Cramer: Something to Talk About

N E W  Y O R K,  July 13 -- We have a familiar pattern developing.

The two weeks before earnings season is filled with gloom as the companies that couldn’t do the job preannounce their sins. These blowups are all extrapolated to the rest of the members of the group. So when NBC Internet blows up, people take down the rest of the Net. And when Computer Associates implodes, sellers savage the rest of tech.

Cover Our Shorts

Right before earnings season begins, the press is filled with stories about who is next to blow up.

Wrong!

Once we are in earnings season we are done blowing up. That’s it. That’s why I don’t get the oft-rumored Microsoft blowup. If it hasn’t preannounced by now it ain’t preannouncing. It made the number. That’s why we cover our shorts going into this week.

But, there is another pattern to be aware of. The companies that report the earliest are the ones that tend to be the best run and most organized. They have the best handle on their businesses.

Next week will bring some good and probably some bad. Some of these companies next week will disappoint, but not disappoint in the way that will upset the whole shooting match. By that time, the market could be so robust that the Fed might be back on the radar screen — especially if we get some strong data. Which is how we could lose the rosy glow pattern we have now. It is a cycle. The cycle of negativity and then positive action and then back to neutral. It gets played out every quarter. It just doesn’t get talked about. Except for here.