When demand releases, it may be shop 'til you drop time

— -- While the recession has put the brakes on recreational spending, it has also caused many consumers to put off major purchases — such as a new car or washing machine — until the economy rebounds.

Those postponed purchases represent a phenomenon known as "pent-up demand," which is often the key to emerging from an economic downturn.

The bad news is there's considerable disagreement among economists about how much pent-up demand exists right now and what it will take to unleash it. Economists say the longer people pull back, the more likely it is they'll spend even more when their confidence in the economy returns.

May's retail sales, out Thursday, were worse than expected, and consumer spending is expected to remain weak this quarter and next, IHS Global Insight chief economist Brian Bethune says. And that's despite the fact that consumer confidence is growing — up strongly last month, according to the Conference Board's consumer confidence index.

There are positive signs. Shoppers are less willing to "limit their spending, seek deals or trade down to lower-priced brands and retailers" because of the recession, finds a survey by market research firm Retail Forward.

But analysts are divided about when the shopping fever will hit.

Not until next year, says consumer insights firm BIGresearch. Executive vice president of strategy Phil Rist says there isn't much pent-up demand, because most people can't envision having the money to spend anytime soon, and tax rebates and refunds often go to pay down debt.

"Money needs to move, to circulate, in order for a consumer economy to work," Rist says. Only 31% of consumers in a recent poll by BIGresearch admitted to a pent-up desire to shop. And 47% didn't expect to shop big until next year. Still, retail analyst Marshal Cohen of market research firm NPD Group believes the spending orgy of the last several years — and subsequent pullback — has made a big rebound inevitable.

"Pent-up demand is reaching a fever pitch, because so much growth occurred uninterrupted for so long," Cohen says.