Israel-Gaza updates: Israel says it agrees to cease-fire, hostage release

Israel has agreed to an updated framework that would establish a six-week cease-fire in Gaza in exchange for the release of 40 hostages, an Israeli source told ABC News. The development follows talks in Paris, which includes officials from the U.S., Israel, Qatar and Egypt.

While Israel says it's waiting to hear back from Hamas on whether it will accept the updated language from this weekend's talks, Israel is pushing forward with plans to enter Rafah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted on X that operational plans and evacuation plans in Rafah are ready to be approved by his cabinet.

As part of the proposed deal, Israel has agreed to release jailed Palestinians at a higher ratio than the previous deal, which was 3 to 1. Up to 400 Palestinian prisoners could be released in this new deal.

The Israel Defense Forces will redeploy but not withdraw from Gaza.

-ABC News' Marcus Moore

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is signaling a possible shift back to a long-standing U.S. policy rejecting Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank, calling it "inconsistent with international law."

Asked at a press availability in Argentina for his response to Israel’s purported plans to build thousands of new settlement homes in the area, Blinken responded, "We’ve seen the reports, and I have to say we’re disappointed in the announcement."

"It's been long-standing U.S. policy under Republican and Democratic administration alike that new settlements are counterproductive to reaching an enduring peace. They're also inconsistent with international law," Blinken said. "Our administration maintains firm opposition to settlement expansion, and in our judgment, this only weakens -- doesn't strengthen -- Israel security."

The Biden administration has condemned Israeli expansion in the West Bank for years, but the State Department had not yet gone so far as to say they ran afoul of international law after Blinken’s predecessor, Mike Pompeo, said in 2019 that the U.S. would no longer view Israeli settlements in the West Bank, Golan Heights and East Jerusalem as violations.

But before delivering his rebuke, Blinken made note of what he called a "horrific terrorist attack" on a Jewish settlement in the West Bank this week and said the U.S. would continue to support Israel’s right to defend itself and its people.

-ABC News’ Shannon Crawford

CIA Director Bill Burns will head to Europe on Friday for another round of Gaza hostage negotiations as the parties seek to reach a deal before the Ramadan holiday begins, according to two U.S. officials.

One Israeli official said U.S. negotiators have been pressuring Israel to strike an agreement before the holiday due in part to the administration's goal to see Saudi Arabia normalize relations with the country.

Two U.S. officials told ABC News there has been incremental progress in recent days, and that they did not see Ramadan as a hard deadline but anticipated it would be difficult to press on with negotiations during the holiday because much of Hamas' operations will likely shut down on March 11, making it even harder to continue indirect communication with the group's officials than it already is.

The White House's envoy for the Middle East, Brett McGurk, held talks throughout the day Thursday with Israeli leaders.

Following his discussion with McGurk, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in a statement that Israel will now "expand the authority given to our hostage negotiators."

Late Thursday, the Israeli War Cabinet approved the decision to send negotiators to Paris to participate in the upcoming round of talks.

-ABC News' Shannon Crawford and Dana Savir

More than 85,000 people in Gaza could die over the next six months if the war between Israel and Hamas escalates, epidemiologists from Johns Hopkins University and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine found.

The epidemiologists presented findings about death tolls in three potential scenarios: if a cease-fire is reached, if the war remains as it is, and if the war escalates.

If a cease-fire is reached, more than 11,000 people will die over the next six months, the findings estimate, based on current conditions inside Gaza.

If the status quo of the war is maintained, more than 66,000 people will die during the same period, the findings show.

And in the worst-case scenario, if the war escalates, more than 85,000 people could die, the report found.

These numbers are in addition to the more than 29,000 people who have already died in Gaza since Oct. 7, according to Gaza's Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health.

-ABC News’ Ellie Kaufman