Will Fourth Year Bring Civil War or Peace in Iraq?

March 19, 2006 — -- After three years at war, Iraq is at what many people believe to be a crossroads: There have been both tentative steps toward a stable democratic government and menacing moves toward civil war.

Since the invasion of Iraq, Americans have helped fix up 825 schools, 13 hospitals and 302 police stations -- but were also have been disgraced by the images of mistreatment at Abu Ghraib prison.

Iraqis have participated in two triumphant elections -- only to have the first full-term parliament meet for the first time this week for just 37 minutes.

Much like Iraqis, Americans are divided about the war, and more are losing faith. Only 42 percent now think the war was worth fighting -- down nearly 30 percent in three years.

After the bombing of a holy Shiite shrine last month, which set off a wave of religious violence, 80 percent of Americans now predict civil war.

Today, Iraq's former prime minister, Iyad Allawi, issued an ominous warning. He said the country is already in a civil war and "moving toward the point of no return."

U.S. officials insist a civil war is a ways off and say the best way to avoid disintegration is for Iraq's leaders to form a unity government that includes all three Iraq's main religious and ethnic groups.

"Success would be a reasonably stable, decent, pluralistic government," said Fareed Zakaria, editor of Newsweek International. "In the next three months, these are the make-or-break times for this national compact. It will either happen, or it won't -- and the Iraqis might have a civil war."

U.S. officials add that the sooner Iraq has battle-worthy security forces, the sooner American troops can come home -- which is why the U.S. has made much of the prominent role Iraq has played in Operation Swarmer, the anti-insurgent offensive this weekend.