Who's Running Cuba?

HAVANA, CUBA, Oct. 9, 2006 — -- Defense minister and second in the Cuban hierarchy, Raul Castro insisted on Sunday that his 80-year-old brother, Fidel, was on the mend after undergoing abdominal surgery, and that he'd be back in office soon.

However, the younger brother and presidential stand-in of more than two months is now taking over the leftist icon's political space like no one else has in 47 years, fostering renewed speculation over the future leadership of the Communist island nation.

Time magazine reported over the weekend that U.S. government officials believe the elder Castro has terminal cancer, but one official cautioned that definitive proof was not available.

"Fidel is doing well. He has a telephone and is using it more and more," Raul said Sunday during a televised national meeting of 15-year-old students in Havana.

"He is not dying as some press in Miami report, but constantly improving," he said, adding that the student delegates would hold a special session with his brother in December.

Raul said he and other leaders had met with Fidel Friday evening "for a number of hours" during which they discussed "important matters" and Fidel "gave instructions."

Fidel issued a communique on July 31, stating that he was temporarily ceding power to Raul, 75, because he was undergoing surgery for intestinal bleeding and would need weeks to recover.

Fidel has not appeared publicly since July 26. State-run media have carried videos and pictures of him in pajamas meeting friends and dignitaries in his hospital room, but no new photographs of the leader have been released in three weeks.

"They are keeping everyone confused about the situation. One minute, it's 'Fidel will be back soon' and the next, Raul acts like he is now president," a Western diplomat told ABC News.

Barring a major medical setback, various government sources insist that Fidel will once more occupy his office before the end of the year, but it will be difficult, indeed, to erase recent events and Raul's emergence as a somewhat less verbal substitute.

It seems a dual leadership with a bigger role for Raul is the most likely scenario in the coming months.

Last week, Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque told Cubans that Castro would return to his post as maximum leader, but he did not say when.

There are various versions of what ails Fidel, from terminal cancer to the deterioration of his large intestine.