What are you going to do with your tax rebate?

— -- Rob Karas, 39, of Haymarket, Va., expects to receive a tax rebate of $2,400 this spring. It's a nice-sized amount, but don't look to the Karas family to stimulate the economy.

Karas, an information security expert, plans to invest $1,200 in retirement savings for himself and his wife. The remaining $1,200, he says, will go straight into college savings accounts for his four children, ages 1 through 11.

He had considered using the money to take his family to Disney World. But "With the uncertainty of the economy," Karas says, "right now, I'm going to forget I got that money and put it in mutual funds."

That's not exactly what the Bush administration wants to hear. Starting in early May, more than 130 million Americans — or at least, those who have filed a tax return by the deadline at midnight Tuesday night — will receive tax rebates ranging from $300 to $600, or $1,200 for married couples, plus $300 for each dependent child. The rebates, which represent a one-time cut in 2008 tax rates, were intended to help rescue the economy from recession by encouraging consumer spending. A similar rebate program in 2001 was widely credited with curtailing that year's recession.

But this time could be different. Home values have plummeted, gas prices are higher and millions of Americans are hip-deep in debt. Consumer confidence has sunk to its lowest in 26 years.

Though consumers don't always do what they say they will, some polls suggest that the rebates are unlikely to spend the economy out of trouble. According to a survey by CCH, which publishes tax reference guides and tax software, 47% of adults say they plan to use their rebates to pay down debt; 32% say they plan to save the money.

Just 21% intend to spend it.

In a separate survey by H&R Block, 45% of Americans said they plan to use the rebate to pay bills, 18% plan to invest the money and 21% expect to use it for necessities, such as groceries. Only 16% said they'd spend it on non-necessities, such as a vacation.

A survey conducted on behalf of the National Retail Federation was more optimistic. According to the NRF survey, consumers will spend nearly 41% of the estimated $105.7 billion in rebates, pumping about $43 billion into the economy. Americans will use about $30 billion, or 28%, to pay down debt and save about $20 billion, or 19%, the survey said.