Model T turns 100; it was truly an engine of change

DEARBORN, Mich. -- Industry experts believe that by the next century, cars may no longer run on fossil fuels. We may have tiny personal mobility vehicles powered by the sun and air. Cars might drive themselves, letting commuters sit back and read the paper. Crashes may seem a relic of a barbaric past.

"We don't even know who our competitors will be," says Larry Burns, General Motors' vice president of research and development.

Saturday marked the 100th anniversary of the Model T, the first simple, inexpensive car to be mass-produced and marketed to the masses. Within a few years, half the vehicles on the road were Model T's.

Just as it's a struggle today to guess what the industry will be like in 2108, it would've been nearly impossible in 1908 to predict how the Model T would change the world.

On Saturday, 50 Model T's paraded from Ford's headquarters here to the Piquette Avenue plant in Detroit where the cars were first assembled, marking the end of a year-long celebration of the Model T and its storied past.

When the Model T first hit America's roads, cities were choked with people and horses, and the top public health nuisances were horse manure and urine and flies. One New York forecaster warned that by 1930, manure would reach the third story of Manhattan's buildings.

The Model T, and cars to follow, became the unlikely solution, causing an explosion in the number of automobiles. The 79,000 vehicles in 1905 had grown to 244.2 million in 2006 and also led to air pollution, a vast network of paved roads and the birth and growth of suburbs.

But even now, only 13% of the world's population owns a car. Global development is expected to change that rapidly, with the world market increasing from 70 million cars and trucks a year to 100 million within years.

Energy will be a leading concern as more drivers use oil and gas reserves more quickly. Donald Hillebrand, director of transportation research at Argonne National Laboratory, says the world consumes about 1 cubic mile of oil a year and there's an estimated 45 cubic miles left.