EU candidate Moldova to hold two pivotal votes as officials denounce Russian 'hybrid attacks'

MAGDACESTI, Moldova -- On a frigid evening in a village near Moldova’s capital, President Maia Sandu warned locals of Russian meddling as she seeks reelection and touted joining the European Union as the only way forward.

Her message came days before key votes that could help to determine the country’s future.

Sandu is seeking a second term in office in a presidential election Sunday in which she is opposed by several pro-Moscow candidates out of a total of 11. A “yes” or “no” referendum will also be held the same day on whether to enshrine the path toward joining the EU in the country's constitution.

“This decision will influence our lives not only for the next four years,” the pro-Western president told the crowd from an outdoor bandstand in Magdacesti, about 10 miles (16 kilometers) from the capital, Chisinau. “This decision will influence our lives for decades to come.”

A campaign flyer handed out by young supporters at the rally said that criminal groups paid 15 million euros ($16.2 million) last month to 130,000 individuals in a major vote-buying scheme “to cause destabilization and chaos” in Moldova, a country of about 2.5 million.

The purported scheme revealed on Oct. 3, which allegedly paid people through Russian banks, was linked to Ilan Shor, an exiled pro-Russia oligarch whose populist Russia-friendly Shor Party was declared unconstitutional last year and banned. It heightened concerns that Moscow was stepping up efforts to undermine the pivotal votes.

Shor, who was convicted in absentia last year to 15 years in jail on fraud and money laundering in the case of $1 billion that went missing from Moldovan banks in 2014, denied allegations of illegally paying voters, saying “the payments are legal” and cited a right to freedom of expression.

Hours before Sandu’s appearance in Magdacesti on Thursday, Moldovan authorities said they foiled another plot in which more than 100 young Moldovans received training in Moscow by private military groups on how to create civil unrest, including using nonlethal weapons to create “mass disorder” around the two votes.

Some received “more advanced training in guerrilla camps" in Serbia and Bosnia, authorities said, and four were detained for 30 days.

A source close to law enforcement, who wasn't authorized to speak to the media about a sensitive national security matter, told The Associated Press that some of the young people implicated had criminal records or hailed from difficult families and were offered several thousand euros to attend.

“We expect Russian pressure to increase, not to decrease, and the closer we’ll be getting to the EU, the bigger the pressure will be from Russia,” said Stanislav Secrieru, the president’s national security adviser. “We’re trying to find the right balance between freedoms and security.”

He added that Moldovan law enforcement had strengthened in the face of “intensive hybrid attacks” against Moldova, a former Soviet republic, since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

Since then, Moldova has faced multiple crises including errant missiles landing on its territory, a severe energy crisis after Moscow dramatically reduced gas supplies, rampant inflation and recurring anti-government protests by pro-Russia parties. A pro-Western government has been in power since 2021, a year after Sandu won the presidency, and a parliamentary election will be held next year.

Moldovan authorities have repeatedly said that Russia is conducting a vast “hybrid war” against it — by funding pro-Moscow opposition groups, spreading disinformation, and meddling in local elections — to destabilize the country and try to derail its EU path.

These concerns were echoed by the U.S., U.K., and Canada this summer in a joint statement, which alleged “the Kremlin’s use of criminal groups" were trying to undermine Moldova’s democratic institutions. Russian actors, they said, were carrying out a plot to influence the outcomes of votes and “intend to incite protests” should the outcomes prove unfavorable to Moscow. Russia has repeatedly denied that it's interfering in Moldova.

In the bustling Stefan cel Mare park in central Chisinau, Ana Maria, a 30-year-old medical doctor, says the two upcoming votes will determine if Moldovans “are all on the same page” regarding EU integration, but is also concerned about Russian influence.

“I think that most of us have some family member working in the EU, or who lives or studies there, more than in Russia,” she said. “The Russian disinformation is rather worrying. It’s easier to maneuver people that are not well informed.”

In recent weeks, large social media platforms such as Meta and Telegram announced they had removed fake accounts in Moldova that railed against the EU, Sandu, and expressed “supportive commentary” about pro-Russia parties. The large majority of Moldovans speak Romanian as their first language, and the rest speak Russian.

Relations between Chisinau and Moscow significantly soured after Moldova applied to join the 27-nation EU in the wake of the war next door, and was granted candidate status in June 2022, alongside Ukraine, and agreed in June to start membership negotiations.

“We believe that by 2030, the Republic of Moldova will be ready for accession and we will work day and night for this goal,” Sandu said in Magdacesti, “but for that, we need the positive decision of our citizens.”

The latest polls indicate that Sandu is leading the presidential race with more than 35% of the vote, while Alexandr Stoianoglo, a pro-Russian former prosecutor general, trails her at around 10%. However, if Sandu fails to win an outright majority in the first round she could face Stoianoglo in a run-off two weeks later.

The EU referendum also shows a clear majority of more than 50% support the EU path but requires a one-third turnout to be valid. The polls also do not include Moldova's large diaspora, many of whom live and work in the EU.

Several analysts and officials the AP spoke to in Chisinau expressed concerns that the number of voters registered nationally exceeds the latest population data, and that the discrepancy means that more votes are needed for the EU referendum to reach the threshold.

Secrieru said Russian proxies could rally already established networks on the eve of the ballot urging them to boycott the EU vote. “What they think is realistic is to depress participation in order to kill the referendum,” he said. The same source told the AP that tactics could be employed on Sunday to create chaos by disrupting voting infrastructure with tactics such as false bomb threats or cyberattacks.

Iulian Groza, executive director of the Institute for European Policies and Reforms think tank, described the upcoming votes as a “historic moment” in which turnout will be key.

“The choice is clear: either Moldova adheres and continues to advance toward the West, toward accession to the European Union, or is dragged by Russia proxies back into the hands of Russian influence,” he told the AP in his downtown Chisinau office. “What will count very much is the ability of the citizens to mobilize … not to let others to choose their future."

Ivan Chesov, a 68-year-old retired construction engineer, said he believes that Moldova is “closer to Europe” and that people should express their wishes by casting their ballots.

“I think there are chances for the referendum to pass,” he said, “if people wake up and see the reality.”

Back at the rally in Magdacesti as night drew in and the young and old mingled in the cold, Sandu told locals that the EU would help Moldova to develop and modernize and urged them to vote.

“We have no time to wait ... so many years have passed in which Moldova did not develop as it could have developed,” she said.