Poll: Second Debate Changed Few Minds

Oct. 11, 2004— -- The second presidential debate left voter perceptions largely unchanged: Sen. John Kerry didn't further advance the gains he scored in the first debate, nor did President Bush either cede or reclaim ground.

Kerry remains more competitive in terms of personal popularity than he was before debate No. 1, an important improvement for him. But Bush continues to hold the upper hand on leadership, clarity, and the issues of Iraq and terrorism.

The race between them remains close: Fifty percent of likely voters prefer Bush, 46 percent Kerry, 1 percent Ralph Nader. These numbers have been quite stable, with Bush between 49 percent and 51 percent, and Kerry between 45 percent and 47 percent, since just before their first debate.

There's some room to move: Fifteen percent of likely voters say their minds are not definitely made up. But just 6 percent are either truly undecided or say there's a "good chance" they may change their minds.

There are essentially equal numbers of movables on each candidate's side — meaning they share the same opportunity, and the same vulnerability, among impressionable voters. That's what makes the debates potentially influential; the candidates meet Wednesday in their third and final debate, focused entirely on domestic issues.

Those issues could be fertile ground for Kerry, and they're of special interest to movable voters. Movables are more likely to cite either the economy or health care as the most important issue in their vote — issues on which Kerry is more competitive — and less likely to cite terrorism or Iraq, issues on which Bush is stronger.

But as important as appealing to movables on the issues is the challenge of getting them to turn out on Election Day. They tend to be following the race less closely.

One reason the second debate didn't shake up perceptions is the view that the candidates battled to a draw. Among all likely voters, 35 percent say Kerry won, 32 percent Bush. It also was a draw among debate viewers Friday night.

After the first debate, by contrast, viewers gave Kerry the win by a nine-point margin, and in interviews over the next two days, likely voters more broadly said he'd won by a much wider 52 percent-23 percent.