Excerpt: 'The Future of Everything'

Nov. 4, 2006 — -- Can we really tell what the future has in store?

That's the question David Orrell investigates in "The Future of Everything," in stores Dec. 28, 2006. By looking back at how scientists have predicted the future in the past, Orrell puts forth visions of what the coming years may be like.

Consulting the Crystal Ball

Our World in 2100

But what have been thy answers, what but darkAmbiguous, and with double sense deluding,Which they who asked have seldom understood . . .No more shalt thou by oracling abuseThe Gentiles; henceforth oracles are ceased,And thou no more with pomp and sacrificeShalt be enquired at Delphos or elsewhere,At least in vain, for they shall find thee mute. -- John Milton, Paradise Regained

Let now the astrologers, the star-gazers, the monthlyprognosticators, stand up and save thee from these things thatshall come upon thee. -- Isaiah, 47:13

Forecast 2100

So now that we have all those theoretical points and disclaimers outof the way, we can ask how things will really look in the year 2100.While researching this book, I came across a variety of ideas, scenarios,predictions, and concerns. Most are based on the output ofGCMs, coupled in some cases with models of physical, biologicalor economic systems. Others are speculations based on what appearto be credible scenarios. The most plausible are listed below.

The average global temperature will rise by about five degrees(C or F).

Droughts in places such as Spain, Australia, New Zealand, theMiddle East, and parts of the United States will make it difficultto grow traditional crops.

Wheat yields will improve in Canada and Russia.

Sea levels will rise by a metre or more.

Summer monsoons in Asia will be more variable, withincreased risks of floods or droughts.

Three million cubic kilometres of ice in the Greenland icesheet will begin a long and unstoppable melting process.

The West Antarctic ice sheet will also begin to melt.

Glaciers worldwide will continue to recede.

The Arctic will have ice-free summers, impacting on ice-livinganimals, birds, and northern indigenous peoples.

Much of the tundra in northern countries will disappear,releasing its stores of carbon.

A combination of fires and pest outbreaks will severely damageboreal forests in China and other countries.

Huge dust storms in the Gobi and Sahara deserts will causerespiratory problems worldwide.

Local warming and rainfall reduction will cause parts of theAmazonian rainforest to collapse and die, releasing their storesof carbon.

Wetlands such as South America's Pantanal will dry out,impacting species such as migratory birds.

Storms and hurricanes will dramatically intensify.338 Future

Areas including France, Germany, and the northwest UnitedStates will experience increased heat waves, like the one thathit Paris in the summer of 2003.

Coastal erosion will displace hundreds of millions of people,destroy prime farmland, flood entire island nations, andresult in huge costs for cities such as Alexandria, Amsterdam,Manila, Calcutta, and London.

The thermohaline ocean circulation will slow or stop, causingthe U.K. winter to go Canadian.

Warmer oceans will result in quasi-permanent El Niñoconditions.

Exhausted fisheries will not recover.

Coral reefs will turn white.

Losses in species diversity will result in widespread ecosystemcollapse.

Global warming will accelerate disease spread in a range ofspecies, from coral to Hawaiian songbirds.

Dengue fever, malaria, and other mosquito-borne tropicalillnesses will head north.

The increased incursion of humans into natural habitats willbring new and deadly diseases.

Biotechnologists will accidentally or deliberately create novelpathogens that will be released into the population.

Our increased population density, coupled with rapid transportationnetworks, will result in fast-spreading pandemics.

The gap between rich and poor will accelerate, leading toincreased social and economic instabilities.

The NASDAQ stock index will reach one million.

Poor people will cluster in vulnerable areas, and the numberof lives lost to natural disasters will continue to climb.

Wars will erupt over water, as well as oil.

Local shortages of food and water will lead to mass migrations.

Climate disruption, unsustainable land use, ecosystem collapse,population growth, pollution, and other factors willcombine to reinforce one another and accelerate the degradationof the planet.

An asteroid at least fifty kilometres wide will collide with theearth sometime during the century, killing millions of people.

The release of tiny, self-replicating machines invented by nanotechnologistswill reduce the surface of the planet to a "greygoo."

There will be a nuclear war, followed by a nuclear winter.

Civilization will collapse globally.

Other things to look out for are the following:

The average global temperature will be little changed.

The growth in global communication, coupled with increasedinterest in the environment, will help slow or reverse environmentaldamage.