How jobs growth forecast was done

— -- Economic consulting firm Moody's Economy.com has forecasted U.S. job growth by geographic region and by industry. We will update this graphic each month with revised data from Moody's Economy.com.

This graphic shows last year's actual job growth and Moody's Economy.com's forecasted job growth for 2009 and 2009-12. It covers every U.S. state and the District of Columbia and fourteen industry sectors. The data are seasonally adjusted.

National and state data through fourth-quarter 2008 are averages of monthly data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey.

The CES survey tracks the number of people employed full and part time by industry. It excludes proprietors, self-employed people, unpaid family or volunteer workers, farmworkers and domestic workers. Government employment covers only civilian workers. Employees are counted where they work, not where they live.

The data for 2009 through 2012 are forecasted by Moody's Economy.com. Demographic trends such as population growth, migration patterns, the age composition of populations, cost of living and business costs, and the global orientation of regional economies are key factors in its longer-term job growth forecasts.

The short-term jobs forecasting model reflects the industry makeup of regions and the growth outlook for those industries. For example, the industrial Midwest takes into account the problems in the auto industry, and the relative success of the technology industry is reflected in forecasts for California's Bay Area and Boston.

Moody's Economy.com's model also takes into account policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve and the specifics of the fiscal stimulus package and the bank bailout legislation as details become available.

Data for 381 metro areas will be added to this interactive graphic in the coming weeks and will also be updated monthly.