How jobs growth forecast was done
— -- Economic consulting firm Moody's Economy.com has forecasted U.S. job growth by geographic region and by industry. This interactive was updated July 29, 2009. We will update it each month.
This graphic shows actual job growth through first-quarter 2009 and Moody's Economy.com's forecasted job growth for second-quarter 2009 through first-quarter 2013. It covers every state, the District of Columbia and 384 metro areas, broken down by fourteen industry sectors. The data are seasonally adjusted.
National, state and metro data through first-quarter 2009 are averages of monthly data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey.
The CES survey tracks the number of people employed full and part time by industry. It excludes proprietors, self-employed people, unpaid family or volunteer workers, farmworkers and domestic workers. Government employment covers only civilian workers. Employees are counted where they work, not where they live.
The data for second-quarter 2009 through first-quarter 2013 are forecasted by Moody's Economy.com. Demographic trends such as population growth, migration patterns, the age composition of populations, cost of living and business costs, and the global orientation of regional economies are key factors in its forecasts.
The forecasting model reflects the industry makeup of regions and the growth outlook for those industries. For example, the industrial Midwest takes into account the problems in the auto industry, and the relative success of the technology industry is reflected in forecasts for California's Bay Area and Boston.
Moody's Economy.com's model also takes into account policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve and the specifics of the fiscal stimulus package and the bank bailout legislation as details become available.
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