What Trump's reelection means for union workers, according to experts

In recent years, the labor movement received a makeover. A surge in organizing and a swell of popularity coincided with the tenure of President Joe Biden, who some labor leaders have praised as the most pro-union president in the nation’s history.

The impending arrival of President-elect Donald Trump has thrust some of those gains into question, experts told ABC News.

Trump’s first term featured a weakening of labor regulations and the appointment of pro-management officials in key positions, experts said, voicing expectations of a similar approach when Trump returns to office.

Such changes would likely make it more difficult for workers to form unions and negotiate workplace improvements, but the labor movement may withstand those headwinds since many of the factors that have driven its growth remain in place, experts said.

“It’s going to be a dramatic change,” Paul Clark, professor of labor and employment relations at Pennsylvania State University, told ABC News. “But I don’t think you’ll see that momentum reverse overnight. In the long run, it's harder to say.”

The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to ABC News' request for comment.

Soon after he takes office in January, Trump is expected to replace National Labor Relations Board General Counsel Jennifer Abruzzo, who has enforced federal policy in a manner widely viewed as pro-union.

The move would mirror a similar action taken by Biden, who fired then-NLRB General Counsel Peter Robb on Biden’s first day in office. Trump may also opt to remove Democratic members of the NLRB’s five-person board, though such a move could face a stiff legal challenge, experts said.

In one of its most notable rulings during the Biden presidency, the NLRB decided last year that the agency could order companies to grant approval of a union if they had been found to illegally obstruct worker organizing.

The decision discouraged companies from union-busting, helping to make up for what many in the labor movement view as insufficient financial penalties for firms found to have illegally cracked down on organizing, Wilma Liebman, former chair of the NLRB under President Barack Obama, told ABC News.

The Trump administration, however, will likely reverse the move, Liebman added.

“I’d say it was one of the most significant, if not the most significant, decision of the Biden era,” Liebman said. “I’d imagine that it will be short-lived.”

The Trump administration may also resist changes sought by Democrats that would create new avenues for union growth, experts said. Some Democrats have tried to make it easier for gig workers to classify as formal employees, paving the way for potential organizing campaigns at the likes of Uber or Lyft.

Meanwhile, the NLRB issued a rule last year making it easier for workers at contractors or franchises to be considered employees of a parent company, allowing unions to potentially organize far-flung fast food employees or e-commerce delivery drivers as a unified group.

The rule was struck down in federal court in March, but the NLRB had been expected to revive the effort, experts said. The agency is unlikely to move forward with such a measure under Trump.

“It’s usually the left is expanding union rights and expanding the reach of law, and the right is contracting it,” said David Sherwyn, a professor of hospitality and human resources at Cornell University who previously worked as a management-side employment lawyer.

“Union law is notorious for flipping back and forth,” he added. “That is to be expected.”

Still, questions remain about the exact posture toward unions that will be taken up by the Trump administration. The Trump campaign courted union workers and welcomed a speech from Teamsters President Sean O’Brien at the Republican National Convention. Vice President-elect JD Vance has expressed views critical of large corporations and sympathetic toward workers.

“It's out there as a question mark,” Liebman said.

A worker-friendly approach would mark a major departure from Trump's first term. Trump appointed management-friendly lawyer Eugene Scalia as secretary of labor. For the National Labor Relations Board, a government agency that enforces rules protecting union organizing, Trump chose Robb, another lawyer who spent his career representing employers.

Speaking with billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk in August, Trump praised Musk for what he described as a willingness to fire employees who go out on strike. Federal labor law prohibits the termination of workers for engaging in a collective labor action, such as a strike.

"They go on strike. I won't mention the name of the company but they go on strike and you say, 'That's OK. You're all gone. You're all gone. Every one of you is gone.' You are the greatest," Trump told Musk in an interview broadcast on X.

Even if the federal government shifts toward a pro-management posture, the labor movement will likely sustain some of the strength it has built in recent years, experts said. Seventy percent of American adults approve of unions, hovering near an all-time high last reached in 1965, according to a Gallup poll released in August.

Nearly 460,000 workers were involved in significant workplace strikes in 2023, which marked a 280% increase from the prior year, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed.

“It’s harder to take a hammer to the labor movement,” Sherwym said. “Labor is not seen as the problem like it was at one point.”

“Trump has to thread the needle,” Sherwyn added, saying the administration would likely shift the federal government toward the side of management, while limiting the damage for unions. “Blowing up the system would be an utter mess, and I don’t see Trump doing that.”