Here are sectors that could lead the market's recovery

— -- Q: What are the bull sectors for 2009 and 2010?

A: Now, that's a loaded question.

Not only are you asking which sectors will outperform in 2009 or 2010, your question seems to assume there will be a bull market this year and next. Clearly, there's no way to know whether either of those assumptions will prove true.

But let's suspend reality for a minute and assume a bull market occurs in 2009 or 2010. There's no guarantee which sectors will lead, but we do have some historical perspective to draw on.

Since 1945, there is a pattern to which sectors tend to outperform during different stages of an economic cycle, according to Standard & Poor's Sam Stovall. The pattern looks like this:

Early economic expansion leadersTechnologyConsumer discretionaryMaterials

Late economic expansion leadersIndustrialsEnergyTelecom

Early economic contraction leadersHealth careConsumer Staples

Late economic contraction leadersUtilities FinancialsTechnology

So if you're right, and the economic expansion comes later this year, you can look for technology, consumer discretionary and materials stocks to be leaders. So far this year, other investors appear to be assuming that, too, given that the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index is up by double-digits in 2009 while the other major stock indexes are down.

But remember, if the economic recovery everyone expects stalls, the previous leaders will be the first to correct.

If you're interested in monitoring industry groups and sectors, you should check out USA TODAY's Market Trends page. It gives you a weekly graphical look at which sectors are leading or lagging the market. You can find the page most Mondays in the print edition or at money.usatoday.com.

Matt Krantz is a financial markets reporter at USA TODAY and author of Investing Online for Dummies. He answers a different reader question every weekday in his Ask Matt column at money.usatoday.com. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com. Click here to see previous Ask Matt columns. Follow Matt on Twitter at: twitter.com/mattkrantz