Why Biden's Ukraine ATACMS green light might mean peace talks pressure for Putin

LONDON -- Ukraine is expected to soon begin using American-made ATACMS missiles to hit military targets in Russia's western Kursk region, after President Joe Biden lifted restrictions on Kyiv's use of the long-range weapon following months of pressure.

Three U.S. officials confirmed to ABC News on Sunday that Biden had authorized Ukraine to use the ATACMS -- officially called the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System -- in Russia's western Kursk region.

There, Moscow's troops -- now supported by North Korean forces, according to U.S. officials -- have been fighting to defeat a Ukrainian incursion since August. Kyiv's forces in Kursk are already using American- and European-made armored vehicles, including tanks.

Ukrainian troops have been using the cluster munition and unitary variants of the ATACMS since October 2023 to hit Russian targets on occupied Ukrainian territory. The White House withheld permission for Ukraine to strike within Russia for fear of retaliation from Moscow and concerns about available stocks.

Approval to use the 190-mile-range weapon to hit targets in Kursk is politically significant. Biden will soon be out of the White House, and President-elect Donald Trump's apparent skepticism towards continued aid to Kyiv has raised concerns of a sudden drop-off in U.S. aid.

The ATACMS green light in Kursk might produce relatively limited battlefield results, experts told ABC News, though the looming future threat to other Russian regions may increase pressure on Moscow in any revived peace talks.

At the front

The Institute for the Study of War think tank said in its Sunday evening update that the "partial lifting" of restrictions on Western long-range weapon use in Kursk "will not completely deprive Russian forces of their sanctuary in Russian territory, as hundreds of military objects remain within ATACMS range in other Russian border regions."

Ivan Stupak, a former officer in the Security Service of Ukraine, told ABC News the decision -- while a "decisive" White House move -- will not "change anything on a global scale."

"The number of missiles and targets on Russian territory are strictly limited," Stupak added. "It could help to eliminate 1-2,000 Russian servicemen and about 150 units of heavy equipment," he continued, and help "significantly slow down Russia's rolling advance in the Kursk region."

Dan Rice, who served as a special adviser to former Ukrainian commander-in-chief Gen. Valery Zaluzhnyi and has been involved in Kyiv's push for several advanced American weapons, said the White House decision was "slow, deliberate and telegraphed."

"The ATACMS' 300-kilometer maximum range doesn't reach that far," added Rice, who is now the president of the American University Kyiv. "It can't reach airfields, factories or energy infrastructure deep within Russia." Longer-range weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles, Rice added, would help stop intensifying Russian missile and drone strikes.

A senior U.S. defense official confirmed to ABC News on Monday that Ukraine has not yet used any ATACMS missiles on Russian soil.

Stupak said Ukrainian commanders would be best served targeting major military warehouses, repair centers and airfields, rather than concentrations of Russian or North Korean manpower.

The "rockets will speak for themselves," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a Monday post to social media.

At the negotiating table

It is perhaps on the diplomatic front that ATACMS will make the largest impact.

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Monday he hoped European nations would follow suit. Discussions are ongoing as to restrictions on Kyiv's use of long-range British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles inside Russia, while Ukraine is still pushing Germany to provide Taurus cruise missiles.

In Moscow, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists that the reported White House decision would represent "a qualitatively new round of tension and a qualitatively new situation from the point of view of the involvement of the United States in this conflict."

Washington, D.C., Peskov added, is adding "fuel to the fire."

The Russian Foreign Ministry directed reporters to previous comments made by President Vladimir Putin. In September, Putin said approval for long-range strikes using Western weapons within Russia would mean "that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are at war with Russia."

Trump's presidential election victory has revived discussions of cease-fire and peace talks, the president-elect having vowed to end the war in 24 hours by forcing Zelenskyy and Putin to the negotiating table.

Moscow is intensifying its long-range and ground attacks, seemingly to strengthen its hand if talks do indeed resume once Trump returns to the Oval Office.

Ukrainian military analyst Sergey Bratchuk wrote on Telegram that Biden's decision is "a great move," though comes "very late."

The president, he added, "just strengthened his negotiating position. Now the map of long-range strikes is on the table and we will have to reckon with it, whether Russia wants it or not."

Oleksandr Merezhkko -- a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chair of the body's foreign affairs committee -- concurred that the approval "gives us a better chance to win the war."

"It would be better to lift any restrictions on the use of Western weaponry deep into the territory of Russia," he told ABC News. "It would allow us better defense of our territory. Such a move might force Putin to negotiate in earnest."

"He doubles down when he sees weakness," Merezhko added of Putin. "The only way to restrain him is to respond to his actions with more strength."

ABC News' Shannon K. Kingston, Luis Martinez, Anastasia Bagaeva, Tanya Stukalova, Patrick Reevell, Joe Simonetti and Lauren Minore contributed to this report.