one 50 cents on the dollar.

Other questions: Where will this additional lending money for the EFSF come from? And how are European banks going to raise capital?

"I'm a bit skeptical that this solves all their problems," Jones says. "It assumes that Greece comes back to a positive growth rate, and that they will get their debt under control. That's unrealistic in the current environment."

Nevertheless, the agreement does lend some optimism in Europe's ability to work on its problems — which, in turn, increases optimism about European stocks.

European stocks could use some optimism. The Standard & Poor's Euro index is down 16.2%, measured in euros, for the year, vs. a gain of 2.1% for the S&P 500. And that's including Thursday's big rally.

Norm Boersma, manager of Templeton Growth, has been pushing money into Europe this year, especially since July. The fund is now 45% in European stocks. "We've been buying into the pain, and there's been a lot of it," he says.

The fund has bought a basket of European bank stocks, primarily because they've been beaten down so much. "They are starting to recover, and businesses are profitable," Boersma says. "Even with recapitalization, these are still cheap."