Stocks in Crocs, other fashion shoemakers, take a hit

— -- The uneven road for shoemakers' stocks this year is perplexing investors who consider the companies an indicator of consumers' willingness to spend.

While smaller makers of more fashion-oriented shoes are struggling , larger players in the industry are holding up well and even outpacing the recent surge in markets.

The latest shoemaker stock to trip up was Crocs, a maker of rubber clogs, which on Tuesday fell $10.49, or 39%, to $16.15. Just 26 other stocks in the Standard & Poor's 1500 index have fallen by 30% or more in a single day over the past two years, says Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.

Yet, other makers of more fashion-oriented shares have been struggling, too. Skechers, K-Swiss, Steve Madden, Iconix and Heelys have seen their shares drop 20% to 60% from their highest points the past 52 weeks. "With the fad brands, these things come and go," says Paul Swinand, analyst at Morningstar, not pinpointing any specific shoemaker.

Analysts are closely watching footwear stocks because:

•Shoe sales can be a good measure of the economy's health. Footwear is part of the consumer discretionary sector, which contains stocks of companies that make things consumers can put off buying until they feel better economically, says Sam Stovall of S&P. Shoe sales tend to be more resilient than other areas of consumer spending, yet, an increase shows greater consumer confidence, Swinand says.

•Crocs was a leading stock. Last year, shares of Crocs soared 198%, making it one of the best stocks. The sell-off was sparked when Crocs late Monday warned third-quarter sales and earnings were coming in 2% and 20%, respectively, below forecasts.

Crocs' problems are due to temporary issues managing the supply chain, not demand for its products, says Sam Poser, analyst at Sterne Agee & Leach. "Crocs is not a fad company," he says.

•Demographic shifts. Nike, which has seen its stock rise 7% this year, continues to benefit from the resurgence in interest in running by older adults, Swinand says. "Nike has a tailwind," he says. "This is about who is executing the best," Poser says.