A Cloudier Crystal Ball: The Wackiest 2012 Election Predictions
Politicos predict the darnedest things.
Nov. 1, 2012 — -- intro: As Election Day approaches, candidates, campaign staffers, supporters and journalists are trying to foresee the future. Will Obama win the women's vote? Can Romney hold on to the edge he got in the first presidential debate? Some say they have the answers to these questions.
But as with all fortune tellers, the crystal ball is sometimes cloudier for some than others, and some predictions sound a little bizarre. Why let the wackiest of predictions fade away into the recesses of time? Read on now to see what Republicans and Democrats are predicting, and remember to check back after Nov. 6 to see who came close and who was way off base.
Click here to see ABC News' predictions for how states will vote.
quicklist:1category: Newt Gingrichtitle: Romney will snag 300+ electoral votestext: Newt Gingrich believes his former opponent, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, will win the election against Barack Obama, and not just by a little bit.
Gingrich told Fox News' Greta Van Susteren on Oct. 25 that Romney is going to pick up more than 300 electoral votes and the Senate. Considering Romney is set to get about 191 votes from solidly red states, he would have to win almost 80 percent of the rest of the swing state electoral votes to get him to Gingrich's guess. While it isn't unfathomable, it's certainly a stretch.
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quicklist:2category: Dick Morristitle: Romney will win 320+ electoral votestext: As if Gingrich's prediction hadn't gone far enough, political commentator Dick Morris went a step further on Fox News the next night. Also speaking to Greta Van Susteren, Morris said Romney is going to sweep.
"I believe that if you look at the polls in Iowa, they have too many Democrats and too few Republicans, and proper polls in Iowa would show Romney 1 or 2 points ahead. But frankly, my view, Greta, is that Romney is going to win this election by more than 5 points and that he's going to get north of 320 electoral votes," Morris said.
Romney would have to win practically all the swing states in order to achieve that kind of victory.
To make your own predictions about who will win and how, try out OTUS News' Game Changer map.
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quicklist:3category: Nate Silvertitle: There's a 75 percent chance Obama winstext: Nate Silver, the writer behind the New York Times' 538 blog, caught a lot of backlash on Twitter this weekend for his assertion that President Obama had a 74.6 percent chance of winning the election, just under a week before Nov. 6.
Washington Post blogger Ezra Klein came to Silver's defense, claiming each pollster takes a turn on the receiving end of critics' wrath. Columbia Journalism Review also critiqued the critics, and the Atlantic Wire went so far as to mock those who attacked Silver.
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quicklist:4category: David Axelrodtitle: He bets his mustache ... text:The Obama campaign's senior strategist is so confident that his candidate will hold Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, he's betting his mustache on it.
Axelrod made the bet with "Morning Joe" host Joe Scarborough, saying that he would "shave off my moustache of 40 years if we lose any of those states," ABC News' Devin Dwyer reported.
A supporter of the American Mustache Institute expressed her displeasure with Axelrod's "reckless announcement" in the Washington Post.
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quicklist:5category: InTradetitle: Gary Johnson: America's 45th President?text: Using the online market site, InTrade, users can buy shares on the idea that Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson will be the next U.S. president. Shares cost a penny each.
Johnson will appear on ballots in 48 states and the District of Columbia on Election Day. But with 120,743 shares available, it seems not many are ready to bet on Johnson. InTrade ranks his odds at 0.1 percent.
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